7/25/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: The USDA released their monthly Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon along with their bi-annual Cattle Inventory Report. Cattle on feed were 98% of a year ago, which is slightly lower than the average guess. Placements in the month of June were down 8%, 6% lower than the average guess, while marketings were 4% below a year ago and were in line with what the trade was expecting. The Cattle Inventory Report showed all cattle and calves down 1% compared to 2023, which is the latest report we have from the USDA due to budget limitations in 2024. Additionally, cows and heifers were down 1%, 2025 calf crop was down 1% and beef replacement heifers were down 3%. All numbers were as expected and should not affect the market on Monday morning. The Cattle on Feed Report will be viewed as friendly, especially the placement numbers. This week’s cash market was steady with a week ago across all regions. 240 to 242 was paid in the North on Friday and 230 to 231 was paid in the South on Thursday and Friday. Boxed beef was lower again this week with choice down $6.59 compared to last Friday, and select down $7.23.

Feeder Cattle: The CME Feeder Cattle index set a new record high to end the week. Through Thursday’s sales the index was quoted at $328.83 with a daily index number of $339.93 on a weighted average of 826 pounds. Feeder Cattle futures posted new contract and new all-time record highs as a result. Today’s CFTC report showed the managed money long 37,806 contracts  which is also a new all-time record. We have mentioned it before but the story remains the same within the Feeder Cattle complex. Cheap feed, tight supply of feeder cattle, the Mexican import ban, record fat cattle prices and excellent basis have all created the perfect storm for the futures and cash markets to set new record highs every week.

Lean Hogs: The pork cutout continues show strength with this morning’s report moving to $120.51. Domestic demand remains strong for pork products as exports were at a six-week low. We are in the time of year where exports are seasonally low as we are seeing the highest cutout pricing this time of year. August was the only contract month with a strong finish this week, closing 2.225 higher than last Friday. The rest of the contract months traded sideways most of the week and closed steady with last week. Cash hogs had strong gains this week with the national cash average just under $115 on Wednesday.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week lower as weather forecasts continue to show normal to above normal rain fall in the next 10 to 15 days. If these forecasts are correct,  and the rain does develop, it would put the final touches on a very large corn crop and give the soybeans good moisture heading into the month of August. There were flash sales of corn each of the final two days this week. South Korea was a buyer of U.S. corn on both days and Mexico was a buyer on Friday. Ethanol production decreased for the second week in a row, the only two-week period to do so in the current marketing year. Export demand is currently running 100 million bushels ahead of the current USDA goal, with just five weeks remaining in the marketing year.