Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week higher but did not break through overhead resistance. Cash trade this week has yet to develop in the South but the North traded at 228 on Thursday as feedlots capitalized on a positive basis. Boxed beef was slightly higher this week despite the third week in a row with a large slaughter total. Choice was quoted $3.61 higher this morning at $360.89 and select was up $3.57 to $347.54. The choice/select spread remains extremely tight for this time of year and is currently over $23 less than a year ago. Currently, the industry is seeing over 85% of cattle grade choice or better. This is mainly due to cattle being on feed longer than the industry has typically seen. Demand for hamburger and lower cuts of meat has also risen with the increased price of boxed beef in the last two years. This week’s slaughter was estimated at 587,000 which is 5,000 head lower than last week but toward the higher end of yearly totals. This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report showed total cattle on feed in the U.S. down 2% compared to a year ago and marketings down 12% compared to last November. Total on feed counts in the South continue to lag behind a year ago while the northern states are 3% to 5% larger.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures broke through technical resistance levels this morning and are now eyeing the gaps on the charts that were left in October. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to hold a premium to all futures contracts as many salebarns are again setting all-time record sales. Some classes of Feeder Cattle are now selling just as high as we saw at the beginning of October when the Feeder Cattle futures were trading at 380.000 and Live Cattle futures were at 250.000. Optimism for future prices, tight supplies of available Feeder Cattle, and stagnant Corn prices have all contributed to the high price of Feeder Cattle. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of November down 11% compared to a year ago. Kansas and Texas saw sharply lower placements again this month as the closure of the Mexican border continues to hamper their ability to find Feeder Cattle. Texas placements were down 17% or 60,000 head. Kansas placed 80,000 less cattle than a year ago or 20% less. Nebraska also placed 10% less cattle while Iowa placed 3% more cattle than November 2024.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures saw a slight recovery heading into the weekend and finished higher four of the five days this week. The pork cutout continues to support the complex as both domestic and export demand remain strong. The pork cutout has held above $95 for the past ten days and spent five days above $98. This is the first time that the pork cutout has traded above $98 in the month of December in history. Even with the cutout being supported, the cash markets have been softer and currently sit at new lows. The lower cash markets would indicate that there are plenty of market-ready hogs available to the packers and with the holiday-shortened kill weeks ahead, the packers are not willing to pay up to buy hogs. The USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Tuesday next week and the first Cold Storage Report since before the government shutdown.
Corn: Corn futures traded in a very tight range today as news surrounding the Corn market has been limited and the Soybean complex continues to work lower. The USDA continues to release export data and they are getting closer to getting caught up to real time. This week’s release was through November 27 and showed another good week of sales. Year-to-date Corn exports are 30% larger than the same time a year ago and well above the pace needed to meet the current USDA export goal. There has been no confirmation to the rumors that China has been buying U.S. Corn. The sales that have been marked as “unknown” destinations created speculation that China was buying U.S. corn to replenish their stocks that are currently at 12-year lows. The bottom line for the Corn market is that demand is very strong and supply is not overbearing, but it is hard to sustain a rally when the Soybean complex has found no support and continues to push to new lows.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Mar
443.75
0.75
CHI Wheat
Mar
509.75
2.00
KC Wheat
Mar
515.25
1.75
Soybeans
Jan
1049.25
3.00
Soy Oil
Jan
47.90
0.21
Soy Meal
Mar
301.10
1.20
Live Cattle
Dec
230.400
1.975
Feeder Cattle
Jan
345.600
5.325
Lean Hogs
Feb
84.500
0.375
Crude Oil
Jan
56.66
0.51
Ch Cutout
360.89
3.61
Sel Cutout
347.54
3.57
Feeder Index
351.18
1.13
Pork Cutout
97.43
1.11
Dollar Index
98.608
0.1810
DOW
48,182
230
National Corn Basis
-40.17
0.29
National Bean Basis
-67.69
0.35
Dates to Remember
December 19- Cattle on Feed Report
December 23- Hogs and Pigs Report
December 23- Cold Storage Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
84.500
83.325
1.175
83.625
0.875
National Cash
68.65
71.69
3.04
79.45
10.80
Index
83.88
82.57
1.31
84.35
0.47
Cutout
97.43
98.84
1.41
96.15
1.28
IA/SMN Cash
68.76
71.53
2.77
78.02
9.26
IA/SMN Weights
294.10
295.10
1.00
289.50
4.60
Slaughter
2,683,000
2,722,000
39,000
2,582,327
100,673
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
228
228.26
Steady
195.10
32.90
South Cash
230.00
191.04
North Steer Basis
0.75
-2.00
2.75
2.16
1.41
Choice Boxes
360.89
357.26
3.63
320.69
40.20
Select Boxes
347.54
344.78
2.76
284.11
63.43
Spread
13.35
12.48
0.87
36.58
23.23
Carcass Weights
900
896
4
869
31
Slaughter
587,000
596,000
9,000
615,629
28,629
FC Index
351.18
346.77
4.41
262.33
88.85
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
N/A
$191.00
KS
$230.00
$191.04
NE
228
$228.26
$195.10
IA/MN
228
$227.58
$195.11
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 12/9/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
88,290
6,082
-138,816
9,229
325,767
1,151
Feeder Cattle
14,261
843
-8,140
220
66,847
87
Lean Hogs
51,471
4,821
-116,541
2,244
281,042
1,023
Corn
9,718
13,552
-252,216
20,113
1,519,871
6,158
Soybeans
180,338
35,088
-301,929
31,123
870,861
8,672
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle tested the 100-day MA today. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 231.950 and then today’s high of 232.075. Support is at 226.850 and 225.650.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle traded to the highest level since October today. Resistance is at 347.450 and then 348.175. Support is at the 100-day MA of 341.600 followed by 337.000.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs could not trade through the 100-day MA this week. Resistance is at 84.775 and then the 100-day MA of 85.375. Support is at 82.400 followed by the 20-day MA of 81.975.
