Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished higher today on a very lightly traded day. The December contract will expire at noon tomorrow and it was the largest gaining contract within the complex, finishing 2.275 higher at 231.175. This would indicate that cash expectations are for higher money this week. Showlists have an increased number of cattle compared to a week ago, and the packers will most likely need to buy some cattle as there has been very limited trade for the past two weeks. This morning, choice beef was quoted $0.82 lower at $348.51, while select was $0.06 higher at $345.68. The choice/select spread is now at $2.83 and at the tightest levels in recent history. The choice/select spread did go negative back in the beginning of 2022, but this is a very rare occurrence. Last year at this time, the choice/select spread was trading at $30.61. There are many reasons that this spread is this narrow, and there may not be one right answer. Typically, when the choice/select spread is narrow it indicates that beef demand is not great. Currently, beef demand is shown at 40-year highs. The reason for this year may just be better grading cattle and an influx of choice and prime beef. During the month of December 2024, 69.95% of cattle harvested in Texas graded choice or better. Through the first three weeks of December 2025, 75.51% of cattle killed in Texas plants are grading choice or better. On a national level, 85.97% of cattle are prime or choice so far this month, which is a 2.71% increase year over year. With the Mexican border being closed, there has been an increase in grade of cattle. Cattle that typically go on feed for 150 days in Texas yards and were not quality U.S. cattle are no longer being slaughtered in U.S. plants and that has increased the grade of cattle for the entire United States.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have enjoyed the lower corn market the first two days this week and have pushed to new highs for the move. The March contract filled its gap on the chart perfectly today, while the January contract traded back above 350.000 for the first time since October 24. The CME Feeder Cattle index has been extremely volatile the past few days as very limited amounts of Feeder Cattle are being sold around the holiday weeks. Today’s release of the CME Feeder Cattle index was $7.96 lower at $348.04. The light volume of sales will remain until the beginning of next week before sale barns begin big runs of cattle again. The Feeder Cattle futures have come to an interesting spot as we end the year. Some technical objectives have been met and the cash market continues to move higher. The start of 2026 will be telling as to the direction that the complex will take for the first part of the new year.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures broke their three day losing streak today and pushed back to the upper end of the range. There has been very limited news surrounding the Lean Hog complex since last week’s Hogs and Pigs Report. If there is one thing that has been talked about, it is the continued disease pressure that is affecting the U.S. hog herd. The deferred futures remain supported and from July on, all set new contract highs today. With the cutout being fairly supported in the mid $90 area, talk of disease pressure affecting inventories into mid 2026 and strong export demand, traders have continued to build and hold premium in the deferred contracts.
Corn: After posting new highs for the month of December to end last week, Corn futures have finished lower three days in a row and took out many downside chart support areas. The March contract has lost nearly 10 cents the past two days and will look at the 100-day MA and the low from the middle of the month as support areas. Export inspections were released yesterday and were lower than weeks past but still a very good number for a holiday week. Corn exports currently exceed the pace needed to meet the USDA goal by 21%. Mexico, Columbia, and Japan were the top destinations this week. Weather in South America remains to be something that traders are keeping a close eye on as the two countries look to have a record crop.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Mar
440.50
1.75
CHI Wheat
Mar
510.75
2.25
KC Wheat
Mar
522.00
5.25
Soybeans
Jan
1046.25
3.25
Soy Oil
Jan
48.93
0.15
Soy Meal
Mar
302.30
1.00
Live Cattle
Dec
231.175
2.275
Feeder Cattle
Jan
349.550
2.550
Lean Hogs
Feb
85.450
0.975
Crude Oil
Feb
57.94
0.14
Ch Cutout
348.51
0.82
Sel Cutout
345.68
0.06
Feeder Index
348.04
7.96
Pork Cutout
95.96
1.75
Dollar Index
98.213
0.1760
DOW
48,404
57
National Corn Basis
-38.48
0.52
National Bean Basis
-65.21
1.30
Dates to Remember
December 31- December Live Cattle Expiration
January 1- Markets Closed
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
85.450
85.975
0.525
81.625
3.825
National Cash
67.19
67.16
0.03
78.81
11.62
Index
82.44
83.71
1.27
84.27
1.83
Cutout
95.96
98.41
2.45
94.36
1.60
IA/SMN Cash
67.19
67.38
0.19
79.67
12.48
IA/SMN Weights
291.90
294.10
2.20
289.70
2.20
Slaughter
1,978,000
2,686,000
708,000
2,063,628
85,628
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
229.67
199.95
South Cash
229.00
196.08
North Steer Basis
0.25
3.25
Choice Boxes
348.51
359.83
11.32
325.37
23.14
Select Boxes
345.68
351.87
6.19
294.76
49.08
Spread
2.83
7.96
5.13
30.61
27.78
Carcass Weights
894
900
6
868
26
Slaughter
429,000
587,000
158,000
433,042
4,042
FC Index
348.04
353.08
5.04
253.97
94.07
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
N/A
$196.05
KS
$229.00
$196.08
NE
$229.67
$199.95
IA/MN
$229.22
$199.71
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 12/16/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
91,303
3,013
-143,273
4,457
326,513
879
Feeder Cattle
14,094
167
-8,069
71
68,563
418
Lean Hogs
64,836
13,365
-125,763
9,222
291,823
702
Corn
-52,672
62,390
-192,961
59,225
1,535,132
11,894
Soybeans
147,778
32,560
-277,293
24,636
792,860
15,996
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle continue to trade within the same range. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 232.050 and then 232.325. Support is at the 20-day MA of 228.275 followed by 227.550.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle traded through 350.000 today. Resistance is at 350.075 and then 356.875. Support is at 342.725 followed by the 20-day MA of 340.925.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs finished above the 100-day MA today. Resistance is at 86.225 and then 86.375. Support is at 83.825 followed by the 20-day MA of 83.600.
