Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures set new contract and all-time highs again this week, breaking through the 220 level for the first time ever and accelerating past it as the June contract posted a high of 226.750 today. This week marks the 8th week in a row of a higher cash market, and sharply higher every week at that. Since the beginning of April the cash market in the North has gained $30/cwt on a live basis, and the futures have been playing catch up the entire time. Cash trade in the North was 240-244 live and 380 dressed. The South saw a wide spread of cash prices, anywhere from 225 to 235. Boxed beef was steady at best this week and failed to find much upside support the entire week. A steady product market and a higher cash market is adding extra pressure to packer margins. Open interest in the Live Cattle complex climbed to 417,000 after yesterday’s trade, which is the highest for 2025. The all-time record was set in March of 2019 at 455,000 contracts. Interesting to note, the CME is saying that option open interest within the cattle complex is currently record large. The headline in the cattle market continues to be the lack of market-ready fat cattle and all of the leverage is in the feedlot’s hands. While front month futures are forced to converge with the current cash market, the deferred contracts are hesitant to rise as quickly.
Feeder Cattle: The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new record this week as cash feeders continue to move higher. The current index is at $306.16 which is up $1.30 after Thursday’s sales. This is a $6.86 gain compared to a week ago. As of the close of trade on Tuesday June 3, the managed money was long 34,827 contracts, up 1,569 contracts on the week and is also a new record long position. Talks of the current situation surrounding the Mexican border have quieted down but the closure due to screwworm is still a main topic within the feeder cattle complex. With no current end date available, the question remains how long will the closure last. The USDA said they would review the situation on a monthly basis, but many are beginning to speculate that imports will be shut off until at least December 2025. This would continue to keep the number of available feeder cattle at very tight supplies to U.S. feedlots.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues to gain strength as the morning cutout was up $4.74 at $112.86. All primal cuts showed positive numbers with the bellies leading the charge with a $10.58 increase. With the exception of the nearby June contract, every contract month for Lean Hogs posted new contract highs today. With the continued rally in the pork cutout and talks of disease pressure creating short hog numbers, the futures market has been well supported and the rally continues to be sustained. The June contract will expire next week on Friday and the Lean Hog index is currently $4.25/cwt behind at $98.37. Weekly export data out yesterday showed a total of 36K tonnes for the week, 13K tonnes to China and 12K tonnes to Mexico. This is a 19% increase from the previous week and 25% increase from the prior 4-week average.
Corn: Corn futures finished the week higher after a very quiet week of trade. The U.S. weather outlook continues to look favorable for corn production and has yet to give the managed money a reason to liquidate their short position. For the week ending June 3, the managed money was sellers of 53,283 contracts bringing their net short position to 154,043 contracts. Exports this week were at the lower end of expectations but the U.S. remains nearly 6% ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA goal. Prevent Plant acres have been the main topic of debate over the course of the last week with portions of the eastern corn belt, namely Ohio, finding limited windows to get the corn acres planted. The question is how many acres that were intended for corn did not get planted. The market will not get a hard answer from the USDA for many months, but at the current time the market does not feel threatened by the loss of a million or more corn acres.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
July
442.50
3.00
CHI Wheat
July
554.75
9.25
KC Wheat
July
549.25
6.75
MN Wheat
July
635.25
10.00
Soybeans
July
1057.25
5.50
Soy Oil
July
47.50
0.85
Soy Meal
July
295.70
1.40
Live Cattle
June
226.300
3.400
Feeder Cattle
August
310.150
1.000
Lean Hogs
June
102.625
1.775
Crude Oil
July
64.76
1.39
Ch Cutout
365.49
1.36
Sel Cutout
356.71
0.10
Feeder Index
306.16
1.30
Pork Cutout
108.12
1.50
Dollar Index
99.197
0.4560
DOW
42,761
442
National Corn Basis
-23.24
0.51
National Bean Basis
-47.94
0.27
Dates to Remember
June 6- June Live Cattle Option Expiration
June 12- WASDE Report
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
102.625
101.325
1.300
92.150
10.475
National Cash
101.85
98.95
2.90
86.23
15.62
Index
97.57
94.13
3.44
91.75
5.82
Cutout
108.12
104.62
3.50
100.69
7.43
IA/SMN Cash
102.55
100.28
2.27
89.13
13.42
IA/SMN Weights
288.30
288.00
0.30
290.40
2.10
Slaughter
2,363,000
2,143,000
220,000
2,415,772
52,772
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
240-244
235.31
4-10 Higher
190.55
49.45
South Cash
225-235
222.32
3-12 Higher
185.05
43.45
North Steer Basis
16.50
20.00
3.50
7.51
8.99
Choice Boxes
365.49
365.99
0.50
316.21
49.28
Select Boxes
356.71
356.88
0.17
300.83
55.88
Spread
8.78
9.11
0.33
15.38
6.60
Carcass Weights
872
871
1
851
21
Slaughter
582,000
477,000
105,000
609,797
27,797
FC Index
306.16
299.30
6.86
250.54
55.62
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
225-232
$222.00
$184.71
KS
225-235
$222.32
$185.05
NE
240-244
$235.31
$190.55
IA/MN
240-242
$233.56
$190.17
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/3/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
131,805
512
-168,450
3,425
416,999
3,764
Feeder Cattle
34,827
1,569
-14,407
2,001
81,226
1,311
Lean Hogs
101,626
7,086
-156,906
14,839
355,432
1,606
Corn
-154,043
53,283
-102,452
47,609
1,653,231
14,425
Soybeans
8,601
28,096
-143,487
32,487
879,370
497
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle posted new contract highs on Friday. Slight resistance will be at 220.000 and then 223.000. Support under the market is at 212.475 and the 20-day MA of 210.300.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle set new contract highs and all-time highs on Friday. Resistance will be at 315.000. Support is at 304.375 and the 20-day MA of 300.900.
