Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern U.S. and Central Plains.
NEBRASKA
4809 S 114th St
Omaha, NE 68137
IOWA
4280 Sergeant Rd, Ste 240
Sioux City, IA 51106
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Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
Monday – Friday
8:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.
1/17/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Expectations for cash cattle at the beginning of the week were for a higher trade. 205 bids surfaced from a major packer early in the week in the north, while the feedlots were asking 208. The early steady bid gave the market a higher feel for the week, but with the board unable to continue to push higher on Thursday, cash trade took place at 203-204 for the majority of sales. April futures traded back to the contract high of 199.700 but were unable to take out that high and test the all time high of 199.825. Spec funds were carrying a long position of 143,000 contracts as of Tuesday January 7th, approaching their record long position of 154,000 contracts. With uncertainty surrounding inauguration day and a market holiday on Monday, the market had a “risk-off” feel on Thursday. Average carcass weights continue to increase. For the week ending January 4th, average carcass weights were 7 lbs higher on the week and now 39 lbs higher than the 3 year average.
Feeder Cattle: Cash feeder cattle continue to be nothing short of impressive. Tight supplies and high demand continue to drive the feeder cattle index higher and the futures are left to play catch up. The bull spreads are on full display as January will expire in 2 weeks and still at a $5+ discount to the cash index. An improving corn market appears to be keeping a lid on the deferred months as the market questions how long the feedlots can continue to pay these prices for feeder cattle while cost of gain is increasing. Funds currently holding a record long position in the feeder cattle complex. Talk of the Mexican border being opened on January 20th for feeder cattle imports seems to have stalled, or at the very least quieted down. Remember the border has been closed since Nov 22nd. There are 60 days worth of cattle that were planned to come to the U.S. that have not been moved. An open border will most definitely soften the U.S. feeder market to some extent, but it will take a long time to get that kind of inventory through the border, especially with new protocols.
Lean Hogs: Futures strung together a near $7 rally over a 10 day stretch, but failed with much follow through at resistance levels. New contract highs posted across the deferred contracts and there is some support against a lower market in those months. Cash markets are steady higher this week with a cutout that is steady lower. Front month futures feel comfortable in the mid to low 80s for the time being with an index that has been between 80.500 and 84.75 for the better part of 45 days. Mexico continues to be our biggest export customer, despite their currency weakening against the dollar. Definitely something to keep a close eye on going forward.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Jan 20 – No Markets
Jan 24 – Cattle on Feed
Jan 24 – Cold Storage
Jan 31 – Cattle Inventory
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/7/2025
Live Cattle Markets
All time high in Live Cattle futures was 199.825 in the April 2024 contract. Last Friday’s contract high for the April contract of 199.700 was matched on Wednesday. 199.700 is now the first resistance line with 199.825 next. Psychological resistance at 200.00. 195.325 should offer support along with the 20 day moving average at 195.125.
Feeder Cattle Markets
March is carrying the bulk of the open interest currently. Contract high at 271.000. Small support at Thursday’s low of 265.650. 263.250-263.500 is the next line of support.
Lean Hogs Markets
The April contract took out resistance at 90.750 middle of this week but failed to find follow through. Support at 88.25 with the 20 day MA and then 84.50-85.00 area.
Corn Markets
New highs for the move on Friday taking out small resistance at 479’6 in the March contract, now trading above 480 for the first time since 6/17/2024. Next resistance level on the charts is 488 from back in the middle of June. Currently have short term support between 475-480. Longer term support at 450-455.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.