Corn Markets
March Corn finished above the 20-day MA today. Support is at the 20-day MA of 443 1/4 and then 436. Resistance is at 446 followed by the 200-day MA of 446 1/4.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
Let's Talk
Producers Livestock offers livestock sourcing and marketing, commodities trading and hedging and loans and credit facilities to farmers and processors in the Midwestern US and Central Plains.
12/19/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week higher but did not break through overhead resistance. Cash trade this week has yet to develop in the South but the North traded at 228 on Thursday as feedlots capitalized on a positive basis. Boxed beef was slightly higher this week despite the third week in a row with a large slaughter total. Choice was quoted $3.61 higher this morning at $360.89 and select was up $3.57 to $347.54. The choice/select spread remains extremely tight for this time of year and is currently over $23 less than a year ago. Currently, the industry is seeing over 85% of cattle grade choice or better. This is mainly due to cattle being on feed longer than the industry has typically seen. Demand for hamburger and lower cuts of meat has also risen with the increased price of boxed beef in the last two years. This week’s slaughter was estimated at 587,000 which is 5,000 head lower than last week but toward the higher end of yearly totals. This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report showed total cattle on feed in the U.S. down 2% compared to a year ago and marketings down 12% compared to last November. Total on feed counts in the South continue to lag behind a year ago while the northern states are 3% to 5% larger.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures broke through technical resistance levels this morning and are now eyeing the gaps on the charts that were left in October. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to hold a premium to all futures contracts as many salebarns are again setting all-time record sales. Some classes of Feeder Cattle are now selling just as high as we saw at the beginning of October when the Feeder Cattle futures were trading at 380.000 and Live Cattle futures were at 250.000. Optimism for future prices, tight supplies of available Feeder Cattle, and stagnant Corn prices have all contributed to the high price of Feeder Cattle. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of November down 11% compared to a year ago. Kansas and Texas saw sharply lower placements again this month as the closure of the Mexican border continues to hamper their ability to find Feeder Cattle. Texas placements were down 17% or 60,000 head. Kansas placed 80,000 less cattle than a year ago or 20% less. Nebraska also placed 10% less cattle while Iowa placed 3% more cattle than November 2024.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures saw a slight recovery heading into the weekend and finished higher four of the five days this week. The pork cutout continues to support the complex as both domestic and export demand remain strong. The pork cutout has held above $95 for the past ten days and spent five days above $98. This is the first time that the pork cutout has traded above $98 in the month of December in history. Even with the cutout being supported, the cash markets have been softer and currently sit at new lows. The lower cash markets would indicate that there are plenty of market-ready hogs available to the packers and with the holiday-shortened kill weeks ahead, the packers are not willing to pay up to buy hogs. The USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Tuesday next week and the first Cold Storage Report since before the government shutdown.
Corn: Corn futures traded in a very tight range today as news surrounding the Corn market has been limited and the Soybean complex continues to work lower. The USDA continues to release export data and they are getting closer to getting caught up to real time. This week’s release was through November 27 and showed another good week of sales. Year-to-date Corn exports are 30% larger than the same time a year ago and well above the pace needed to meet the current USDA export goal. There has been no confirmation to the rumors that China has been buying U.S. Corn. The sales that have been marked as “unknown” destinations created speculation that China was buying U.S. corn to replenish their stocks that are currently at 12-year lows. The bottom line for the Corn market is that demand is very strong and supply is not overbearing, but it is hard to sustain a rally when the Soybean complex has found no support and continues to push to new lows.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
December 19- Cattle on Feed Report
December 23- Hogs and Pigs Report
December 23- Cold Storage Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 12/9/2025
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle tested the 100-day MA today. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 231.950 and then today’s high of 232.075. Support is at 226.850 and 225.650.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle traded to the highest level since October today. Resistance is at 347.450 and then 348.175. Support is at the 100-day MA of 341.600 followed by 337.000.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs could not trade through the 100-day MA this week. Resistance is at 84.775 and then the 100-day MA of 85.375. Support is at 82.400 followed by the 20-day MA of 81.975.
Corn Markets
March Corn finished above the 20-day MA today. Support is at the 20-day MA of 443 1/4 and then 436. Resistance is at 446 followed by the 200-day MA of 446 1/4.