Live Cattle: Live cattle finished the week sharply lower, breaking below some key support levels. Cash trade has been slow and sporadic. Feedlots traded cattle at 202-203 earlier this week in the south. The north held on in hopes of getting steady money but ended up trading the majority of cattle at 203. Boxed beef continues to move lower. Choice boxes are down $12.42 for the week and the choice/select spread has narrowed up $4.72. Neither give beef demand a warm fuzzy feeling. With a major packer not running on Monday and lighter daily kills throughout the remainder of the week, slaughter was down 23,000 head compared to an already small prior week. Open interest continues to escape the live cattle market as the managed money exits their record-long position from a few weeks ago.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures faired a little better this week. Finishing the week slightly higher, the charts look much better. The cash fundamentals have held together and demand seems to still be hanging strong. The feeder cattle index is $5.45 off its highs from two weeks ago, while the futures are nearly $13 off of their highs. Demand in sale barns remains strong as feedlots continue to have pens that need filled with less cattle available to buy. The Mexican border is now open for imports of feeder cattle. This should continue to soften the cash market as more supply is available, especially in the southern feeding states.
Lean Hogs: The cash fundamentals have been red hot in the hog complex and futures posted new contract highs this week as a result. Compared to last week, the national cash is up $4.52, the index up $3.01 and the cutout up $5.23. The cutout is back above $100 for the first time since November 11th. President Trump spoke yesterday on tariffs with Mexico and Canada, and as a reminder, the 30-day pause ends on March 4th. Mexico accounts for a large portion of the export market out of the U.S. and any sort of tariff or disruption of trade could be detrimental to hog and pork prices.
Corn: Corn futures continue to be well supported as fund buying continues. The market also received some help from the wheat market on Friday as traders are concerned about winter kill and new unknowns with conflict in Russia and Ukraine. Vice President Vance indicated that if a “peace deal” cannot be reached between the two countries, the U.S. will escalate the situation using the military. March futures traded right up to $5 on Friday and failed to find any follow-through at that level. Corn exports remain solid, although the USDA elected to make no changes to the balance sheet this week. Flash sales to Colombia this morning and Mexico early in the week keep exports ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach the USDA export goal. We are 45 days away from our first official look into the 2025 crop year and planted acres. The growing trend is that there will be more corn acres planted this year as the market incentivizes farmers to switch from other crops, especially soybeans. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we get through spring and the start of summer.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
March
496.25
2.75
CHI Wheat
March
600.00
22.25
KC Wheat
March
621.25
23.00
MN Wheat
March
633.50
16.75
Soybeans
March
1036.00
6.00
Soy Oil
March
46.07
0.18
Soy Meal
March
295.90
3.20
Live Cattle
April
194.250
2.275
Feeder Cattle
March
266.350
1.625
Lean Hogs
April
92.600
0.500
Crude Oil
March
70.70
0.58
Ch Cutout
315.14
2.26
Sel Cutout
308.55
1.29
Feeder Index
276.23
1.81
Pork Cutout
100.87
2.24
Dollar Index
106.726
0.587
DOW
44,593
117
National Corn Basis
-32.28
0
National Bean Basis
-63.26
0.77
Dates to Remember
Feb 17- No Markets
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
89.475
87.250
2.23
75.175
14.300
National Cash
90.75
86.23
4.52
68.21
22.54
Index
88.06
85.05
3.01
75.12
12.94
Cutout
100.87
95.64
5.23
86.70
14.17
IA/SMN Cash
90.73
86.98
3.75
68.51
22.22
IA/SMN Weights
290.00
290.70
0.70
288.70
1.30
Slaughter
2,540,000
2,536,000
4,000
2,549,726
9,726
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
203-204
208.00
4-5 Lower
179.98
23.52
South Cash
202-203
205.89
2-4 Lower
179.86
22.64
North Steer Basis
4.50
6.50
2.00
-3.22
7.72
Choice Boxes
315.14
327.56
12.42
294.00
21.14
Select Boxes
308.55
316.25
7.70
284.02
24.53
Spread
6.59
11.31
4.72
9.98
3.39
Carcass Weights
875
872
3
831
44
Slaughter
561,000
584,000
23,000
608,466
47,466
FC Index
276.23
277.64
1.41
246.66
29.57
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
202-203
$205.86
$180.11
KS
202-203
$205.89
$179.86
NE
203-205
$208.00
$179.98
IA/MN
203-205
$207.14
$180.84
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/4/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
150,374
6,535
-183,969
6,104
366,027
250
Feeder Cattle
28,175
704
-10,875
773
78,194
395
Lean Hogs
95,329
3,392
-150,451
2,618
325,091
3,576
Corn
364,217
13,496
-643,777
14,874
2,032,212
895
Soybeans
57,029
533
-147,685
1,908
894,746
21
Live Cattle Markets
Live cattle futures took out bottom side support today. The support levels at 195.325 and the 195.000 area both gave way in the April contract and traded to fresh lows for the move. There is small support at 193.000 but nothing major until 188.300. The 100 and 200-day MA will both need to be crossed to get to those levels.
