Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished lower three days this week and finish the week with a net loss. The cash market and boxed beef markets continue to disappoint, and have now created headwinds for the complex to push to new highs. Cash this week was steady with a week ago as the North traded at 232 while the South is still holding out for higher money with bids of 232 currently. Boxed beef will show a gain for the week but both choice and select were quoted lower this morning. Choice was $1.55 lower at $355.24 and select was $0.62 lower at $351.44. Beef demand has come into question over the past few weeks as boxed beef fails to move higher and the choice/select spread continues to trade near record lows. Feedlots continue to fight the poor basis and the cash market that has become stagnant causing cattle to get backed up and add weight to the market. Tyson’s plant in Lexington, NE will stop killing next week and officially remove shackle space from the industry. Many of those cattle are already being shuffled to other plants but the total slaughter in the upcoming weeks will be interesting to watch to see if there is any disruption.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures pushed to new highs for the move this week as the cash market continues to beat expectations. The CME Feeder Cattle index is currently at $367.90 which is $17.68 higher than a week ago and is at the highest level since October 20. The all-time record high is $376.51, set on October 17. Almost all classes of cattle are setting new records across the nation as feedlots are anxious to get inventory. Almost all sale barns are reporting new records, taking out the records from October, on all cattle lighter than 800 pounds. The heavier Feeder Cattle are approaching new records but have yet to break the previous prices set. The futures continue to trade at a discount to the current index as many traders are hesitant to believe that the cash Feeder Cattle can continue to sell at their levels. The January contract will expire on January 29 and is currently at a $7.17 discount to the Feeder Cattle index.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures continue to be supported in the deferred contracts while the nearby contracts have found more pressure to work higher. Yesterday, all contracts with the exception of the February contract traded to new contract highs with very large volume within the complex. Open interest increased 4,000 contracts yesterday indicating that yesterday’s move was due to fund buying. As of Tuesday, the managed money was long 81,858 contracts. 2025 was a good year for profitability within the hog industry and with the current futures levels in the deferred contracts, profitability looks to be better in 2026. Tighter supplies into the middle of the year and the worry of health issues going forward has continued to support the deferred contracts. The pork cutout was quoted $1.50 lower at $90.79 and down to the lowest level since November 20 when the index was quoted at $90.76 after a $3 drop for one day. Prior to that, the index has not been below $91 since April 9. Demand has been very good for pork through exports and domestic consumption, and the pork cutout being supported is a reflection of that.
Corn: Corn futures finished the week slightly higher ahead of next Monday’s WASDE report. The USDA will release a new balance sheet at 11a.m. on Monday, showing new supply and demand numbers for the grain markets. Average estimates ahead of the report are showing a decrease of 2 bushel per acre Corn yield for the 2025 growing season, which would decrease production roughly 2 million bushels. With the current pace of exports out of the U.S., there will most likely be demand added as well. The estimate for the U.S. carryout is 1.972 billion bushels, which if true, would bring the carryout under 2 billion bushels for the current marketing year for the first time since May 2025. Weekly Corn exports released yesterday showed a week of poor sales surrounding the holidays, over 52 million bushels below the average volume the past few months. Currently, the U.S. is over 20% ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA goal and now, the U.S. has the cheapest Corn in the world, nearly $0.50 cheaper per bushel than South America.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Mar
445.75
0.25
CHI Wheat
Mar
517.25
0.75
KC Wheat
Mar
530.25
0.00
Soybeans
Mar
1062.50
1.25
Soy Oil
Jan
49.26
0.23
Soy Meal
Mar
303.70
0.10
Live Cattle
Feb
233.725
1.550
Feeder Cattle
Jan
360.725
1.750
Lean Hogs
Feb
85.300
0.575
Crude Oil
Feb
59.01
1.25
Ch Cutout
355.24
1.55
Sel Cutout
351.44
0.62
Feeder Index
367.90
0.17
Pork Cutout
90.79
1.50
Dollar Index
99.133
0.1990
DOW
49,508
242
National Corn Basis
-36.34
0.42
National Bean Basis
-71.02
0.08
Dates to Remember
January 12- WASDE Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
85.300
84.100
1.200
81.775
3.525
National Cash
69.37
70.19
0.82
78.85
9.48
Index
80.98
82.26
1.28
80.43
0.55
Cutout
90.79
93.74
2.95
90.48
0.31
IA/SMN Cash
70.55
69.08
1.47
78.10
7.55
IA/SMN Weights
295.50
294.20
1.30
293.20
2.30
Slaughter
2,683,000
2,228,000
455,000
2,533,809
149,191
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
232
232.14
Steady
203.08
28.92
South Cash
231.15
200.80
North Steer Basis
-3.00
-4.00
1.00
5.52
8.52
Choice Boxes
355.24
348.70
6.54
330.78
24.46
Select Boxes
351.44
346.94
4.50
308.35
43.09
Spread
3.80
1.76
2.04
22.43
18.63
Carcass Weights
894
893
1
874
20
Slaughter
553,000
474,000
79,000
591,422
38,422
FC Index
367.90
350.22
17.68
275.00
92.90
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
N/A
$200.10
KS
$231.15
$200.80
NE
232.233
$232.05
$203.08
IA/MN
232
$231.35
$203.06
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/6/2026
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
94,761
1,786
-151,843
4,208
328,847
2,405
Feeder Cattle
16,838
1,543
-10,677
1,496
72,503
51
Lean Hogs
81,858
2,937
-143,012
6,253
304,552
3,520
Corn
-16,426
7,158
-236,795
13,447
1,534,206
2,656
Soybeans
57,717
26,845
-211,889
17,372
791,140
4,628
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle posted the same high the first two days of the week and could not break that level throughout the week. Resistance is at that high of 237.450 and then 240.675. Support is at this week’s low of 233.125 and then the 20-day MA of 231.675.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle posted a new high for the move today before finishing lower. Resistance is at 362.750 and then 363.800. Support is at 358.200 and then 356.100.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs traded to new highs for the move this week. Resistance is at 86.500 and then 86.700. Support is at the 20-day MA of 84.850 and then 83.925.
