Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures started 2026 by breaking through overhead resistance and pushing to the highest levels since October 24. The February contract had tested the 100-day MA many times but could not trade through until today. After breaking through that line, the gap on the charts from October was filled and now leaves limited resistance areas between here and the contract highs. The cash market will need to show signs of support and improvement in order for the money flow to push the futures that high, but technically, today opened up the top-side in the market. Cash cattle this week has been quiet and very slow. There have been cattle traded today at 232 in the North, while the South has yet to trade with the packers bidding 232. Today’s 232 cash price and the February futures finishing 4.400 higher has created the worst basis in recent history, and possibly in the last two years. Basis has been abnormally good since the beginning of 2024, but the last three months has seen basis levels return to more historical averages or even a bit below that. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice quoted $1.25 higher at $348.70 and select up $4.56 to $346.94. The choice/select spread has now moved to new lows at $1.76 as the choice cutout has drifted lower than many expectations. The better grading cattle that were mentioned last week can partially be to blame, but it sure seems there are some difficulties taking place in selling the higher priced cuts.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures were the leaders of the cattle complex today and finished the day sharply higher across the board. The Feeder Cattle charts have looked significantly better than the Live Cattle charts for some time now and the start of a new year brought new fund money into the complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index dipped below the $350 level earlier this week on very limited amounts of volume. Today, the index was quoted $1.78 higher at $350.22. The start of 2026 will bring big runs of cattle at the sale barns, and big demand will definitely push the index to new highs for the recent move. As of today’s close, the January futures are at a $5.88 premium to the CME Feeder Cattle index. Open interest has slowly increased within the complex and before today, was near 70,000 contracts again. After today, and what looked to be significant fund buying, open interest should be back to multi-month highs.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished lower through the June contract today, while the far out deferreds finished slightly higher and remain near contract highs. Support remains in the deferred contracts as traders question whether the large supplies of hogs the USDA is showing will truly show up this summer. The managed money has been buying the Lean Hog complex the past three weeks and has now added nearly 30,000 contracts of long positions in that time according to the latest CFTC data through December 23. The USDA released retail price data for the first time since the government shutdown and it showed a relatively flat pork price compared to a year ago but a record spread between pork and beef. This cannot hurt pork demand especially at the meat counter where consumers are facing record beef prices. Pork demand has remained strong both domestically and via export for all of 2025 as Mexico has become a consistent customer for U.S. pork, something that will hopefully hold into 2026.
Corn: Corn futures spent the majority of the day in negative territory and have now finished lower five days in a row after posting new highs for the month of December last Friday. After posting that new high, the charts looked much better and opened up top-side to the highs from the middle of November. Now, futures are near the lows of the range going back to the middle of October, an area that has held the market twice. The latest CFTC data as of December 23, shows the managed money long nearly 3,000 contracts, the first net long position since May 2025. The USDA will release their next WASDE and Crop Production Report on January 12, giving an update to the 2025 production, along with new demand numbers for export, feed, and ethanol usage.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Mar
437.50
2.75
CHI Wheat
Mar
506.50
0.50
KC Wheat
Mar
515.00
0.25
Soybeans
Mar
1045.75
1.75
Soy Oil
Jan
48.87
0.80
Soy Meal
Mar
296.00
3.40
Live Cattle
Feb
236.000
4.400
Feeder Cattle
Jan
356.100
5.850
Lean Hogs
Feb
84.100
1.000
Crude Oil
Feb
57.28
0.14
Ch Cutout
348.70
1.25
Sel Cutout
346.94
4.56
Feeder Index
350.22
1.78
Pork Cutout
93.74
0.39
Dollar Index
98.434
0.1120
DOW
48,345
281
National Corn Basis
-38.34
0.06
National Bean Basis
-61.38
1.70
Dates to Remember
January 12- WASDE Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
84.100
84.525
0.425
81.150
2.950
National Cash
70.19
69.43
0.76
79.59
9.40
Index
82.26
83.71
1.45
83.12
0.86
Cutout
93.74
93.66
0.08
89.32
4.42
IA/SMN Cash
69.08
67.38
1.70
80.35
11.27
IA/SMN Weights
294.20
291.90
2.30
292.30
1.90
Slaughter
2,228,000
1,978,000
250,000
2,269,794
41,794
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
230-232
229.67
2-3 Higher
199.95
31.05
South Cash
229.00
196.08
North Steer Basis
-4.00
0.25
4.25
3.25
7.25
Choice Boxes
348.70
351.29
2.59
323.48
25.22
Select Boxes
346.94
345.25
1.69
294.23
52.71
Spread
1.76
6.04
4.28
29.25
27.49
Carcass Weights
893
894
1
873
20
Slaughter
474,000
426,000
48,000
504,893
30,893
FC Index
350.22
349.32
0.90
261.77
88.45
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
N/A
$196.05
KS
$229.00
$196.08
NE
232
$229.67
$199.95
IA/MN
232
$229.22
$199.71
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 12/23/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
94,868
3,565
-148,297
5,024
327,500
423
Feeder Cattle
14,629
535
-8,354
285
69,417
669
Lean Hogs
75,325
10,489
-135,858
10,095
296,147
647
Corn
2,759
55,431
-233,878
40,917
1,548,477
5,462
Soybeans
110,403
37,375
-247,652
29,641
781,607
5,008
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle broke through the 100-day MA today. Resistance is at 240.675. Support is at the 100-day MA of 232.125 followed by the 20-day MA of 229.525.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle have now finished higher six days in a row. Resistance is at 356.875 and 357.425. Support is at 344.775 followed by the 20-day MA of 343.175.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs found support at the 20-day MA today. Support is at the 20-day MA of 84.000 and then 82.575. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 85.300 and then 85.975.
