Live Cattle: Rumors of screwworm entering into the state of Missouri led to a free fall within the cattle complex this morning. A radio station released an article that there had been screwworm detected in Missouri, citing the USDA and a financial package to the state to fight the spread. That article was quickly removed but the futures damage had already been done. The USDA confirmed after 2pm today that the reports of screwworm in the U.S. were indeed false. The Live Cattle complex traded as much as $4 lower at one point this morning before finishing $1 lower on the day. This is a reminder of how susceptible the cattle complex is to news at these all-time high levels and the volatility that can come with it. Cash trade last week was higher across all regions, mainly 230 in the North which traded a fair amount of cattle, and 221 in the South but on very limited numbers. Tight supplies of ready fat cattle remain as packers are beginning to have more inventory around them. Boxed beef started the week mixed as choice was down $1.36 and select was up $0.15 in this morning’s report.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures were hit the hardest surrounding the screwworm rumors. Futures traded nearly $7.500 lower at one time this morning and looked to be going down to the $8.250 limit lower before validity of the news faded. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to fade lower, quoted at $296.09 after Friday’s sales. This is $6.32 off its highs of $302.41 on May 14. All future months finished below the 300.000 level again today and right at, or just below the 20-day moving average. Technically not a great look for the Feeder Cattle complex and definitely does not give traders a lot of optimism that the Feeder Cattle can survive above the 300.000 level. After all, the cash fundamentals were what led Feeder Cattle to this level, and a stagnant to lower cash market has removed that optimism and buying within the complex.
Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex started the day lower before trading and finishing higher. The pork cutout moved higher again on Friday and is now at new highs after falling stagnant for the prior five days. The Cold Storage Report on Friday showed pork stocks down 9% compared to a year ago, but the monthly build in stocks was much larger than normal. There may be less in storage than a year ago, but the replenishment of those supplies is climbing quicker than normal. Carcass weights last week saw a steep decline, bringing the industry back to the same as a year ago. Carcass weights had been running larger than a year ago due to better economics at the producer level.
Corn: Corn futures fought head winds all day as the wheat complex was sharply lower and crude oil traded slightly lower. No startling news or changes in weather models during the long weekend led to the managed money adding to their short position. President Trump agreed to leave tariffs on the EU the same through the beginning of July. At the end of the day, the EU is not a huge purchaser of U.S. commodities, but a customer nonetheless. Overall within the grain complex, there is good weather for most of the corn belt that has given the crop a good start, there are no current weather threats that will hamper production and there is steady demand that is keeping our carryout in check. A hiccup or change to any of these would give the market some news to trade outside of the current ranges and force the funds to make a move one way or the other.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
459.50
0.00
CHI Wheat
July
528.50
14.00
KC Wheat
July
524.50
14.25
MN Wheat
July
596.25
10.25
Soybeans
July
1062.50
2.25
Soy Oil
July
49.57
0.22
Soy Meal
July
296.30
0.10
Live Cattle
June
215.125
0.675
Feeder Cattle
August
298.150
2.225
Lean Hogs
June
99.100
0.800
Crude Oil
July
60.94
0.59
Ch Cutout
360.19
1.36
Sel Cutout
351.47
0.15
Feeder Index
296.09
0.63
Pork Cutout
101.46
1.19
Dollar Index
99.541
0.6110
DOW
42,290
686
National Corn Basis
-25.03
0.17
National Bean Basis
-49.90
0.42
Dates to Remember
June 6- June Live Cattle Option Expiration
June 12- WASDE Report
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
99.100
100.025
0.925
93.800
5.300
National Cash
94.86
92.51
2.35
87.83
7.03
Index
92.94
91.46
1.48
90.79
2.15
Cutout
101.46
101.09
0.37
103.40
1.94
IA/SMN Cash
96.45
95.04
1.41
88.45
8.00
IA/SMN Weights
287.90
290.50
1.70
287.90
0.00
Slaughter
2,362,000
2,400,000
38,000
2,371,081
9,081
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
230
190.52
South Cash
221
185.95
North Steer Basis
16.00
8.28
Choice Boxes
360.19
360.44
0.25
312.12
48.07
Select Boxes
351.47
345.12
6.35
303.43
48.04
Spread
8.72
15.32
6.60
8.69
0.03
Carcass Weights
873
871
2
854
19
Slaughter
570,000
566,000
4,000
602,136
32,136
FC Index
296.09
297.33
1.24
248.84
47.25
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$221.00
$185.86
KS
$221.00
$185.95
NE
$230.00
$190.52
IA/MN
$230.00
$189.94
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 5/20/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
132,564
3,030
-166,673
7,577
398,324
1,484
Feeder Cattle
33,972
1,757
-14,835
711
77,551
778
Lean Hogs
91,744
10,658
-140,179
8,990
313,306
332
Corn
-103,210
18,234
-172,292
7,882
1,651,763
8,064
Soybeans
12,654
25,753
-154,236
15,696
852,242
287
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle posted a good recovery today. Resistance is at 211.175 and 212.200. Support is at the 20-day MA of 208.375 and then 205.325.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle took out Friday’s highs before trading sharply lower. The 20-day MA of 298.950 will be a pivot point for the next few days with support at 295.100 and then 293.050. Resistance is at 301.325 and 301.975.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs traded below the 20-day MA today before finishing above it. Support is at the 20-day MA of 101.475 and then 100.750 which has been the low both of the last two trading sessions. Resistance is at 103.975 and then 105.175.
