Live Cattle: Cash cattle traded at new all-time highs again this week, and sharply higher at that. Northern cash trade took place on Thursday from 225-228 and mostly 355 on a dressed basis. Cash in the South started on Monday morning at 218 and traded as high as 220 later in the week. There are a few packers that have some inventory around them and cattle that were bought this week will not be slaughtered for a few weeks. There are mixed feelings on that topic. The packers having inventory on hand will reduce the need to buy as many cattle over the next couple weeks, but the fact they are willing to pay an all-time high price for those cattle and keep inventory around at these prices seems to imply that there are not a lot of market-ready cattle throughout the countryside. Boxed beef was higher this week but feels like the $350 area is about as high as it can get pushed. The choice/select spread did narrow up again this week and is now just above $14. Fund buying continues to be the feature within the complex as all futures months are at a steep discount to the current cash market. Skepticism remains as to the longevity of this cash market but every week of steady or higher cash entices the funds to stay long or add to that position.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded over 300.000 for the first time ever this week and removed the psychological ceiling from the market. There were multiple times that the market traded back below that mark this week but August did settle above, and that will be a positive look for the charts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is currently at 296.14. Just off its highs, but still at all-time record levels. Cash feeders are all but unbelievable as everyday new records are set in sale barns, and demand remains strong.
Lean Hogs: The nearby Lean Hog contracts finished the day slightly higher but still results in a lower week. June closed at 97.575 which is 1.775 lower on the week. Cash fundamentals remain strong as cash hogs trade 4-5 higher than the current Lean Hog Index. The weekly export report released on Thursday showed pork sales were at 24K tonnes, Mexico accounted for 10K tonnes and China was virtually zero. This weekend President Trump and China will be holding meetings to discuss the tariffs that both countries have implemented. Hopefully, the pork market will see some positive news in these meetings to help the cutout break the flat cycle that we see weighing on the June futures.
Corn: The corn market traded to new lows for 2025 this week due to a lack of threatening weather to get the U.S. corn crop planted and limited bullish news to feed the market. Export sales for last week were the highest in the last three months and shows continued excellent export demand for U.S. corn. Currently the U.S. is 100 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA export goal for this marketing year. Crop conditions in South America continue to improve, especially the Argentine corn crop which is 42% good to excellent, the best in five years. Planting progress will make a big jump over the next week as farmers plant large estimated corn acres. Summer weather is looking warmer and drier, but at the current time, the managed money is not concerned and is not building a long position.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
449.75
2.25
CHI Wheat
July
521.75
7.50
KC Wheat
July
517.50
7.25
MN Wheat
July
593.50
7.25
Soybeans
July
1051.75
6.75
Soy Oil
July
48.57
0.12
Soy Meal
July
294.10
0.60
Live Cattle
June
214.675
0.425
Feeder Cattle
May
297.975
0.500
Lean Hogs
June
97.575
0.400
Crude Oil
June
60.97
1.06
Ch Cutout
346.53
1.36
Sel Cutout
332.52
0.68
Feeder Index
296.14
0.36
Pork Cutout
94.50
1.04
Dollar Index
100.341
0.2990
DOW
41,286
82
National Corn Basis
-28.27
0.05
National Bean Basis
-52.09
0.60
Dates to Remember
May 12- WASDE
May 23- Cattle on Feed
May 23- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
90.375
92.950
2.575
91.975
1.600
National Cash
94.02
92.39
1.63
89.35
4.67
Index
90.07
89.57
0.50
91.32
1.25
Cutout
94.50
96.46
1.96
98.43
3.93
IA/SMN Cash
94.05
92.93
1.12
90.07
3.98
IA/SMN Weights
290.50
291.60
1.10
288.10
2.40
Slaughter
2,437,000
2,486,000
49,000
2,380,123
56,877
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
225-228
222.41
5-8 Higher
186.48
40.02
South Cash
218-220
217.00
2-4 Higher
184.12
34.88
North Steer Basis
14.00
6.00
8.00
9.78
4.22
Choice Boxes
346.53
342.94
3.59
295.39
51.14
Select Boxes
332.52
325.64
6.88
285.76
46.76
Spread
14.01
17.30
3.29
9.63
4.38
Carcass Weights
877
878
1
848
29
Slaughter
559,000
559,000
0
615,769
56,769
FC Index
296.14
296.38
0.24
240.38
55.76
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
218-219
$217.34
$183.97
KS
218-220
$217.00
$184.12
NE
225-228
$222.41
$186.48
IA/MN
225-228
$222.01
$186.74
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 5/6/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
133,338
4,498
-171,155
1,384
380,826
2,057
Feeder Cattle
29,442
1,541
-11,480
264
74,665
1,929
Lean Hogs
70,622
2,979
-120,243
834
269,563
50
Corn
13,893
57,436
-273,392
66,328
1,584,263
26,996
Soybeans
21,870
16,332
-146,322
10,524
798,910
5,894
Live Cattle Markets
June Live cattle posted new contract highs again on Friday. Resistance will be at that high of 215.600 and then 217.675. Longer term resistance will be in the 221.000 area before expiration. Support lies at 211.000 and then the 208.000 area.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder cattle made it through the 300.000 level this week and posted a contract high of 301.900 on Friday. 301.900 will be resistance. Support will be the 300.000 area followed by the 20-day MA of 293.725.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs have traded into an area with a lot of support and resistance around the market. Support under the market remains in the 96.750-97.000 area and the 200-day MA of 97.025. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 98.200, the 100-day MA of 99.200 and chart resistance at 101.975.
