11/18/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the day mixed with the lead months losing the most. Traders are waiting for the cash market this week to set a direction within the futures market. After Monday’s higher close, many were thinking that cash would be steady to higher, but after watching sale barns sell fat cattle today, it would appear that a steady market this week would be a victory. Boxed beef was mixed this morning with choice being quoted $2.87 higher at $373.28, while select was $0.55 lower at $355.75. Packer margins have improved with the somewhat stabilized product market, and the packers have increased chain speed as a result. Last week’s slaughter was estimated at 576,000, the highest weekly total since the beginning of June, and through the first two days this week, there have been 8,000 more head slaughtered than the same time last week. The USDA will release their Cattle on Feed Report on Friday at 2pm. Estimates are for cattle on feed to be down 2.1%, placements 92.2% and marketings 92.5% compared to last October. CFTC reports will resume tomorrow and will not be caught up to the current market on positions until January 23, but this will get the industry headed back to a current look at the fund position.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures opened the week sharply lower but finished yesterday sharply higher. That buying carried into the start of the day today before the market turned lower and ultimately finished mixed. The CME Feeder Cattle index has been quoted lower the past two days and has fallen below the $340 mark for the first time since the beginning of August. The November contract will expire at noon on Thursday and will leave the January contract as the lead month. Currently, the January contract is $13.44 below the index, but will not need to converge until the end of January. With the discounted deferred Live Cattle contracts and a carry within the Corn complex, the Feeder Cattle futures are indicating that cash Feeder Cattle can continue to work lower. Estimates for the Cattle on Feed Report for Feeder Cattle placed into feed yards during the month of October are 92.2% of a year ago. Last October was the highest placement total since 2019 and that was with the smallest calf crop in history. For the first half of October 2025, the market was at all-time highs, enticing the ranchers to sell their cattle and not hold onto them to sell later. There is no question that a lot of calves were sold and placed in the month of October, but that will be compared to a very high number from last year.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures posted new lows for the move today and many of the contracts finished near those lows. The Lean Hog complex saw a very nice move higher at the beginning of last week, but that only lasted two days. The cash fundamentals continue to work lower and are now all lower than levels a year ago. The pork cutout was quoted nearly $2 higher on Friday but there was no follow through on Monday as it was down $0.21 to $97.01. The national cash average was higher yesterday after seven days in a row of lower cash trade. Even with the higher quote yesterday the national cash average is $7.81 lower than last week. Iowa/Southern Minnesota hog weights have become more steady over the past few weeks but still remain 5.3 pounds heavier than a year ago. Last week’s slaughter was estimated at 2,716,000 head which is 88,000 head higher than the previous week and 84,000 head more than a year ago. Heavier weights and increased slaughter numbers will keep the pork cutout suppressed and make it hard for prices to recover.

Corn: Corn futures have finished higher both days this week after a lower finish on Friday following the WASDE Report. The Corn market had broke out to the upside at the end of last week prior to the bearish report that the USDA released. Friday’s sell off returned the charts to support levels and that brought buyers back to the market. Today’s close in the December contract was above the 200-day MA for only the third time since May, but it is the second close above that line in three days. Export inspections were released yesterday and corn exports were well above the average estimates with the top three destinations being Mexico, Japan and South Korea. The soybean complex led the grain markets higher yesterday after China purchased a large quantity of U.S. soybeans. The bearish numbers that were released in the WASDE report were forgot about as traders finally saw China make a substantial purchase.