Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have started the week higher following support from the mildly friendly cattle on feed report on Friday. Estimated kill for last week was 563,000, up 2,000 from the previous week, but still poor overall. The lack of kill has caused boxed beef values to increase, and seasonally, prices usually continue to climb from this point. Choice was 1.99 higher this morning to 315.72 while select was 2.20 higher at 306.17. Cash cattle traded lower for the third week in a row on limited volume, giving the industry a feeling that the packers may be a little short-bought heading into this week. Carcass weights have continued to stabilize for the time being, currently running the same week over week but well above a year ago and the 3-year average.
Feeder Cattle: In a blink of an eye, feeder cattle futures have gained back $11+ in two weeks. Cash feeder cattle in sale barns have yet to see a big correction and the board is forced to converge with the index. According to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, Texas placements were down 14% compared to a year ago. Most of this can be attributed to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle which limited the supply of cattle for the feed yards. We have yet to see the full scope of impact from the import restrictions in terms of supplies to feed yards and in turn, ready fat cattle. Managed money continues to buy feeder cattle as tight supplies persist.
Lean Hogs: April Lean Hogs finished lower for the 8th day in a row. The decline in the futures began with deteriorating cash fundamentals and now politics are the top headline as President Trump stated that tariffs are still set to go into effect at the beginning of March after a 30-day delay. The pork cutout continues to be volatile. After a sharp correction lower, it has rebounded $4 off the lows. Open interest in the Lean Hog complex continues to decline on what appears to be fund-long liquidation. The CFTC report on Friday will shed light on the current state of the managed money position but with the decrease in open interest, we should see a large decrease in their long position.
Corn: Corn futures finished the day lower for the 3rd straight day. After testing very stout resistance levels last week, futures have set back close to 18 cents over the last 5 days. Managed money continues to carry a large long position for this time of year and the funds appear to be losing confidence that corn needs to be at this level or higher. Corn exports remain strong. Tariffs with Mexico are a sensitive subject in the corn market as Mexico continues to be one of the largest buyers of U.S. corn. The crop insurance spring price will be set by the end of the week and will give guaranteed levels for the 2025 crop.
Closing Prices
Corn
May
494.75
2.25
CHI Wheat
May
588.75
4.75
KC Wheat
May
606.75
2.75
MN Wheat
May
631.00
4.75
Soybeans
May
1049.25
1.75
Soy Oil
May
45.98
0.32
Soy Meal
May
302.90
2.00
Live Cattle
April
195.725
0.625
Feeder Cattle
April
273.800
1.775
Lean Hogs
April
86.575
0.825
Crude Oil
April
68.97
1.73
Ch Cutout
315.72
1.99
Sel Cutout
306.17
2.20
Feeder Index
279.37
0.52
Pork Cutout
98.43
1.36
Dollar Index
106.240
0.269
DOW
43,576
41
National Corn Basis
-30.58
0.46
National Bean Basis
-60.47
1.16
Dates to Remember
Feb 26- Cold Storage Report
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Perspective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
86.575
93.200
6.625
86.275
0.300
National Cash
88.60
89.51
0.91
70.91
17.69
Index
89.68
89.49
0.19
79.46
10.22
Cutout
98.43
102.47
4.04
90.99
7.44
IA/SMN Cash
87.66
90.78
3.12
72.05
15.61
IA/SMN Weights
289.60
290.00
0.40
288.00
1.60
Slaughter
2,536,000
2,529,000
7,000
2,576,946
40,946
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
199.61
183.44
South Cash
198.96
182.81
North Steer Basis
3.00
-3.22
Choice Boxes
315.72
316.73
1.01
301.79
13.93
Select Boxes
306.17
303.94
2.20
287.99
18.18
Spread
9.55
12.79
3.24
13.80
4.25
Carcass Weights
875
875
0
829
46
Slaughter
563,000
561,000
2,000
590,486
27,486
FC Index
279.37
277.99
1.35
246.64
32.73
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$199.00
$182.74
KS
$198.96
$182.81
NE
$199.61
$183.44
IA/MN
$200.21
$183.58
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/18/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
128,469
7,240
-170,749
2,704
362,981
295
Feeder Cattle
30,069
1,702
-11,404
906
79,203
671
Lean Hogs
114,148
11,522
-160,605
6,182
300,958
1,468
Corn
353,533
21,144
-638,930
22,352
1,946,941
21,997
Soybeans
16,526
11,949
-99,953
18,442
859,454
13,019
Live Cattle Markets
Resistance in April Live Cattle is at 197.050 followed by the 20-day MA at 197.875. Support on the bottom side will be at last week’s lows around 193.000.