Corn Markets
March Corn has traded back to the middle of its range. Support is at 443 3/4 which is this week’s low and the 20-day MA. Resistance is at 448 and then 453.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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1/9/2026 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished lower three days this week and finish the week with a net loss. The cash market and boxed beef markets continue to disappoint, and have now created headwinds for the complex to push to new highs. Cash this week was steady with a week ago as the North traded at 232 while the South is still holding out for higher money with bids of 232 currently. Boxed beef will show a gain for the week but both choice and select were quoted lower this morning. Choice was $1.55 lower at $355.24 and select was $0.62 lower at $351.44. Beef demand has come into question over the past few weeks as boxed beef fails to move higher and the choice/select spread continues to trade near record lows. Feedlots continue to fight the poor basis and the cash market that has become stagnant causing cattle to get backed up and add weight to the market. Tyson’s plant in Lexington, NE will stop killing next week and officially remove shackle space from the industry. Many of those cattle are already being shuffled to other plants but the total slaughter in the upcoming weeks will be interesting to watch to see if there is any disruption.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures pushed to new highs for the move this week as the cash market continues to beat expectations. The CME Feeder Cattle index is currently at $367.90 which is $17.68 higher than a week ago and is at the highest level since October 20. The all-time record high is $376.51, set on October 17. Almost all classes of cattle are setting new records across the nation as feedlots are anxious to get inventory. Almost all sale barns are reporting new records, taking out the records from October, on all cattle lighter than 800 pounds. The heavier Feeder Cattle are approaching new records but have yet to break the previous prices set. The futures continue to trade at a discount to the current index as many traders are hesitant to believe that the cash Feeder Cattle can continue to sell at their levels. The January contract will expire on January 29 and is currently at a $7.17 discount to the Feeder Cattle index.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures continue to be supported in the deferred contracts while the nearby contracts have found more pressure to work higher. Yesterday, all contracts with the exception of the February contract traded to new contract highs with very large volume within the complex. Open interest increased 4,000 contracts yesterday indicating that yesterday’s move was due to fund buying. As of Tuesday, the managed money was long 81,858 contracts. 2025 was a good year for profitability within the hog industry and with the current futures levels in the deferred contracts, profitability looks to be better in 2026. Tighter supplies into the middle of the year and the worry of health issues going forward has continued to support the deferred contracts. The pork cutout was quoted $1.50 lower at $90.79 and down to the lowest level since November 20 when the index was quoted at $90.76 after a $3 drop for one day. Prior to that, the index has not been below $91 since April 9. Demand has been very good for pork through exports and domestic consumption, and the pork cutout being supported is a reflection of that.
Corn: Corn futures finished the week slightly higher ahead of next Monday’s WASDE report. The USDA will release a new balance sheet at 11a.m. on Monday, showing new supply and demand numbers for the grain markets. Average estimates ahead of the report are showing a decrease of 2 bushel per acre Corn yield for the 2025 growing season, which would decrease production roughly 2 million bushels. With the current pace of exports out of the U.S., there will most likely be demand added as well. The estimate for the U.S. carryout is 1.972 billion bushels, which if true, would bring the carryout under 2 billion bushels for the current marketing year for the first time since May 2025. Weekly Corn exports released yesterday showed a week of poor sales surrounding the holidays, over 52 million bushels below the average volume the past few months. Currently, the U.S. is over 20% ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA goal and now, the U.S. has the cheapest Corn in the world, nearly $0.50 cheaper per bushel than South America.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
January 12- WASDE Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/6/2026
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle posted the same high the first two days of the week and could not break that level throughout the week. Resistance is at that high of 237.450 and then 240.675. Support is at this week’s low of 233.125 and then the 20-day MA of 231.675.
Feeder Cattle Markets
January Feeder Cattle posted a new high for the move today before finishing lower. Resistance is at 362.750 and then 363.800. Support is at 358.200 and then 356.100.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs traded to new highs for the move this week. Resistance is at 86.500 and then 86.700. Support is at the 20-day MA of 84.850 and then 83.925.
Corn Markets
March Corn has traded back to the middle of its range. Support is at 443 3/4 which is this week’s low and the 20-day MA. Resistance is at 448 and then 453.