Live Cattle: Live cattle futures have continued to be volatile to begin the week. After opening sharply lower on Monday, futures rebounded and were as much as $1.200/cwt higher on false rumors that tariff deals were put on a 90-day hold. Once those rumors were confirmed to be untrue, the market settled back in sharply lower for the day. Tuesday brought a new day and the market opened sharply higher before falling lower and finishing mixed. The cattle complex is keeping a close eye on the equity markets and trading in tandem with the DOW and S&P. There were a few head in Iowa that traded on Tuesday to a Nebraska regional from 332-335. This is lower than a week ago as hedgers are now staring at a rather large basis for this time period. It will be interesting to see where the bulk of cash trade takes place this week as packers still have limited inventory but attempt to use the fall in futures to shake lose hedged cattle.
Feeder Cattle: The bull spreads are in full force in the feeder cattle complex as cash feeders refuse to break lower. Most barns are quoting cattle lower but on limited numbers, however, as a whole the CME feeder cattle index is holding steady. Monday’s sales averaged $290.53 and were up $.53 from Friday’s sales. Many barns are seeing light volume this week as many producers are cancelling consignments due to the futures market moving sharply lower to finish last week. Open interest has declined from its record numbers that we have seen over the last month, but not as quickly as one would suspect. It sure appears that there is fund liquidation taking place, especially in the most active May contract.
Lean Hogs: Lean hog futures failed to hold the early gains on Tuesday and finished mixed. Cash fundamentals have turned lower after a six week stretch of holding steady. The pork cutout has actually worked higher over the past week and is now near the highest levels that market has seen in nearly a month. February export data was released yesterday, and pork exports have decreased year over year. Total shipments in February equaled 565 million pounds which was down 5% from February 2024. Japan’s purchases have moved lower while Mexico has held steady. Through February, total pork exports are down 3% compared to a year ago.
Corn: Nearby futures have now finished higher three days in a row, pushing the market to some very key technical levels. Moving averages and chart resistance all come together around the 470 level in the May contract. Export sales of 240,000 metric tons of corn to Spain announced this morning offered support to the market. The USDA will release their monthly WASDE report on Thursday. Estimates are showing a small decrease in carryout compared to a month ago. All eyes will be on demand and what the USDA does to export demand. Currently, the U.S. is running roughly 175 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to reach the current export goal. With all of the tariff talks that are currently happening, the question is whether the USDA will increase export demand to better align with actual exports, or kick the can down the road another month and see how exports are affected by the tariffs.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
May
469.00
4.50
CHI Wheat
May
540.00
3.50
KC Wheat
May
561.50
2.25
MN Wheat
May
601.00
7.00
Soybeans
May
992.75
9.75
Soy Oil
May
44.94
0.21
Soy Meal
May
291.00
2.60
Live Cattle
April
199.100
0.175
Feeder Cattle
April
280.425
2.600
Lean Hogs
April
87.825
0.025
Crude Oil
May
59.08
1.62
Ch Cutout
339.53
0.03
Sel Cutout
324.39
5.09
Feeder Index
290.53
0.53
Pork Cutout
97.27
1.50
Dollar Index
102.966
0.2900
DOW
38,064
98
National Corn Basis
-28.02
0.58
National Bean Basis
-58.17
0.70
Dates to Remember
April 10- WASDE Report
April 15- NOPA Crush
April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
84.600
87.375
2.775
90.600
6.000
National Cash
84.98
88.49
3.51
93.77
8.79
Index
88.19
88.50
0.31
88.78
0.59
Cutout
97.27
97.45
0.18
100.71
3.44
IA/SMN Cash
84.36
88.78
4.42
93.20
8.84
IA/SMN Weights
291.40
290.70
0.70
287.10
4.30
Slaughter
2,520,000
2,480,000
40,000
2,408,223
111,777
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
211.21
South Cash
207.88
North Steer Basis
4.50
7.10
Choice Boxes
339.53
342.86
3.33
302.07
37.46
Select Boxes
324.39
322.21
2.18
300.27
24.12
Spread
15.14
20.65
5.51
1.80
13.34
Carcass Weights
871
871
0
847
24
Slaughter
591,000
609,000
18,000
614,045
23,045
FC Index
290.53
291.02
0.49
248.62
41.91
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$208.10
$181.96
KS
$207.88
$182.07
NE
$211.21
$184.25
IA/MN
$212.48
$184.99
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/1/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
142,777
4,885
-185,050
3,560
374,269
15,336
Feeder Cattle
33,369
763
-13,537
93
73,197
4,084
Lean Hogs
55,326
3,960
-113,483
3,221
274,937
2,110
Corn
56,757
17,850
-336,744
32,261
1,837,173
41,570
Soybeans
-29,847
13,112
-103,140
18,617
880,021
17,394
Live Cattle Markets
June live cattle posted a new low on Tuesday. Support will be at today’s low of 193.400 followed by the 100-day MA of 192.225. Resistance above the market is at 198.200 and then the 20-day MA of 201.675.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May feeder cattle held near the 100-day MA on Monday. Support under the market is at the 100-day MA of 267.750 followed by 267.200 and then 265.200. Resistance above the market is in the 275.000 area.
