8/26/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures posted new contract highs all the way through the complex, and the April contract set a new all-time record high for Live Cattle futures. The futures market continues to be supported by the boxed beef market that was sharply higher this morning. Choice was quoted $6.48 higher at $414.97, while select was up $6.84 at $392.22. Both are new highs for the year. Last week’s slaughter total was revised higher by 4,000 head to 551,000. This is an improvement from the prior two weeks when kill totals fell below most holiday weeks. The cash market has been quiet up to this point of the week. The futures market is pricing in higher trade this week after three weeks in a row of stagnant price movement. Last Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money long 124,519 contracts which was down slightly from the previous week. Their record long position is 156,909 contracts from earlier this year.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have traded over an 11.000/cwt range through the first two days of the week. Sunday, there was a news article released that a human in Maryland had Screwworm. This sent the Feeder Cattle futures limit lower shortly after the open on Monday morning before recovering quickly. Within the first few minutes of trade, Feeder Cattle futures had over a 6.000/cwt range and finished the day only slightly lower. The CME Feeder Cattle index was $7.74 higher on Monday and was followed by another $1.25 gain today, moving the index to $359.17 through Monday’s sales. This weekends news of Screwworm in the U.S. will certainty keep the Mexican border closed and make any future plans of its opening more stringent. If the southern border remains closed for the remainder of the year, the U.S. will have a million less Feeder Cattle imported from Mexico during 2025.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures posted strong gains today with the nearby months leading the move higher. Both the October and December contracts finished above the 50-day MA with October now trading at 93.425 and December trading at 85.925. Cold storage data that was released last Friday showed total pork stocks at 405 million pounds, which is down 11% from the same time last year. The pork belly stocks are down 25% from a year ago at just 32 million pounds. Last week’s slaughter data showed year-to-date slaughter at about two million less pigs year-to-date than last year at this time. With the cold storage stock and harvest numbers coming in light, the pork cutout has been supported in the $112 to $115 range.

Corn: Corn futures have not been able to hold the gains that started the week. Sunday night the markets opened higher as ProFarmer had released their yield and production numbers later in the day on Friday. Futures slowly lost those gains through the day on Monday and continued to trade lower on Tuesday. Export inspections were released yesterday and showed another solid week of shipments. Mexico and Japan were the leading destinations. Crop progress that was released yesterday showed corn at 71% good to excellent which was unchanged from the prior week.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Dec 409.50 2.75
CHI Wheat Dec 531.75 2.00
KC Wheat Dec 517.75 3.00
Soybeans Nov 1049.50 1.75
Soy Oil Oct 52.76 1.55
Soy Meal Oct 290.50 1.50
Live Cattle Oct 238.200 1.375
Feeder Cattle Sept 365.050 3.150
Lean Hogs Oct 93.425 2.025
Crude Oil Oct 63.32 1.48
Ch Cutout 414.97 6.48
Sel Cutout 392.22 6.84
Feeder Index 359.17 1.25
Pork Cutout 114.17 1.21
Dollar Index 98.206 0.2240
DOW 45,372 89
National Corn Basis -18.56 0.05
National Bean Basis -46.73 0.01

Dates to Remember

August 28- August Feeder Cattle Expiration

August 30- August Live Cattle Expiration

September 12- WASDE Report

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 93.425 90.150 3.275 80.400 13.025
National Cash 105.67 107.70 2.03 80.17 25.50
Index 107.27 109.53 2.26 87.82 19.45
Cutout 114.17 116.36 2.19 94.98 19.19
IA/SMN Cash 105.26 107.58 2.32 79.93 25.33
IA/SMN Weights 281.10 281.10 0.00 281.10 0.00
Slaughter 2,419,000 2,408,000 11,000 2,507,446 88,446

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 245.13 183.87
South Cash 239.57 182.67
North Steer Basis 7.00 3.71
Choice Boxes 414.97 408.20 6.77 315.90 99.07
Select Boxes 392.22 379.78 12.44 300.19 92.03
Spread 22.75 28.42 5.67 15.71 7.04
Carcass Weights 866 867 1 849 17
Slaughter 551,000 536,000 15,000 608,984 57,984
FC Index 359.17 344.98 14.19 242.83 116.34

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM $235.92 $182.98
KS $239.57 $182.67
NE $245.13 $183.87
IA/MN $245.02 $184.17

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 8/19/2025
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 124,519 294 -165,653 1,277 388,691 420
Feeder Cattle 33,156 381 -17,666 77 91,115 35
Lean Hogs 105,768 4,964 -161,682 4,997 337,479 2,405
Corn -144,650 31,464 -57,745 25,041 1,479,159 29,200
Soybeans 3 35,273 -114,151 28,135 859,565 17,277

Live Cattle Markets

October Live Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at the contract high of 238.525 followed by 240.000. Support is at 233.525 followed by the 20-day MA 230.125.

Feeder Cattle Markets

September Feeder Cattle posted a new all-time high today. Resistance is at that high of 365.675 and then 370.000. Support is at 362.475 and then 354.525.

Lean Hogs Markets

October Lean Hogs broke through topside resistance today. Resistance is at 94.400. Support is at the 50-day MA of 91.750 followed by the 20-day MA of 90.775.

Corn Markets

December Corn failed to continue higher after setting new highs for the month. Resistance is at 416 1/2 and then the 50-day MA of 417. Support is at the 20-day MA of 406.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC as noted in this presentation. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the IB, Producers Commodities LLC. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves risk of loss and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not constitute an individualized recommendation, or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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