9/5/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished lower each day this week as the cash market struggles to move higher. The South saw a steady to a little higher market this week and traded cattle at 242-243. The North cash trade was steady to lower, anywhere from 242-245. The spread between the North and the South has completely narrowed as cattle in the South are less than a year ago, while the North has more cattle on feed than the same time last year. Boxed beef has stalled out and was lower on the week. This morning choice was quoted at $411.05 and select was at $386.98. Seasonally, boxed beef works lower through the month of September before seeing some recovery in the month of October as holiday demand picks back up. The futures market moved down to support areas today before seeing a slight recovery to close the day. With the market’s move higher at a fast rate over the last few months, the moving averages struggle to keep up with the pace, and leave a lot of space below before support is found.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the week lower and are now more than 10.000/cwt off of their highs made the middle of last week. During the four-day trading week, the October contract lost 6.575, and this is the first negative week since the middle of July. Wednesday was also the first time that the October contract finished lower two days in a row since July 18. The CME Feeder Cattle index has also backed off slightly after gaining over $15.00 throughout the course of the six days leading into this week. Today’s index is quoted at $363.96 up $2.61 on the day. The corn market has quietly added 30 cents, increasing cost of gain and cooled off the continued higher bids that had been seen in the sale barns. Today’s CFTC Report showed the funds as sellers of 2,205 contracts, reducing their net long position to 28,375. The managed money has slowly decreased their position from their record set a month ago, while the market continued to move higher.

Lean Hogs: After a lower day on Wednesday the Lean Hog complex finished the week higher on Thursday and Friday, and posted new contract highs in all months but the October. The Lean Hog index also showed a minimal gain of $0.05 today, which has been the first positive day since August 15. China announced they will be putting duties on European Union pork imports in retaliation to the tariffs they have put on China-made electric vehicles. The initial report states that these duties are up to 62.4% on pork imports that are worth over $2 billion from the EU. The pork cutout market has remained strong after the Labor Day weekend, trading in the $113 to $114 range. The China and EU news should benefit US pork, but China and the US have their own tariff battle going on and the exemptions put in place will expire this month.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week slightly lower and right in the middle of the weekly range. The December contract found support at the 50-day MA twice this week but could not take out the 425 level on the topside. The futures market continues to be stabilized on the thought that the USDA average yield will only go down from here. There may not be a big revision lower but the chances of this year’s yield being increased are very slim. StoneX released their September survey results yesterday and they showed an average corn yield of 186.90 bushels per acre. This is down 1.2 bushels per acre from their August survey. This afternoon’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of 19,199 contracts on the week, reducing their short position to 91,487 contracts.