Lean Hogs Markets
New contract highs were posted in the August Lean Hogs on Friday. Resistance will be at 110.000. Support is at 103.975 and then the 20-day MA of 103.500.
Corn Markets
July Corn finished the week higher, but well off its daily high. Resistance is at 446 and then the 20-day MA of 448. Support is at 433 1/4 and then 427 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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6/6/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures set new contract and all-time highs again this week, breaking through the 220 level for the first time ever and accelerating past it as the June contract posted a high of 226.750 today. This week marks the 8th week in a row of a higher cash market, and sharply higher every week at that. Since the beginning of April the cash market in the North has gained $30/cwt on a live basis, and the futures have been playing catch up the entire time. Cash trade in the North was 240-244 live and 380 dressed. The South saw a wide spread of cash prices, anywhere from 225 to 235. Boxed beef was steady at best this week and failed to find much upside support the entire week. A steady product market and a higher cash market is adding extra pressure to packer margins. Open interest in the Live Cattle complex climbed to 417,000 after yesterday’s trade, which is the highest for 2025. The all-time record was set in March of 2019 at 455,000 contracts. Interesting to note, the CME is saying that option open interest within the cattle complex is currently record large. The headline in the cattle market continues to be the lack of market-ready fat cattle and all of the leverage is in the feedlot’s hands. While front month futures are forced to converge with the current cash market, the deferred contracts are hesitant to rise as quickly.
Feeder Cattle: The CME Feeder Cattle index posted a new record this week as cash feeders continue to move higher. The current index is at $306.16 which is up $1.30 after Thursday’s sales. This is a $6.86 gain compared to a week ago. As of the close of trade on Tuesday June 3, the managed money was long 34,827 contracts, up 1,569 contracts on the week and is also a new record long position. Talks of the current situation surrounding the Mexican border have quieted down but the closure due to screwworm is still a main topic within the feeder cattle complex. With no current end date available, the question remains how long will the closure last. The USDA said they would review the situation on a monthly basis, but many are beginning to speculate that imports will be shut off until at least December 2025. This would continue to keep the number of available feeder cattle at very tight supplies to U.S. feedlots.
Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues to gain strength as the morning cutout was up $4.74 at $112.86. All primal cuts showed positive numbers with the bellies leading the charge with a $10.58 increase. With the exception of the nearby June contract, every contract month for Lean Hogs posted new contract highs today. With the continued rally in the pork cutout and talks of disease pressure creating short hog numbers, the futures market has been well supported and the rally continues to be sustained. The June contract will expire next week on Friday and the Lean Hog index is currently $4.25/cwt behind at $98.37. Weekly export data out yesterday showed a total of 36K tonnes for the week, 13K tonnes to China and 12K tonnes to Mexico. This is a 19% increase from the previous week and 25% increase from the prior 4-week average.
Corn: Corn futures finished the week higher after a very quiet week of trade. The U.S. weather outlook continues to look favorable for corn production and has yet to give the managed money a reason to liquidate their short position. For the week ending June 3, the managed money was sellers of 53,283 contracts bringing their net short position to 154,043 contracts. Exports this week were at the lower end of expectations but the U.S. remains nearly 6% ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA goal. Prevent Plant acres have been the main topic of debate over the course of the last week with portions of the eastern corn belt, namely Ohio, finding limited windows to get the corn acres planted. The question is how many acres that were intended for corn did not get planted. The market will not get a hard answer from the USDA for many months, but at the current time the market does not feel threatened by the loss of a million or more corn acres.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
June 6- June Live Cattle Option Expiration
June 12- WASDE Report
June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 6/3/2025
Live Cattle Markets
August Live Cattle posted new contract highs on Friday. Slight resistance will be at 220.000 and then 223.000. Support under the market is at 212.475 and the 20-day MA of 210.300.
Feeder Cattle Markets
August Feeder Cattle set new contract highs and all-time highs on Friday. Resistance will be at 315.000. Support is at 304.375 and the 20-day MA of 300.900.
Lean Hogs Markets
New contract highs were posted in the August Lean Hogs on Friday. Resistance will be at 110.000. Support is at 103.975 and then the 20-day MA of 103.500.
Corn Markets
July Corn finished the week higher, but well off its daily high. Resistance is at 446 and then the 20-day MA of 448. Support is at 433 1/4 and then 427 1/2.