9/19/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have been stuck in a technical range for the past two weeks as traders wait to see if the cash market can hold onto the current levels. Cash in the North this week was mainly 237 on a live basis and 370 on a dressed basis. The South waited until Friday to trade the majority of their cattle and received 240. This would be two dollars lower than last week for the North and steady with a week ago for the South. Boxed beef continued its slide lower this week. This morning choice was quoted at $383.01 which is $17.48 lower than last Friday. Select is at $359.09, down $19.18 on the week. Boxed beef historically works lower through the month of September before finding support in October as holiday demand helps support price. This year has been no different to this point. Slaughter this week was estimated at 552,000 head, down 13,000 from last week and well below estimates for this week. The packers continue to walk a fine line of increasing slaughter and decreasing the price of boxed beef. The USDA released their monthly Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon and showed a 1% decrease of cattle on feed compared to a year ago. Texas remains 9% below a year ago, while Iowa and Nebraska both have 5% more cattle on feed.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the week higher and will show a weekly gain for the first time in three weeks. The CME Feeder Cattle index has not worked lower to the extent of the futures market and has now helped the futures rebound from their lows. The Corn market also traded into stiff resistance in the middle of the week and has backed off, helping support the Feeder Cattle futures market. The CME Feeder Cattle index through Thursday’s sales is at $360.63 which is $1.99 lower than the previous day. This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report shows placements for the month of August down 10% from last year, which is 196,000 head less. The state of Texas placed 18% less cattle than a year ago, while Iowa saw a 13% decrease and Nebraska was down 4%. Feeder Cattle supplies remain tight in the country, causing cash Feeder Cattle to remain strong and in high demand. This does not look to change until the Mexican border is opened and more Feeder Cattle will be available to the United States.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs finished the week on a positive note, with the nearby October contract closing 0.500 higher at 97.975. The Lean Hog index is currently at $105.70, continuing to hold a $7.00 to $8.00 premium to the October contract.  The summer months showed the biggest gains today with June, July, and August all finishing at least 0.700 higher. The pork cutout lost some steam this week as yesterday afternoon’s price was $111.95 which is down $2.12 from where we started the week, but more than $17 higher than the same time a year ago. High boxed beef prices could help contribute to the pork cutout remaining strong in the future. Cash Hogs continue to trade in the $105 area which is $28 above the national market last year at this time. The Hogs and Pigs Report will be released next Thursday, giving a better baseline on inventory counts.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week near their weekly lows as the futures failed to trade through technical resistance.  The grain complex as a whole traded poorly on Friday as President Trump was meeting with China and no positive news surfaced from those talks. The two plan to meet again in a few months and maybe agricultural trade will be a topic of discussion at that time, but it was not a main topic today. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of 19,878 contracts for the week, decreasing their net short position to 80,051 contracts. CONAB released their initial Brazilian production estimates for 2026 this week. Corn production is expected to be down slightly from this year, with an increase of roughly 3% in planted area. Weekly exports were decent again this week but at a 10-week low.