4/15/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Cash trade last week was down $3.50 compared to the week prior in all regions. Volume was small all around, but extremely small in Kansas where there were less than 2,000 head negotiated. Trade should take place earlier in the week this week as there are no markets on Friday and packers seem to need a few cattle to finish out next week’s kill. Slaughter on Monday was 112,000 head, up 8,000 from last Monday. Expectations for slaughter this week are for 570-575k head, which seems like a pretty lofty goal for a holiday week. Open interest has decreased drastically over the past 15 days as many are moving away from the cattle complex. At the end of March, open interest was the highest it had been in over 6 years and has now settled into a more “normal” area. Managed money has lowered their long position over the last three weeks and are now long just over 118,000 contracts which is a large decrease from the record long of 156,909 contracts less than a month ago. Estimates for Thursday’s Cattle on Feed Report are 98.3% cattle on feed, placements up 4.2% compared to last year, and marketings up .6%.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures have rallied more than $15 from last Monday’s low, filling the gap left on the chart, and running right into the 20-day MA. The CME feeder cattle index that had began to drift lower for a couple days is now trending back higher. Cash feeders across the countryside continue to set new all-time highs as demand for those feeders is high and supply is tight. April feeder cattle expire this Thursday and will need to be in line with that index at expiration. Open interest has escaped the feeder cattle complex but not to the extent seen in the live cattle. As of last Tuesday, the funds were long over 28,000 contracts, down 5,300 on the week and just off their all-time record position.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded back into some very interesting chart areas on Monday and found follow-through support early on Tuesday. There was a gap left ten days ago and that lined up perfectly with the 20-day MA in most contract months. With the follow-through today, the chart picture looks much better and creates some space for the market to trade higher. The cash fundamentals continue to erode lower being lead by the cutout. There seems to be a bit of uncertainty surrounding demand, exports mainly, as the ongoing tariffs and trade war persists. Mexico has become the biggest customer for U.S. pork over the last few years, and even a slowdown in that demand stream would create ample supplies of pork in the United States. Iowa/Southern Minnesota weights continue to climb, up .6 lbs last week and now 4 lbs above a year ago. This does not seem like a problem of not being current with marketings, but rather economic incentive to the producers to add more weight to hogs.

Corn: Corn futures broke their 6-day streak of finishing higher on Monday after gaining over 45 cents since the Prospective Planting Report. There have been flash sales of export both days this week: 120,000 metric tonnes to Japan on Monday and 110,000 metric tonnes to Portugal this morning. U.S. exports continue to be strong and are currently 175 million bushel ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s export projection. The Export Inspections Report yesterday showed 72 million bushels of corn loadings, the second highest week of the marketing year and well above last year and the 5-year average. The USDA Crop Progress Report that was released yesterday afternoon showed corn planting at 4% complete, slightly below last year and the 5-year average.