Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures posted new contract highs in the deferred contracts today, before reversing direction and finishing $3.00/cwt off of their highs. There was no glaring news that led to today’s reversal lower but it definitely felt like fund long liquidation. Boxed beef has been pretty quiet to start this week, as both choice and select have been mildly mixed both days. With the lighter slaughter totals that we continue to see, and the abnormally small slaughter last week, boxed beef should be more supported than the mixed-to-unchanged start it has seen this week. The feedlots will most certainly be asking higher money this week after last week’s record setting sales. Fat cattle in sale barns the beginning of this week are being called $10/cwt higher than a week ago in some instances, and are definitely posting new records for sales. Sometimes the sale barn markets are a reflection of the trade in the country from a week ago, but they are trading higher nonetheless. June Live Cattle options will expire on Friday and the delivery period for June futures will begin on Monday. With the current market and the cash well above the futures, there should be no deliveries against the June contract.
Feeder Cattle: The cash Feeder Cattle market that had become stagnant the past few weeks resumed its higher tone and pushed the futures market to near contract highs this morning. The CME Feeder Cattle index had shed nearly $7.00/cwt over the course of seven days but is now back within a dollar of all-time highs. It is no secret that the number of available feeder cattle is at an all-time low, combine that with the corn market that cannot push higher, and the result is that feedlots are paying record prices for all classes of feeder cattle. As of last Tuesday, the funds were long 33,258 contracts, which is less that 1,000 contracts from their all-time record position. The record cash market is keeping the managed money interested in the Feeder Cattle complex and they are pushing the futures higher.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues to work higher and is pushing the futures higher as well. New contract highs were posted in the August, and further deferred contracts yesterday and again today, and many months finished near those highs today. Open interest continues to flood into the Lean Hog complex on huge daily volumes. The managed money were net buyers of nearly 3,000 contracts for the week ending May 27 and are now long over 95,000 contracts. They are now approaching the upper 25% of their historical levels. The main theme amongst the Lean Hog complex is tighter supplies of hogs going forward, especially later in 2025 and the beginning of 2026, and lighter than expected production currently. Production for the second quarter of 2025 was roughly 4% lower than a year ago and does not look to improve going forward. Friday, we mentioned the gap between the June futures and the current Lean Hog index being $7.20/cwt. That spread has narrowed to $4.32/ cwt at the close of trade today, and will need to be relatively even by the close of trade on next Friday.
Corn: Corn futures started the week with higher trade but ended the day lower on Monday and saw slight gains on Tuesday. The main theme with all the grain complexes, not just the corn, is that there is no threat to U.S. production at the current time. The managed money is currently short just over 100,000 corn contracts and has no reason to exit those positions or even build a long position. Weekly export inspections were great again this week, well above the estimated range and keeps the U.S. well above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s export goal. All eyes will be on the WASDE report on June 12 and if there are any revisions higher to the current export number and in turn, lowering the current carryout. The crop progress report that was released yesterday afternoon showed the U.S. corn crop at 93% planted which is right on the 5-year average. Condition of the U.S. corn crop was also improved 1% from the prior week. Bottom line is the weather looks favorable for the U.S. growing season and the 95.300 million expected corn acres.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
438.50
0.25
CHI Wheat
July
536.00
3.00
KC Wheat
July
536.75
3.00
MN Wheat
July
618.00
9.25
Soybeans
July
1040.75
7.25
Soy Oil
July
46.81
0.53
Soy Meal
July
294.50
0.60
Live Cattle
June
215.975
0.575
Feeder Cattle
August
301.225
0.525
Lean Hogs
June
100.225
0.625
Crude Oil
July
63.54
1.02
Ch Cutout
366.23
0.23
Sel Cutout
357.54
0.57
Feeder Index
301.48
0.35
Pork Cutout
106.75
0.47
Dollar Index
99.229
0.5230
DOW
42,531
226
National Corn Basis
-24.07
0.04
National Bean Basis
-48.79
0.78
Dates to Remember
June 6- June Live Cattle Option Expiration
June 12- WASDE Report
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
100.225
99.100
1.125
93.650
6.575
National Cash
95.40
94.86
0.54
89.35
6.05
Index
95.90
92.94
2.96
91.93
3.97
Cutout
106.75
101.46
5.29
101.43
5.32
IA/SMN Cash
96.45
96.45
0.00
90.28
6.17
IA/SMN Weights
288.00
287.90
0.10
288.00
0.00
Slaughter
2,163,000
2,362,000
199,900
2,162,210
790
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
235.31
190.55
South Cash
222.32
185.05
North Steer Basis
20.00
7.51
Choice Boxes
366.23
360.19
6.04
315.60
50.63
Select Boxes
357.54
351.47
6.07
303.70
53.84
Spread
8.69
8.72
0.03
11.90
3.21
Carcass Weights
871
873
2
851
20
Slaughter
477,000
570,000
93,000
538,910
61,910
FC Index
301.48
296.09
5.39
250.77
50.71
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$222.00
$184.71
KS
$222.32
$185.05
NE
$235.31
$190.55
IA/MN
$233.56
$190.17
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 5/27/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
131,293
1,271
-165,025
1,648
408,622
2,007
Feeder Cattle
33,258
714
-12,406
993
77,825
866
Lean Hogs
94,540
2,796
-142,067
1,888
343,292
9,377
Corn
-100,760
2,450
-150,061
22,231
1,652,554
8,414
Soybeans
36,697
24,043
-175,974
21,738
875,482
4,106
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle gave up all of its early gains today and finished toward the lower end of today’s range. Resistance above the market will be at 212.850 and then the contract high of 214.500. Support is at the 20-day MA of 209.275 and then 206.375.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle broke out to the top-side of their sideways range this morning. Today’s high of 304.550 will serve as the first line of resistance before the contract high of 307.625. Support under the market is at the 20-day MA of 299.700 and then 293.050.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs filled a gap left on February 19 at 105.650 and posted a new high for the move today. Resistance will be at today’s high of 106.050 and then the contract high of 106.700. Support will be at the 20-day MA of 102.600 and then 100.750.