Corn Markets
March Corn has finished lower three days in a row. Support is at the 100-day MA of 438 1/2 followed by 435 1/2. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 444 1/2 and then 453.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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12/30/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished higher today on a very lightly traded day. The December contract will expire at noon tomorrow and it was the largest gaining contract within the complex, finishing 2.275 higher at 231.175. This would indicate that cash expectations are for higher money this week. Showlists have an increased number of cattle compared to a week ago, and the packers will most likely need to buy some cattle as there has been very limited trade for the past two weeks. This morning, choice beef was quoted $0.82 lower at $348.51, while select was $0.06 higher at $345.68. The choice/select spread is now at $2.83 and at the tightest levels in recent history. The choice/select spread did go negative back in the beginning of 2022, but this is a very rare occurrence. Last year at this time, the choice/select spread was trading at $30.61. There are many reasons that this spread is this narrow, and there may not be one right answer. Typically, when the choice/select spread is narrow it indicates that beef demand is not great. Currently, beef demand is shown at 40-year highs. The reason for this year may just be better grading cattle and an influx of choice and prime beef. During the month of December 2024, 69.95% of cattle harvested in Texas graded choice or better. Through the first three weeks of December 2025, 75.51% of cattle killed in Texas plants are grading choice or better. On a national level, 85.97% of cattle are prime or choice so far this month, which is a 2.71% increase year over year. With the Mexican border being closed, there has been an increase in grade of cattle. Cattle that typically go on feed for 150 days in Texas yards and were not quality U.S. cattle are no longer being slaughtered in U.S. plants and that has increased the grade of cattle for the entire United States.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have enjoyed the lower corn market the first two days this week and have pushed to new highs for the move. The March contract filled its gap on the chart perfectly today, while the January contract traded back above 350.000 for the first time since October 24. The CME Feeder Cattle index has been extremely volatile the past few days as very limited amounts of Feeder Cattle are being sold around the holiday weeks. Today’s release of the CME Feeder Cattle index was $7.96 lower at $348.04. The light volume of sales will remain until the beginning of next week before sale barns begin big runs of cattle again. The Feeder Cattle futures have come to an interesting spot as we end the year. Some technical objectives have been met and the cash market continues to move higher. The start of 2026 will be telling as to the direction that the complex will take for the first part of the new year.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures broke their three day losing streak today and pushed back to the upper end of the range. There has been very limited news surrounding the Lean Hog complex since last week’s Hogs and Pigs Report. If there is one thing that has been talked about, it is the continued disease pressure that is affecting the U.S. hog herd. The deferred futures remain supported and from July on, all set new contract highs today. With the cutout being fairly supported in the mid $90 area, talk of disease pressure affecting inventories into mid 2026 and strong export demand, traders have continued to build and hold premium in the deferred contracts.
Corn: After posting new highs for the month of December to end last week, Corn futures have finished lower three days in a row and took out many downside chart support areas. The March contract has lost nearly 10 cents the past two days and will look at the 100-day MA and the low from the middle of the month as support areas. Export inspections were released yesterday and were lower than weeks past but still a very good number for a holiday week. Corn exports currently exceed the pace needed to meet the USDA goal by 21%. Mexico, Columbia, and Japan were the top destinations this week. Weather in South America remains to be something that traders are keeping a close eye on as the two countries look to have a record crop.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
December 31- December Live Cattle Expiration
January 1- Markets Closed
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 12/16/2025
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle continue to trade within the same range. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 232.050 and then 232.325. Support is at the 20-day MA of 228.275 followed by 227.550.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle traded through 350.000 today. Resistance is at 350.075 and then 356.875. Support is at 342.725 followed by the 20-day MA of 340.925.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs finished above the 100-day MA today. Resistance is at 86.225 and then 86.375. Support is at 83.825 followed by the 20-day MA of 83.600.
Corn Markets
March Corn has finished lower three days in a row. Support is at the 100-day MA of 438 1/2 followed by 435 1/2. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 444 1/2 and then 453.