Corn Markets
July Corn posted new lows for 2025 during Thursday’s trade before finishing higher Friday. Support is at yesterday’s low of 442 1/4 and then 436 3/4. Resistance will be at the 100-day MA of 461 1/4 and then the 475 area.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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5/9/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Cash cattle traded at new all-time highs again this week, and sharply higher at that. Northern cash trade took place on Thursday from 225-228 and mostly 355 on a dressed basis. Cash in the South started on Monday morning at 218 and traded as high as 220 later in the week. There are a few packers that have some inventory around them and cattle that were bought this week will not be slaughtered for a few weeks. There are mixed feelings on that topic. The packers having inventory on hand will reduce the need to buy as many cattle over the next couple weeks, but the fact they are willing to pay an all-time high price for those cattle and keep inventory around at these prices seems to imply that there are not a lot of market-ready cattle throughout the countryside. Boxed beef was higher this week but feels like the $350 area is about as high as it can get pushed. The choice/select spread did narrow up again this week and is now just above $14. Fund buying continues to be the feature within the complex as all futures months are at a steep discount to the current cash market. Skepticism remains as to the longevity of this cash market but every week of steady or higher cash entices the funds to stay long or add to that position.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded over 300.000 for the first time ever this week and removed the psychological ceiling from the market. There were multiple times that the market traded back below that mark this week but August did settle above, and that will be a positive look for the charts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is currently at 296.14. Just off its highs, but still at all-time record levels. Cash feeders are all but unbelievable as everyday new records are set in sale barns, and demand remains strong.
Lean Hogs: The nearby Lean Hog contracts finished the day slightly higher but still results in a lower week. June closed at 97.575 which is 1.775 lower on the week. Cash fundamentals remain strong as cash hogs trade 4-5 higher than the current Lean Hog Index. The weekly export report released on Thursday showed pork sales were at 24K tonnes, Mexico accounted for 10K tonnes and China was virtually zero. This weekend President Trump and China will be holding meetings to discuss the tariffs that both countries have implemented. Hopefully, the pork market will see some positive news in these meetings to help the cutout break the flat cycle that we see weighing on the June futures.
Corn: The corn market traded to new lows for 2025 this week due to a lack of threatening weather to get the U.S. corn crop planted and limited bullish news to feed the market. Export sales for last week were the highest in the last three months and shows continued excellent export demand for U.S. corn. Currently the U.S. is 100 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA export goal for this marketing year. Crop conditions in South America continue to improve, especially the Argentine corn crop which is 42% good to excellent, the best in five years. Planting progress will make a big jump over the next week as farmers plant large estimated corn acres. Summer weather is looking warmer and drier, but at the current time, the managed money is not concerned and is not building a long position.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
May 12- WASDE
May 23- Cattle on Feed
May 23- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 5/6/2025
Live Cattle Markets
June Live cattle posted new contract highs again on Friday. Resistance will be at that high of 215.600 and then 217.675. Longer term resistance will be in the 221.000 area before expiration. Support lies at 211.000 and then the 208.000 area.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder cattle made it through the 300.000 level this week and posted a contract high of 301.900 on Friday. 301.900 will be resistance. Support will be the 300.000 area followed by the 20-day MA of 293.725.
Lean Hogs Markets
June Lean Hogs have traded into an area with a lot of support and resistance around the market. Support under the market remains in the 96.750-97.000 area and the 200-day MA of 97.025. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 98.200, the 100-day MA of 99.200 and chart resistance at 101.975.
Corn Markets
July Corn posted new lows for 2025 during Thursday’s trade before finishing higher Friday. Support is at yesterday’s low of 442 1/4 and then 436 3/4. Resistance will be at the 100-day MA of 461 1/4 and then the 475 area.