Corn Markets
July Corn traded just below support levels this morning before finishing fractionally higher. Support will be at today’s low of 434 1/4 and then 427 1/2. Resistance will be at the 450 area along with the 20-day MA of 449 3/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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6/3/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures posted new contract highs in the deferred contracts today, before reversing direction and finishing $3.00/cwt off of their highs. There was no glaring news that led to today’s reversal lower but it definitely felt like fund long liquidation. Boxed beef has been pretty quiet to start this week, as both choice and select have been mildly mixed both days. With the lighter slaughter totals that we continue to see, and the abnormally small slaughter last week, boxed beef should be more supported than the mixed-to-unchanged start it has seen this week. The feedlots will most certainly be asking higher money this week after last week’s record setting sales. Fat cattle in sale barns the beginning of this week are being called $10/cwt higher than a week ago in some instances, and are definitely posting new records for sales. Sometimes the sale barn markets are a reflection of the trade in the country from a week ago, but they are trading higher nonetheless. June Live Cattle options will expire on Friday and the delivery period for June futures will begin on Monday. With the current market and the cash well above the futures, there should be no deliveries against the June contract.
Feeder Cattle: The cash Feeder Cattle market that had become stagnant the past few weeks resumed its higher tone and pushed the futures market to near contract highs this morning. The CME Feeder Cattle index had shed nearly $7.00/cwt over the course of seven days but is now back within a dollar of all-time highs. It is no secret that the number of available feeder cattle is at an all-time low, combine that with the corn market that cannot push higher, and the result is that feedlots are paying record prices for all classes of feeder cattle. As of last Tuesday, the funds were long 33,258 contracts, which is less that 1,000 contracts from their all-time record position. The record cash market is keeping the managed money interested in the Feeder Cattle complex and they are pushing the futures higher.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues to work higher and is pushing the futures higher as well. New contract highs were posted in the August, and further deferred contracts yesterday and again today, and many months finished near those highs today. Open interest continues to flood into the Lean Hog complex on huge daily volumes. The managed money were net buyers of nearly 3,000 contracts for the week ending May 27 and are now long over 95,000 contracts. They are now approaching the upper 25% of their historical levels. The main theme amongst the Lean Hog complex is tighter supplies of hogs going forward, especially later in 2025 and the beginning of 2026, and lighter than expected production currently. Production for the second quarter of 2025 was roughly 4% lower than a year ago and does not look to improve going forward. Friday, we mentioned the gap between the June futures and the current Lean Hog index being $7.20/cwt. That spread has narrowed to $4.32/ cwt at the close of trade today, and will need to be relatively even by the close of trade on next Friday.
Corn: Corn futures started the week with higher trade but ended the day lower on Monday and saw slight gains on Tuesday. The main theme with all the grain complexes, not just the corn, is that there is no threat to U.S. production at the current time. The managed money is currently short just over 100,000 corn contracts and has no reason to exit those positions or even build a long position. Weekly export inspections were great again this week, well above the estimated range and keeps the U.S. well above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s export goal. All eyes will be on the WASDE report on June 12 and if there are any revisions higher to the current export number and in turn, lowering the current carryout. The crop progress report that was released yesterday afternoon showed the U.S. corn crop at 93% planted which is right on the 5-year average. Condition of the U.S. corn crop was also improved 1% from the prior week. Bottom line is the weather looks favorable for the U.S. growing season and the 95.300 million expected corn acres.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
June 6- June Live Cattle Option Expiration
June 12- WASDE Report
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 5/27/2025
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle gave up all of its early gains today and finished toward the lower end of today’s range. Resistance above the market will be at 212.850 and then the contract high of 214.500. Support is at the 20-day MA of 209.275 and then 206.375.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle broke out to the top-side of their sideways range this morning. Today’s high of 304.550 will serve as the first line of resistance before the contract high of 307.625. Support under the market is at the 20-day MA of 299.700 and then 293.050.
Lean Hogs Markets
July Lean Hogs filled a gap left on February 19 at 105.650 and posted a new high for the move today. Resistance will be at today’s high of 106.050 and then the contract high of 106.700. Support will be at the 20-day MA of 102.600 and then 100.750.
Corn Markets
July Corn traded just below support levels this morning before finishing fractionally higher. Support will be at today’s low of 434 1/4 and then 427 1/2. Resistance will be at the 450 area along with the 20-day MA of 449 3/4.