6/13/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: For the first time in nine weeks cash cattle did not trade higher. Cash trade this week will be called steady. 235 in the South was fully steady with the high end of their trade last week and $5 higher than the averages. The North traded mostly at 240 this week which is the same as the bulk of the trade a week ago but we did not see the outside bids of 242-243 this week. Uncertainty within the equity markets weighed on the futures this morning as Israel attacking Iran overnight caused global unrest and uncertainty. A steady cash market for the first time in over two months has also cooled off the futures market that had been posting new contract highs every week. Open interest continued to decline throughout the complex over the course of the week on what appears to be fund long liquidation.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures quickly erased $8/cwt over the course of three days as uncertainty has entered the market. The CME Feeder Cattle index has yet to back off as cash feeders remain high. The index typically lags the futures action by a few days as it takes some time for lower futures prices to create lower the bids in sale barns and then get factored into the index. The funds continue to hold a record long feeder position and this adds to the volatility as outside factors weigh on the market. There has not been much technical damage done to the Feeder Cattle charts to this point. The fast run up left little for support areas on the way down, and we have not reached those levels yet.

Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues with its positive momentum with the morning cutout being up $2.93 at $117.43 a large climb from $97 only a month ago. With June expiring today and July now becoming the lead month, it had the largest gain today closing up $0.57 at $109.47, the rest of the deferred months held steady. The weekly export sales came in at only 10K tonnes sold, where Mexico was showing a net cancelation of 1K tonne. Thursday’s WASDE report revised exports downward by 110 million pounds, which now forecasts exports for 2025 to be -2.3% compared to last year.

Corn: With the news of overnight unrest in the Middle East, oil futures reacted positively to the news. However, corn did not see the positive bump to this news as July finished only up $0.06, unlike the bean nearby contract closing up $0.26. Yesterday’s WASDE report was as expected with no real surprises. They increased corn exports by 50 mbu and carried that over to a smaller new crop carryout of 1.75 bbu. This news wasn’t enough to cause any real market reaction.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn July 444.50 6.00
CHI Wheat July 543.75 17.25
KC Wheat July 540.75 18.00
MN Wheat July 634.25 13.50
Soybeans July 1069.75 27.50
Soy Oil July 50.61 3.00
Soy Meal July 291.90 -2.60
Live Cattle June 225.100 -3.100
Feeder Cattle August 306.425 -4.825
Lean Hogs July 109.475 0.575
Crude Oil July 73.12 5.06
Ch Cutout 377.88 1.16
Sel Cutout 363.5 0.43
Feeder Index 317.10 1.25
Pork Cutout 110.29 1.22
Dollar Index 98.205 0.2850
DOW 42,198 -769.83
National Corn Basis -22.11 -0.52
National Bean Basis -54.00 -3.04

Dates to Remember

June 13- June Lean Hog Expiration

June 20- Cattle on Feed Report

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 109.475 107.100 2.375 88.250 21.225
National Cash 104.95 101.85 3.10 86.87 18.08
Index 101.75 97.57 4.18 91.44 10.31
Cutout 114.50 108.12 6.38 97.02 17.48
IA/SMN Cash 105.81 102.55 3.45 87.71 18.29
IA/SMN Weights 287.20 288.30 1.10 289.00 1.80
Slaughter 2,367,000 2,339,000 28,000 2,333,209 33,791

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 240 241.82 Steady 195.90 44.10
South Cash 235 231.12 Steady 186.26 48.74
North Steer Basis 12.5 16.50 7.51
Choice Boxes 377.88 365.49 12.39 318.31 59.57
Select Boxes 365.50 356.71 8.79 299.25 66.25
Spread 14.38 8.78 19.06
Carcass Weights 870 872 2 851 19
Slaughter 556,000 580,000 -24,000 608,178 -52,178
FC Index 317.10 306.16 10.94 255.86 61.24

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 235 $229.54 $185.79
KS 235 $231.12 $186.26
NE 240 $241.82 $195.90
IA/MN 240 $240.22 $194.03

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 6/3/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 131,805 512 -168,450 3,425 383,761 3,218
Feeder Cattle 34,827 1,569 -14,407 2,001 86,112 478
Lean Hogs 101,626 7,086 -156,906 14,839 371,622 2,163
Corn -154,043 53,283 -102,452 47,609 1,613,314 1,061
Soybeans 8,601 28,096 -143,487 32,487 841,937 7,987

Live Cattle Markets

August Live Cattle finished the week lower and right on support lines. Support is at the 20-day MA of 212.125. Resistance is at the contract high of 220.050.

Feeder Cattle Markets

August Feeder Cattle finished the week sharply lower but held most technical levels. Support is at 304.375 and then the 20-day MA of 303.050. Resistance is at the contract high of 314.200.

Lean Hogs Markets

July Lean Hogs posted another contract high and that is resistance at 109.625. Support is at the 20-day MA of 105.000.

Corn Markets

July Corn tested the 20-day MA this morning but could not trade through that level. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 446. Support is at this week’s low of 429 1/4.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

Let's Talk

Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.

Nebraska Location

4809 S 114th St
Omaha, NE 68137

Iowa Location

4280 Sergeant Rd, Ste 240
Sioux City, IA 51106

General Contact

PO Box 45978
Omaha, NE 68145

Business Hours

Monday – Friday

8:00 A.M. – 4:00 P.M.