Feeder Cattle Markets
After spending most of the month of February between the 20-day and 50-day MA, feeders broke out to the topside. Resistance above the market is at 275.750. Support under the market is the 20-day MA of 269.375.
Lean Hogs Markets
April Lean Hogs got right down to major support today. 86.350 is major support for the April contract. 90.375 will be the first line of resistance.
Corn Markets
May corn broke through bottom side at 495. Now support in the May contract will be at 484. 515 3/4 will be resistance above the market.
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2/25/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have started the week higher following support from the mildly friendly cattle on feed report on Friday. Estimated kill for last week was 563,000, up 2,000 from the previous week, but still poor overall. The lack of kill has caused boxed beef values to increase, and seasonally, prices usually continue to climb from this point. Choice was 1.99 higher this morning to 315.72 while select was 2.20 higher at 306.17. Cash cattle traded lower for the third week in a row on limited volume, giving the industry a feeling that the packers may be a little short-bought heading into this week. Carcass weights have continued to stabilize for the time being, currently running the same week over week but well above a year ago and the 3-year average.
Feeder Cattle: In a blink of an eye, feeder cattle futures have gained back $11+ in two weeks. Cash feeder cattle in sale barns have yet to see a big correction and the board is forced to converge with the index. According to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, Texas placements were down 14% compared to a year ago. Most of this can be attributed to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle which limited the supply of cattle for the feed yards. We have yet to see the full scope of impact from the import restrictions in terms of supplies to feed yards and in turn, ready fat cattle. Managed money continues to buy feeder cattle as tight supplies persist.
Lean Hogs: April Lean Hogs finished lower for the 8th day in a row. The decline in the futures began with deteriorating cash fundamentals and now politics are the top headline as President Trump stated that tariffs are still set to go into effect at the beginning of March after a 30-day delay. The pork cutout continues to be volatile. After a sharp correction lower, it has rebounded $4 off the lows. Open interest in the Lean Hog complex continues to decline on what appears to be fund-long liquidation. The CFTC report on Friday will shed light on the current state of the managed money position but with the decrease in open interest, we should see a large decrease in their long position.
Corn: Corn futures finished the day lower for the 3rd straight day. After testing very stout resistance levels last week, futures have set back close to 18 cents over the last 5 days. Managed money continues to carry a large long position for this time of year and the funds appear to be losing confidence that corn needs to be at this level or higher. Corn exports remain strong. Tariffs with Mexico are a sensitive subject in the corn market as Mexico continues to be one of the largest buyers of U.S. corn. The crop insurance spring price will be set by the end of the week and will give guaranteed levels for the 2025 crop.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Feb 26- Cold Storage Report
Feb 28- February Live Cattle Expiration
Mar 11- WASDE Report
Mar 31- Perspective Planting Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 2/18/2025
Live Cattle Markets
Resistance in April Live Cattle is at 197.050 followed by the 20-day MA at 197.875. Support on the bottom side will be at last week’s lows around 193.000.
Feeder Cattle Markets
After spending most of the month of February between the 20-day and 50-day MA, feeders broke out to the topside. Resistance above the market is at 275.750. Support under the market is the 20-day MA of 269.375.
Lean Hogs Markets
April Lean Hogs got right down to major support today. 86.350 is major support for the April contract. 90.375 will be the first line of resistance.
Corn Markets
May corn broke through bottom side at 495. Now support in the May contract will be at 484. 515 3/4 will be resistance above the market.