Feeder Cattle Markets
The feeder cattle charts have held together better than the live cattle charts. Support still remains at 263.000-263.500 after the 50-day MA at 264.775. Topside resistance remains at the 20-day MA of 270.425.
Lean Hogs Markets
New contract highs across all months on Wednesday. That will be the resistance above the market with the April contract at 94.750. Support under the market will be at the 20-day MA of 90.400, and a gap to fill at 89.900.
Corn Markets
Corn pushed higher and posted new highs for the move on Friday. 499 3/4 and 500 will be topside resistance for the March contract. Support is at 489 1/2 with the 20-day MA and then 481 1/2.
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2/14/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live cattle finished the week sharply lower, breaking below some key support levels. Cash trade has been slow and sporadic. Feedlots traded cattle at 202-203 earlier this week in the south. The north held on in hopes of getting steady money but ended up trading the majority of cattle at 203. Boxed beef continues to move lower. Choice boxes are down $12.42 for the week and the choice/select spread has narrowed up $4.72. Neither give beef demand a warm fuzzy feeling. With a major packer not running on Monday and lighter daily kills throughout the remainder of the week, slaughter was down 23,000 head compared to an already small prior week. Open interest continues to escape the live cattle market as the managed money exits their record-long position from a few weeks ago.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures faired a little better this week. Finishing the week slightly higher, the charts look much better. The cash fundamentals have held together and demand seems to still be hanging strong. The feeder cattle index is $5.45 off its highs from two weeks ago, while the futures are nearly $13 off of their highs. Demand in sale barns remains strong as feedlots continue to have pens that need filled with less cattle available to buy. The Mexican border is now open for imports of feeder cattle. This should continue to soften the cash market as more supply is available, especially in the southern feeding states.
Lean Hogs: The cash fundamentals have been red hot in the hog complex and futures posted new contract highs this week as a result. Compared to last week, the national cash is up $4.52, the index up $3.01 and the cutout up $5.23. The cutout is back above $100 for the first time since November 11th. President Trump spoke yesterday on tariffs with Mexico and Canada, and as a reminder, the 30-day pause ends on March 4th. Mexico accounts for a large portion of the export market out of the U.S. and any sort of tariff or disruption of trade could be detrimental to hog and pork prices.
Corn: Corn futures continue to be well supported as fund buying continues. The market also received some help from the wheat market on Friday as traders are concerned about winter kill and new unknowns with conflict in Russia and Ukraine. Vice President Vance indicated that if a “peace deal” cannot be reached between the two countries, the U.S. will escalate the situation using the military. March futures traded right up to $5 on Friday and failed to find any follow-through at that level. Corn exports remain solid, although the USDA elected to make no changes to the balance sheet this week. Flash sales to Colombia this morning and Mexico early in the week keep exports ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach the USDA export goal. We are 45 days away from our first official look into the 2025 crop year and planted acres. The growing trend is that there will be more corn acres planted this year as the market incentivizes farmers to switch from other crops, especially soybeans. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we get through spring and the start of summer.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 17- No Markets
Feb 21- Cattle on Feed
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/4/2025
Live Cattle Markets
Live cattle futures took out bottom side support today. The support levels at 195.325 and the 195.000 area both gave way in the April contract and traded to fresh lows for the move. There is small support at 193.000 but nothing major until 188.300. The 100 and 200-day MA will both need to be crossed to get to those levels.
Feeder Cattle Markets
The feeder cattle charts have held together better than the live cattle charts. Support still remains at 263.000-263.500 after the 50-day MA at 264.775. Topside resistance remains at the 20-day MA of 270.425.
Lean Hogs Markets
New contract highs across all months on Wednesday. That will be the resistance above the market with the April contract at 94.750. Support under the market will be at the 20-day MA of 90.400, and a gap to fill at 89.900.
Corn Markets
Corn pushed higher and posted new highs for the move on Friday. 499 3/4 and 500 will be topside resistance for the March contract. Support is at 489 1/2 with the 20-day MA and then 481 1/2.