11/4/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures followed the Feeder Cattle complex lower today. Live Cattle started the week trading higher after there was some 237 cash trade in the South on Saturday. It is rare that many packers are out buying cattle on a Saturday, and even more rare to be paying higher money. Early expectations for this week were for higher cash in both the North and the South, but after today’s lower finish those expectations may be reevaluated as the hedgers look to manage basis. Boxed beef was mixed this morning. Choice was quoted at $377.64, down $1.61, while select was up $3.17 at $363.10. Boxed beef has found resistance near $380 after seeing a good recovery during the month of October. The headlines and comments from President Trump about lowering the price of beef has lowered all prices within the cattle sector, except boxed beef. Last week, beef imports from Mexico were up over 35% compared to the same week a year ago. Since we cannot import the live animals, we have began importing more product from Mexico. There has been no update surrounding the 50% tariff on Brazil since the meeting between President Trump and Brazil last week, but beef and cattle remain in the headlines, creating uncertainty within the futures market.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded sharply lower and posted new lows near the end of the day today as traders continue to fear an opening of the Mexican border. Secretary Rollins is in Mexico this week, and after meetings yesterday, announced that the U.S. is not yet ready to reopen the border for Feeder Cattle imports, but President Trump is “very focused” on moving to reopen the border. Feeder Cattle futures opened over 3.000/cwt higher this morning as the market had feared that yesterday’s meeting could show positive progress between the two countries. During the day, it was announced that there will be more discussion during a meeting tomorrow and the futures quickly moved lower. The actual opening of the border would increase the supply of Feeder Cattle into the U.S., but it would not make a fundamental change overnight. It would take time to get the protocols and procedures in line to safely import Feeder Cattle from Mexico, but without the market knowing whether the border is going to open next week or in six months, and constant news of meetings that will be taking place, the managed money is exiting the Feeder Cattle complex. Open interest in the Feeder Cattle complex is down to 69,520 contracts and shrinking as many traders find the safest place to be is on the sidelines.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures started the week lower with the nearby December contract closing down 0.675 on Monday. That downward trend carried into Tuesday with December closing down another 0.675, settling at 79.925. The Lean Hog index continues to tick downward, but not to the extent of the nearby futures, as the index still holds a $11 premium to the December contract. The cash hog market continues to carry a positive basis as packers look to fill their Saturday needs, keeping the cash market steady in the $85 range. This morning the pork cutout was quoted at $99.32 on 195 loads. President Trump did sign the trade deal with both Malaysia and Cambodia, and the countries will now take pork products from all FSIS plants. The Malaysia trade deal should be beneficial to the U.S. hog market. In 2024, U.S. exports totaled $24.5 million which is substantial as the U.S. was only able to export from eight approved packing plants. In the last five years, exports to Malaysia have increased over 1,700%. The ASF outbreak that started in the country in 2021 has helped ramp up the exports substantially.

Corn: Corn futures traded lower all day today after testing overhead resistance both days this week. Export inspections released yesterday showed another good week of corn shipments. Mexico, South Korea, and Japan were again at the top of the list of destinations. Corn demand has remained strong and has helped support price even with the unknown of what U.S. corn production is for 2025. The USDA announced that they will be releasing this month’s WASDE report on November 14 regardless of whether the government is open or not. There was no clarification as to whether the October report will be included in this report or if all of the numbers will come as one in the report. This report will give an update on production along with demand and show the current U.S. carryout. The Corn market continues to follow the direction of the soybean market as news has been limited. Soybeans have rallied over a dollar from their lows set in the middle of October when the news of positive talks with China and the resulting trade deal was reached. Rumors over the weekend indicated that China has purchased soybeans from Brazil and this has added to the skepticism that China will not hold up their end of the deal.