Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded lower today, led by the nearby months as the cash market and boxed beef markets remain weak. There has been no cash trade to this point of the week. Bids and offers have also been quiet. The feedlots will most likely price cattle at 240 to start the week while the packers will be looking to buy cattle around the 235 level. Boxed beef continues to work lower as it seasonally does throughout the month of September. This morning choice was $2.70 lower to $395.83 and is now $13.76 lower than the same time a week ago. Select was down $2.86 at $375.94. The futures recovered all of Friday’s losses plus another dollar to start the week after the press conference from Secretary Rollins yielded no new information about the opening of the Mexican border. Friday’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as small buyers of the Live Cattle complex. They are now long 131,003 contracts which is still in the top 25% of their historical holding, but off their record of 156,909 set a few months ago. The USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon. Estimates are for cattle on feed to be 99.2% of a year ago, placements down 8.7% and marketings to be 13% lower than last year. The focal point of these reports has become the placement and on feed numbers from the state of Texas. The longer the Mexican border remains closed, the smaller their numbers have become as available Feeder Cattle supplies continue to remain tight.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures fell victim to a higher Corn market today, but performed relatively well compared to the Live Cattle complex. After Friday’s sharply lower finish, the Feeder Cattle gained back all of their losses to start this week. Friday’s action felt like long liquidation ahead of the anticipated press conference from Brooke Rollins. That conference resulted in no new news in regard to the Mexican border and the current closure that is in place. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to sell very well compared to the futures action over the past month. Since the highs made on August 27, the futures have lost over $15.000/cwt based on today’s close, while the CME Feeder Cattle index has only lost $4.88 since its high placed on September 8, and is actually $1.47 higher than the day the futures topped. This week’s Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show placements down nearly 9% compared to a year ago. Placements in the state of Texas were down 25% on the last report, a trend that looks to continue if the Mexican border remains closed.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs started the day strong with October posting a new contract high of 98.900. The morning pork cutout was $2.31 lower and the nearby futures turned lower. October finished the day 0.150 lower at 97.375 and December closed 0.625 lower at 88.225. The deferred months finished with small gains. The Lean Hog index continues to trade between the $105-$106 range and has not moved since the beginning of September. The cash Hog market started the week off stronger, with yesterday’s national average at $105.87 and this morning’s report showing an average of $105.97. The belly market appears to be under a little pressure as they we quoted $3.40 lower on yesterday afternoon’s report and another $2.00 on the midday report this morning. If the cutout continues to soften, packers may not be as aggressive on the Saturday slaughter due to the cash hanging in the $105 area.
Corn: Corn futures traded higher today and took out the first line of chart resistance in the process. Corn traded lower the entire day on Monday after challenging resistance levels following the USDA WASDE Report on Friday. The bottom line of that report was U.S. production will be huge this year with a record yield, along with the highest amount of harvested acres dating back to the 1930’s. But, the corn market has quietly added 40 cents from the lows set in the middle of August following that monthly WASDE Report. With production continuing to get revised higher, the futures rally is contradicting the anticipated supply of corn that is coming this fall. With the carry that has been built in the futures market to the deferred contracts, it is worth looking out into the spring and summer contracts and beginning to think about some sort of price protection. There is nearly a 30 cent carry to the July contract. In northwest Iowa, there is also basis improvement, which results in a cash improvement of 50 cents for July delivery compared to the current new crop bids.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Dec
429.50
6.25
CHI Wheat
Dec
534.00
9.00
KC Wheat
Dec
523.50
9.50
Soybeans
Nov
1049.75
7.00
Soy Oil
Oct
52.69
0.93
Soy Meal
Oct
285.80
0.60
Live Cattle
Oct
233.450
1.150
Feeder Cattle
Sept
358.325
0.475
Lean Hogs
Oct
97.375
0.150
Crude Oil
Oct
64.57
1.27
Ch Cutout
395.83
2.70
Sel Cutout
375.94
2.86
Feeder Index
362.15
0.93
Pork Cutout
114.07
0.44
Dollar Index
96.624
0.6780
DOW
45,765
118
National Corn Basis
-41.64
0.05
National Bean Basis
-79.78
0.65
Dates to Remember
September 19- Cattle on Feed
September 25- Hogs and Pigs Report
September 26- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
97.375
96.125
1.250
79.925
17.450
National Cash
105.87
103.83
2.04
96.96
8.91
Index
106.14
105.91
0.23
84.22
21.92
Cutout
114.07
116.38
2.31
94.22
19.85
IA/SMN Cash
106.65
104.36
2.29
77.20
29.45
IA/SMN Weights
286.30
282.50
3.80
284.00
2.30
Slaughter
2,514,000
2,314,000
200,000
2,576,414
62,414
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
242.58
184.19
South Cash
242.27
183.02
North Steer Basis
6.50
2.83
Choice Boxes
395.83
409.59
13.76
304.57
91.26
Select Boxes
375.94
388.33
12.39
292.14
83.77
Spread
19.89
21.26
1.37
12.43
7.46
Carcass Weights
874
872
2
852
22
Slaughter
561,000
487,000
74,000
623,990
62,990
FC Index
362.15
365.86
3.71
242.68
119.47
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$240.00
$183.00
KS
$239.72
$183.02
NE
$239.47
$184.19
IA/MN
$239.18
$184.38
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 9/9/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
131,003
561
-165,471
3,470
388,074
1,998
Feeder Cattle
25,636
2,739
-14,554
2,469
82,296
178
Lean Hogs
134,423
10,532
-187,125
5,501
384,660
1,638
Corn
-99,929
8,442
-92,370
9,487
1,505,121
12,556
Soybeans
-14,714
26,678
-103,071
13,546
886,460
4,333
Live Cattle Markets
October Live Cattle have failed to trade back above the 20-day MA. Resistance is at 234.750 and then the 20-day MA of 235.400. Support is at 228.800 and then the 50-day MA of 228.550.