Corn Markets
March Corn futures broke through the 100-day MA today. Support is at 435 1/2 and then 434 1/2. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 439 and then the 20-day MA of 444.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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1/2/2026 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures started 2026 by breaking through overhead resistance and pushing to the highest levels since October 24. The February contract had tested the 100-day MA many times but could not trade through until today. After breaking through that line, the gap on the charts from October was filled and now leaves limited resistance areas between here and the contract highs. The cash market will need to show signs of support and improvement in order for the money flow to push the futures that high, but technically, today opened up the top-side in the market. Cash cattle this week has been quiet and very slow. There have been cattle traded today at 232 in the North, while the South has yet to trade with the packers bidding 232. Today’s 232 cash price and the February futures finishing 4.400 higher has created the worst basis in recent history, and possibly in the last two years. Basis has been abnormally good since the beginning of 2024, but the last three months has seen basis levels return to more historical averages or even a bit below that. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice quoted $1.25 higher at $348.70 and select up $4.56 to $346.94. The choice/select spread has now moved to new lows at $1.76 as the choice cutout has drifted lower than many expectations. The better grading cattle that were mentioned last week can partially be to blame, but it sure seems there are some difficulties taking place in selling the higher priced cuts.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures were the leaders of the cattle complex today and finished the day sharply higher across the board. The Feeder Cattle charts have looked significantly better than the Live Cattle charts for some time now and the start of a new year brought new fund money into the complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index dipped below the $350 level earlier this week on very limited amounts of volume. Today, the index was quoted $1.78 higher at $350.22. The start of 2026 will bring big runs of cattle at the sale barns, and big demand will definitely push the index to new highs for the recent move. As of today’s close, the January futures are at a $5.88 premium to the CME Feeder Cattle index. Open interest has slowly increased within the complex and before today, was near 70,000 contracts again. After today, and what looked to be significant fund buying, open interest should be back to multi-month highs.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished lower through the June contract today, while the far out deferreds finished slightly higher and remain near contract highs. Support remains in the deferred contracts as traders question whether the large supplies of hogs the USDA is showing will truly show up this summer. The managed money has been buying the Lean Hog complex the past three weeks and has now added nearly 30,000 contracts of long positions in that time according to the latest CFTC data through December 23. The USDA released retail price data for the first time since the government shutdown and it showed a relatively flat pork price compared to a year ago but a record spread between pork and beef. This cannot hurt pork demand especially at the meat counter where consumers are facing record beef prices. Pork demand has remained strong both domestically and via export for all of 2025 as Mexico has become a consistent customer for U.S. pork, something that will hopefully hold into 2026.
Corn: Corn futures spent the majority of the day in negative territory and have now finished lower five days in a row after posting new highs for the month of December last Friday. After posting that new high, the charts looked much better and opened up top-side to the highs from the middle of November. Now, futures are near the lows of the range going back to the middle of October, an area that has held the market twice. The latest CFTC data as of December 23, shows the managed money long nearly 3,000 contracts, the first net long position since May 2025. The USDA will release their next WASDE and Crop Production Report on January 12, giving an update to the 2025 production, along with new demand numbers for export, feed, and ethanol usage.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
January 12- WASDE Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 12/23/2025
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle broke through the 100-day MA today. Resistance is at 240.675. Support is at the 100-day MA of 232.125 followed by the 20-day MA of 229.525.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle have now finished higher six days in a row. Resistance is at 356.875 and 357.425. Support is at 344.775 followed by the 20-day MA of 343.175.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs found support at the 20-day MA today. Support is at the 20-day MA of 84.000 and then 82.575. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 85.300 and then 85.975.
Corn Markets
March Corn futures broke through the 100-day MA today. Support is at 435 1/2 and then 434 1/2. Resistance is at the 100-day MA of 439 and then the 20-day MA of 444.