Lean Hogs Markets
June lean hogs posted a new low for the move on Monday. Support is at yesterday’s low of 88.700 and then 85.750. Resistance will begin at 92.500 followed by 95.000.
Corn Markets
May corn stalled out at the 100-day MA of 469, this will remain resistance going forward. 470 1/4 is also resistance. Support below the market is at the 20-day MA of 460 1/4 and the 200-day MA of 453.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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4/8/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live cattle futures have continued to be volatile to begin the week. After opening sharply lower on Monday, futures rebounded and were as much as $1.200/cwt higher on false rumors that tariff deals were put on a 90-day hold. Once those rumors were confirmed to be untrue, the market settled back in sharply lower for the day. Tuesday brought a new day and the market opened sharply higher before falling lower and finishing mixed. The cattle complex is keeping a close eye on the equity markets and trading in tandem with the DOW and S&P. There were a few head in Iowa that traded on Tuesday to a Nebraska regional from 332-335. This is lower than a week ago as hedgers are now staring at a rather large basis for this time period. It will be interesting to see where the bulk of cash trade takes place this week as packers still have limited inventory but attempt to use the fall in futures to shake lose hedged cattle.
Feeder Cattle: The bull spreads are in full force in the feeder cattle complex as cash feeders refuse to break lower. Most barns are quoting cattle lower but on limited numbers, however, as a whole the CME feeder cattle index is holding steady. Monday’s sales averaged $290.53 and were up $.53 from Friday’s sales. Many barns are seeing light volume this week as many producers are cancelling consignments due to the futures market moving sharply lower to finish last week. Open interest has declined from its record numbers that we have seen over the last month, but not as quickly as one would suspect. It sure appears that there is fund liquidation taking place, especially in the most active May contract.
Lean Hogs: Lean hog futures failed to hold the early gains on Tuesday and finished mixed. Cash fundamentals have turned lower after a six week stretch of holding steady. The pork cutout has actually worked higher over the past week and is now near the highest levels that market has seen in nearly a month. February export data was released yesterday, and pork exports have decreased year over year. Total shipments in February equaled 565 million pounds which was down 5% from February 2024. Japan’s purchases have moved lower while Mexico has held steady. Through February, total pork exports are down 3% compared to a year ago.
Corn: Nearby futures have now finished higher three days in a row, pushing the market to some very key technical levels. Moving averages and chart resistance all come together around the 470 level in the May contract. Export sales of 240,000 metric tons of corn to Spain announced this morning offered support to the market. The USDA will release their monthly WASDE report on Thursday. Estimates are showing a small decrease in carryout compared to a month ago. All eyes will be on demand and what the USDA does to export demand. Currently, the U.S. is running roughly 175 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to reach the current export goal. With all of the tariff talks that are currently happening, the question is whether the USDA will increase export demand to better align with actual exports, or kick the can down the road another month and see how exports are affected by the tariffs.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
April 10- WASDE Report
April 15- NOPA Crush
April 30- April Live Cattle Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 4/1/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June live cattle posted a new low on Tuesday. Support will be at today’s low of 193.400 followed by the 100-day MA of 192.225. Resistance above the market is at 198.200 and then the 20-day MA of 201.675.
Feeder Cattle Markets
May feeder cattle held near the 100-day MA on Monday. Support under the market is at the 100-day MA of 267.750 followed by 267.200 and then 265.200. Resistance above the market is in the 275.000 area.
Lean Hogs Markets
June lean hogs posted a new low for the move on Monday. Support is at yesterday’s low of 88.700 and then 85.750. Resistance will begin at 92.500 followed by 95.000.
Corn Markets
May corn stalled out at the 100-day MA of 469, this will remain resistance going forward. 470 1/4 is also resistance. Support below the market is at the 20-day MA of 460 1/4 and the 200-day MA of 453.