6/17/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded sharply lower today, and pushed to new daily lows at the close, as traders are worried about negative outside factors and the possibility of lower cash trade this week. Last week ended with big losses as tensions in the Middle East were front and center in the news, as well as ICE raids in packing plants causing a poor weekly slaughter number. Over the weekend President Trump said that he would exclude most agriculture related workers from those raids in an attempt to stabilize labor issues within the agriculture sector. It sounds like Trump is going back on some of that this morning. Boxed Beef continues its move higher and is setting new records with the exception of the Covid era. Compared to last Tuesday, Choice is up $14.02 and Select is up $10.44. The lighter slaughter numbers definitely have a large part in the cutout being supported, but demand has remained strong and exports are outperforming expectations. Overall, the futures have become cautious of whether the market can work much higher than this level. The seasonality of cattle futures are also working against higher price movement as we enter into the timeframe of more market-ready cattle. The cash market feels somewhat weak this week and with the funds not too far from a record long position as they are exiting those positions.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures were also under heavy pressure today as outside factors continue to drive the market lower. The CME feeder cattle index has turned lower after setting a new record-high on Friday at $317.10. The CFTC report that was released on Friday showed the managed money long 35,962 contracts, which is a new all-time record position. Cash feeders remain high and are now at a large premium to the current futures market. Wednesday will be an important day from a technical standpoint as feeder futures are testing downside support areas. This week will be the first true test of the calf market for fall delivery as The Corn Belt Classic cattle sale is taking place today and tomorrow. Record prices will be seen across all classes of cattle but everyone is interested as to just how high they will be.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the day lower today after posting new contract highs all the way through the complex. The pork cutout continues to work higher and is now at 119.48. Smaller slaughter, lighter weights, and high priced beef are all helping to push the pork cutout to these levels. This is the highest the pork cutout has been since the summer of 2022. Interesting to note that today was the first time that the February contract has closed lower since May 23. The deferred contracts have been on an incredible run, posting new contract highs almost every day. Most of this optimism comes on the thought of even tighter supplies of hogs at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. Cash fundamentals continue to have a positive outlook and today’s future action felt more like a day to reset, not the beginning of a lower move.

Corn: Favorable weather across the majority of the corn belt has made it difficult for the corn complex to work higher. The September contract set a new contract low yesterday while all other contracts came very close to their lows. Currently, the market is trading as production has yet to be threatened, and the current acre and yield figures are true until proven otherwise. The USDA crop progress report that was released yesterday afternoon showed the U.S. corn crop at 72% good to excellent, which is a 1% improvement from a week ago. June 30 will be the next big report within the grain complex, when the USDA will release planted acres and quarterly stocks. Friday’s CFTC report again showed the managed money as sellers of corn. Currently short just over 164,000 contracts there is no reason for the funds to liquidate their short position and spur a rally higher in the corn market.