11/27/2024 Market Commentary

Rains have fallen across the Midwest and Great Plains, slowing post-harvest field work but helping the winter wheat crop. The USDA released November’s WADSE report, trimming back yields greater than expected: corn was cut by .7 bushels per acre, and soybean yield was trimmed back by 1.4 bu./ac. Trade had been expecting an increase in exports on the balance sheet, but corn remained unchanged and soybean exports were trimmed by 25 million bushels. Even with the changes, trade is comfortable with carryout numbers.

The U.S. Dollar has moved higher, making U.S. products more expensive, but fortunately, the rains increased river levels, cheapening barge freight and offsetting the strength of the dollar. The Feds also announced another rate cut of 25 basis points, and trade is looking to the potential of another cut in December. Soybean crush and ethanol production is strong, with new records last month. The demand for soy oil supports soy crush, a cheaper alternative to sunflower, palm and canola oil. China also is potentially reinstating the export taxes for used cooking oil.

Japan plans to increase its ethanol blending mandate to E10 by 2030 and E20 by 2040. Currently, Japan does not have the infrastructure to produce enough ethanol and will depend on imports, potentially from the U.S. In the future, trade will be closely watching for announcements from the Trump Administration on biofuels.

Brazil and China announced a partnership this month. China will invest in infrastructure development and technical assistance and expand Brazil’s sorghum exports to China. China currently accounts for 90% of U.S. sorghum exports, and Brazil only produces enough sorghum for its needs. This leaves the question of whether Brazil will shift acres to sorghum production or how it plays out.

Previous day prices

MarketMonthLastChange
CornMar4.3175-1.75
CHI Wheat   
KC Wheat   
MN Wheat   
Soybeans   
Soy Oil   
Soy Meal   
Live Cattle   
Ch Cutout   
Sel Cutout   
Feeder Index   
Lean Hogs   
Pork Cutout   
Crude Oil   
Dollar Index   
DOW   
National Corn Basis
   
National Bean Basis
   

Dates to Remember

Nov 21 – Export Sales
Nov 22 – Cattle on Feed
Nov 25 – Cold Storage
Nov 28 – Markets Closed

Hog Fundamentals

 CurrentOne Week AgoChangeOne Year AgoChange
Lead Month Future
 82.55    
National Cash 83.79    
Index 85.21    
Cutout 90.31    
IA/SMN Cash87.53     
IA/SMN Weights 210    
Slaughter2,525,000     

Cattle Fundamentals

 CurrentOne Week AgoChangeOne Year AgoChange
North Cash190.00188.00+2.00180.00*8.00
South Cash     
North Steer Basis+2.0+1.0-1.00.00+2.00
Choice Boxes311.22310.00-1.22  
Select Boxes275.900    
Spread35.32    
Carcass Weights835    
Slaughter610,000    
FC Index254.32    

Cash Cattle Markets

RegionThis WeekLast WeekLast Year
TX/OK/NMn/a$185.00$176.95
KSn/a$185.03$176.95
NEn/a$185.14$176.00
IA/MNn/a$184.50$176.65

1,000 head reportedly traded in NE at $290 dressed yesterday, which would be steady with a week ago, but that isn’t going to be enough to set the market. And I think most producers will be asking for higher money.

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 11/12/2024
CommodityCurrent Managed MoneyChangeCurrent Producer/CommercialChangeTotal OITotal OI Change
Live Cattle1084155098-1547502121 352,975
Feeder Cattle      
Lean Hogs      
Corn      
Soybeans      

Title title title

example chart

1,000 head reportedly traded in NE at $290 dressed yesterday, which would be steady with a week ago, but that isn’t going to be enough to set the market. And I think most producers will be asking for higher money. 1,000 head reportedly traded in NE at $290 dressed yesterday, which would be steady with a week ago, but that isn’t going to be enough to set the market.

Title title title

example chart

1,000 head reportedly traded in NE at $290 dressed yesterday, which would be steady with a week ago, but that isn’t going to be enough to set the market. And I think most producers will be asking for higher money. 1,000 head reportedly traded in NE at $290 dressed yesterday, which would be steady with a week ago, but that isn’t going to be enough to set the market.

Title title title

example chart

1,000 head reportedly traded in NE at $290 dressed yesterday, which would be steady with a week ago, but that isn’t going to be enough to set the market. And I think most producers will be asking for higher money. 1,000 head reportedly traded in NE at $290 dressed yesterday, which would be steady with a week ago, but that isn’t going to be enough to set the market.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.

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