10/28/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures spent the majority of the day higher before finishing the day mixed. Live Cattle futures have followed the Feeder Cattle futures lower and in turn, moved the cash market lower. Cash trade last week was mainly 237-240 in the North. Up to this point of the week, there has been some 230 trade in Iowa and Nebraska yesterday morning, while the South has yet to trade. The trade in the North is not done for the week, but the early trade has most likely set the market for the week. Boxed beef was mixed this morning with choice up $0.80 to $378.68 while select was down $0.30 to $361.36. The decline in the futures market started with comments from President Trump stating that he was going to decrease the price of beef. Since that time, the futures market has fallen significantly while boxed beef has moved higher. Simply stating that the price of the beef needs to be decreased is not going to lower the price to consumers, but it has shaken up the futures market and the managed money that was long the complex. Tomorrow the futures markets are back to normal limits for the first time since last Friday.

Feeder Cattle: Deferred Feeder Cattle futures have now lost over $60 during the course of the last eight days, which has included four limit lower finishes. The deferred contracts continue to see the biggest losses as worries about the re-opening of the Mexican border are at the front of everyone’s minds. This would result in an increase of Feeder Cattle supplies in 2026. There has been no update on the meeting that is supposed to be taking place between the U.S. and Mexico to discuss the reopening of the Mexican border. Mexico announced last week that they would be sending a delegate to Washington, DC to meet with the U.S. and discuss opening the border. There has been no indication from the U.S. as to whether that meeting was accepted or what would be discussed if it does take place. The CME Feeder Cattle index has started its descent as cash Feeder Cattle have moved sharply lower across the country. Today’s index through Monday’s sales is at $360.25, which is down $7.30 from Friday’s sales. The daily average for Monday was $335.33, $31.20 lower than a week ago. Most sale barns are seeing a decrease of $300-$450 per head across all classes of cattle compared to a week or ten days ago.

Lean Hogs: Both days this week Lean Hogs have traded higher to start the day before turning lower. December closed 0.675 lower at 80.825, which is now an 11.45 discount to the Lean Hog index. The December contract was able to close above the 200-day MA of 80.650 which is the next support level. Cash hogs are staying near $85 as packers continue to seek hogs to cover their slaughter needs. The pork cutout climbed back above the $100 level to end last week and has held above this level as this morning’s cutout report showed $101.04. As President Trump’s meeting with China nears, it is unlikely we will see the pork market benefit from any trade deals with China as they currently have an oversupply of hogs and are looking at cutting sow numbers. The one trade factor that could influence the U.S. Lean Hog market would be the trade deal with Malaysia where all federally inspected plants could export to the country rather than just the eight that are currently approved.

Corn: Corn futures have found support this week after a trade deal between the U.S. and China developed over the weekend. That deal is expected to be signed by both countries sometime this week and looks to increase the amount of soybean exports to China. This trade deal is more important and will benefit the soybean market more than Corn, but Corn futures have followed the soybean futures higher the first two days of the week. Export inspections were released yesterday morning and were a disappointment. Total corn shipments for the week ending October 23, were the smallest weekly total in three months. The weekly CFTC reports have not been released due to the government shutdown, but the managed money has been buying back their short position the last few weeks. Yesterday’s higher move in the futures came with a decrease in open interest, indicating there was short covering taking place.