Corn Markets
July Corn continues to hold a decent technical picture. Support is at the 20-day MA of 456, which was also today’s low. Resistance will be at 464 3/4 and then the 470 area.
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5/27/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Rumors of screwworm entering into the state of Missouri led to a free fall within the cattle complex this morning. A radio station released an article that there had been screwworm detected in Missouri, citing the USDA and a financial package to the state to fight the spread. That article was quickly removed but the futures damage had already been done. The USDA confirmed after 2pm today that the reports of screwworm in the U.S. were indeed false. The Live Cattle complex traded as much as $4 lower at one point this morning before finishing $1 lower on the day. This is a reminder of how susceptible the cattle complex is to news at these all-time high levels and the volatility that can come with it. Cash trade last week was higher across all regions, mainly 230 in the North which traded a fair amount of cattle, and 221 in the South but on very limited numbers. Tight supplies of ready fat cattle remain as packers are beginning to have more inventory around them. Boxed beef started the week mixed as choice was down $1.36 and select was up $0.15 in this morning’s report.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures were hit the hardest surrounding the screwworm rumors. Futures traded nearly $7.500 lower at one time this morning and looked to be going down to the $8.250 limit lower before validity of the news faded. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to fade lower, quoted at $296.09 after Friday’s sales. This is $6.32 off its highs of $302.41 on May 14. All future months finished below the 300.000 level again today and right at, or just below the 20-day moving average. Technically not a great look for the Feeder Cattle complex and definitely does not give traders a lot of optimism that the Feeder Cattle can survive above the 300.000 level. After all, the cash fundamentals were what led Feeder Cattle to this level, and a stagnant to lower cash market has removed that optimism and buying within the complex.
Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex started the day lower before trading and finishing higher. The pork cutout moved higher again on Friday and is now at new highs after falling stagnant for the prior five days. The Cold Storage Report on Friday showed pork stocks down 9% compared to a year ago, but the monthly build in stocks was much larger than normal. There may be less in storage than a year ago, but the replenishment of those supplies is climbing quicker than normal. Carcass weights last week saw a steep decline, bringing the industry back to the same as a year ago. Carcass weights had been running larger than a year ago due to better economics at the producer level.
Corn: Corn futures fought head winds all day as the wheat complex was sharply lower and crude oil traded slightly lower. No startling news or changes in weather models during the long weekend led to the managed money adding to their short position. President Trump agreed to leave tariffs on the EU the same through the beginning of July. At the end of the day, the EU is not a huge purchaser of U.S. commodities, but a customer nonetheless. Overall within the grain complex, there is good weather for most of the corn belt that has given the crop a good start, there are no current weather threats that will hamper production and there is steady demand that is keeping our carryout in check. A hiccup or change to any of these would give the market some news to trade outside of the current ranges and force the funds to make a move one way or the other.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
June 6- June Live Cattle Option Expiration
June 12- WASDE Report
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 5/20/2025
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle posted a good recovery today. Resistance is at 211.175 and 212.200. Support is at the 20-day MA of 208.375 and then 205.325.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle took out Friday’s highs before trading sharply lower. The 20-day MA of 298.950 will be a pivot point for the next few days with support at 295.100 and then 293.050. Resistance is at 301.325 and 301.975.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs traded below the 20-day MA today before finishing above it. Support is at the 20-day MA of 101.475 and then 100.750 which has been the low both of the last two trading sessions. Resistance is at 103.975 and then 105.175.
Corn Markets
July Corn continues to hold a decent technical picture. Support is at the 20-day MA of 456, which was also today’s low. Resistance will be at 464 3/4 and then the 470 area.