Feeder Cattle Markets
October Feeder Cattle traded into overhead resistance again today. Resistance is at 356.125 and then the 20-day MA of 357.750. Support is at 344.900 and then the 50-day MA of 342.400.
Lean Hogs Markets
October Lean Hogs posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at that high of 98.900. Support is at 96.725 and then 95.375.
Corn Markets
December Corn took out the first line of resistance at 430 1/4 today. The next resistance level is at 432 3/4. Support is at 416 1/2 along with the 20-day MA of 416 1/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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9/16/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded lower today, led by the nearby months as the cash market and boxed beef markets remain weak. There has been no cash trade to this point of the week. Bids and offers have also been quiet. The feedlots will most likely price cattle at 240 to start the week while the packers will be looking to buy cattle around the 235 level. Boxed beef continues to work lower as it seasonally does throughout the month of September. This morning choice was $2.70 lower to $395.83 and is now $13.76 lower than the same time a week ago. Select was down $2.86 at $375.94. The futures recovered all of Friday’s losses plus another dollar to start the week after the press conference from Secretary Rollins yielded no new information about the opening of the Mexican border. Friday’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as small buyers of the Live Cattle complex. They are now long 131,003 contracts which is still in the top 25% of their historical holding, but off their record of 156,909 set a few months ago. The USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed Report Friday afternoon. Estimates are for cattle on feed to be 99.2% of a year ago, placements down 8.7% and marketings to be 13% lower than last year. The focal point of these reports has become the placement and on feed numbers from the state of Texas. The longer the Mexican border remains closed, the smaller their numbers have become as available Feeder Cattle supplies continue to remain tight.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures fell victim to a higher Corn market today, but performed relatively well compared to the Live Cattle complex. After Friday’s sharply lower finish, the Feeder Cattle gained back all of their losses to start this week. Friday’s action felt like long liquidation ahead of the anticipated press conference from Brooke Rollins. That conference resulted in no new news in regard to the Mexican border and the current closure that is in place. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to sell very well compared to the futures action over the past month. Since the highs made on August 27, the futures have lost over $15.000/cwt based on today’s close, while the CME Feeder Cattle index has only lost $4.88 since its high placed on September 8, and is actually $1.47 higher than the day the futures topped. This week’s Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show placements down nearly 9% compared to a year ago. Placements in the state of Texas were down 25% on the last report, a trend that looks to continue if the Mexican border remains closed.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs started the day strong with October posting a new contract high of 98.900. The morning pork cutout was $2.31 lower and the nearby futures turned lower. October finished the day 0.150 lower at 97.375 and December closed 0.625 lower at 88.225. The deferred months finished with small gains. The Lean Hog index continues to trade between the $105-$106 range and has not moved since the beginning of September. The cash Hog market started the week off stronger, with yesterday’s national average at $105.87 and this morning’s report showing an average of $105.97. The belly market appears to be under a little pressure as they we quoted $3.40 lower on yesterday afternoon’s report and another $2.00 on the midday report this morning. If the cutout continues to soften, packers may not be as aggressive on the Saturday slaughter due to the cash hanging in the $105 area.
Corn: Corn futures traded higher today and took out the first line of chart resistance in the process. Corn traded lower the entire day on Monday after challenging resistance levels following the USDA WASDE Report on Friday. The bottom line of that report was U.S. production will be huge this year with a record yield, along with the highest amount of harvested acres dating back to the 1930’s. But, the corn market has quietly added 40 cents from the lows set in the middle of August following that monthly WASDE Report. With production continuing to get revised higher, the futures rally is contradicting the anticipated supply of corn that is coming this fall. With the carry that has been built in the futures market to the deferred contracts, it is worth looking out into the spring and summer contracts and beginning to think about some sort of price protection. There is nearly a 30 cent carry to the July contract. In northwest Iowa, there is also basis improvement, which results in a cash improvement of 50 cents for July delivery compared to the current new crop bids.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
September 19- Cattle on Feed
September 25- Hogs and Pigs Report
September 26- Cold Storage
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 9/9/2025
Live Cattle Markets
October Live Cattle have failed to trade back above the 20-day MA. Resistance is at 234.750 and then the 20-day MA of 235.400. Support is at 228.800 and then the 50-day MA of 228.550.
Feeder Cattle Markets
October Feeder Cattle traded into overhead resistance again today. Resistance is at 356.125 and then the 20-day MA of 357.750. Support is at 344.900 and then the 50-day MA of 342.400.
Lean Hogs Markets
October Lean Hogs posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at that high of 98.900. Support is at 96.725 and then 95.375.
Corn Markets
December Corn took out the first line of resistance at 430 1/4 today. The next resistance level is at 432 3/4. Support is at 416 1/2 along with the 20-day MA of 416 1/4.