7/18/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: August Live Cattle made a new contract high of 224.550 today, but closed slightly lower at 223.550. The nearby contracts all finished slightly lower, while larger losses were seen in the deferred contracts. Choice boxes were $0.77 higher at $374.05 this morning, while Select was down $1.00 at $352.84. Cash trade in the North was steady with last week as most trade took place at 240 live and 380 dressed. The steady cash should be considered a win as we continue to see packer margins erode with the boxed beef prices moving lower, as we continue to see boxes seasonally trade lower now through beginning of September. Brazil has indicated they are ready to come to the negotiation table on the 50% tariffs Trump has announced to start on August 1. This would allow beef to continue flowing into the U.S. from Brazil and also keep pressure on boxed beef.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle Futures have become the leader of the entire cattle complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index did not move much this week after the sharply higher prices seen a week ago. The Feeder Cattle charts are beginning to look slightly concerning as they have traded into the same area four times now, and could not take out the contract highs from last Thursday. There have been no updates announced from the USDA surrounding the Mexican border. Today’s CFTC report again showed the funds record long the Feeder Cattle complex.

Lean Hogs: The Lean Hog complex began the week with sharp losses but saw a rebound mid-week leaving most contracts nearly unchanged on the week. The $3 increase in the pork cutout this week helped spark the rebound, and is now $6 off the low of $110.21 seen heading into the July 4th holiday. The bellies once again are leading the cutout higher as this morning’s cutout report shows them $14.50 higher than Monday morning’s report. Exports have been disappointing as the data released Thursday morning showed just 17K tonnes for the week. That is 12K tonnes shy of the 10-week average of 29K tonnes.

Corn: New crop Corn futures finished higher four of the five days this week and gained 15 cents from last Friday’s close. The higher futures market has been driven by technical factors that sparked a short-covering rally. Futures neared the $4 mark at the end of last week and found support at that level. For the first time all summer, the market has began to trade weather and add some premium into the market. The weather outlook has turned to warmer than normal temperatures through October. Pollination issues are also being heard from around the U.S., but the futures will not realize that as threat to production until later in the year when the combines get rolling.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Sept 408.50 6.50
CHI Wheat Sept 546.25 12.75
KC Wheat Sept 529.00 11.50
Soybeans August 1027.75 6.25
Soy Oil August 55.82 0.40
Soy Meal August 274.00 5.30
Live Cattle August 223.550 0.125
Feeder Cattle August 324.000 1.000
Lean Hogs August 106.475 0.650
Crude Oil August 67.46 0.08
Ch Cutout 374.05 0.77
Sel Cutout 352.84 1.00
Feeder Index 322.28 0.11
Pork Cutout 116.32 1.58
Dollar Index 98.503 0.2310
DOW 44,309 175
National Corn Basis -12.36 0.14
National Bean Basis -44.89 1.58

Dates to Remember

July 25- Cattle on Feed

July 25- Cattle Inventory

July 25- Cold Storage

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 106.475 106.725 0.250 91.375 15.350
National Cash 110.70 112.43 1.73 85.39 25.31
Index 107.63 107.14 0.49 89.71 17.92
Cutout 116.32 114.15 2.16 100.25 16.07
IA/SMN Cash 111.09 113.21 2.12 87.09 24.00
IA/SMN Weights 282.70 282.70 0.00 284.70 2.00
Slaughter 2,342,000 2,353,000 11,000 2,373,523 31,523

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 240 240.02 Steady 196.07 43.93
South Cash 230 229.68 Steady to 1 higher 188.04 41.96
North Steer Basis 16.00 19.00 3.00 14.26 1.74
Choice Boxes 374.05 383.55 9.50 316.15 57.90
Select Boxes 352.84 372.39 19.55 299.46 53.38
Spread 21.21 11.17 10.04 16.69 4.52
Carcass Weights 866 865 1 847 19
Slaughter 563,000 568,000 5,000 589,374 26,374
FC Index 322.28 321.84 0.44 259.26 63.02

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 230-231 $229.27 $188.15
KS 230-231 $229.68 $188.04
NE 238-240 $240.02 $196.07
IA/MN 238-240 $238.88 $195.92

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 7/15/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 132,486 4,063 -167,956 4,607 401,036 2,999
Feeder Cattle 37,569 76 -16,331 942 95,828 255
Lean Hogs 114,593 17,186 168,928 9,470 343,250 3,757
Corn -174,755 29,106 -40,294 10,113 1,465,863 4,597
Soybeans 32,278 26,062 -84,104 26,095 888,240 2,023

Live Cattle Markets

October Live Cattle posted a new contract high this week. Resistance will be at the contract high of 221.175. Support is at 216.150 and then 215.125.

Feeder Cattle Markets

September Feeder Cattle could not get through its contract high this week. Resistance is at the contract high of 326.575. Support is at 318.575 and then the 20-day MA of 313.625.

Lean Hogs Markets

August Lean Hogs finished higher the final four days this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 107.625. Support is at 104.225 and then 102.700.

Corn Markets

December Corn futures finally traded through the 20-day MA and finished the week sharply higher. Support is at the 20-day MA of 424. Resistance is at the 50-day MA of 435.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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