Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to new highs today following the Feeder Cattle complex. There has been no cash cattle trade to this point of the week but with the stronger futures market, the feedlots will be asking for higher money. Last week’s averages in the North were near 232 while Kansas averaged 232.52 and Texas was not reportable. Boxed beef has been higher to start the week but the choice/select spread has gone inverted for the first time since February of 2022. This morning, choice was $0.91 higher to $358.02 and select was up $0.99 at $359.04. Since last Tuesday, choice has gained $4.83 and select has added $8.23. Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money as buyers of 1,786 contracts, bringing their total long position to 94,761. Their all-time record long position is 156,909 contracts which was set in 2025. If there is a bullish fundamental surprise that enters the Live Cattle complex there is plenty of room for the funds to be buyers of the complex. Currently, the fundamentals of the complex are not overly friendly with the cash markets that are at a discount to the futures, record carcass weights, and a lower Corn market that will continue to make carcasses larger and increase production.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded sharply higher today after yesterday’s big drop in Corn prices. Throughout the day on Monday, the Feeder Cattle complex failed to find support from lower feed prices but in the last 20 minutes of trade, most contracts posted new highs for the day. Today, the futures opened higher and never looked back, posting new daily highs in the final minutes. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to work higher but at a much slower pace than at the start of the year. Now that Corn is nearing its contract low, the market is pricing in higher Feeder Cattle prices to come across the complex. A few weeks back, we mentioned the Feeder Cattle index and its values at the end of 2024 and the start of 2025. From December 23, 2024 until the end of that year the index lost $9.03 and then gained $24.58 in the first ten days of 2025. From December 23, 2025 to the end of the year the index lost $5.04 and since the beginning of the year it has gained $20.68. The end of the year is always affected by light volume in sale barns, and the past two years the increased price of the futures along with big runs of Feeder Cattle at the new year has brought big buyer interest and has increased the price of cash Feeder Cattle.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded slightly higher in the nearby contracts today while the far out deferred contracts were slightly lower. After posting new highs for the move and some contracts posting new contract highs last week, the market has found itself waiting for some news to propel the futures in either direction. The February contract did break lower yesterday and pushed to the lowest levels since the middle of December, but recovered by the end of the day and that followed into today. Yesterday’s WASDE Report took into account the larger supplies of pigs that were reported in last month’s Hogs and Pigs Report. Production for 2026 was increased 740 million pounds which is a 2.3% increase from last year. The largest portion of the increased production is expected in the third quarter where they estimate a 4.3% increase compared to 2025.
Corn: Corn futures fell under heavy pressure yesterday after the USDA’s WASDE Report. Trade expectations ahead of the report were looking for a decrease of two bushels per acre Corn yield and in turn, a decrease in overall production. The USDA showed an increase of a half a bushel an acre along with an increase of 1.3 million harvested acres. Both of these numbers combined added 269 million bushels to total production for 2025. On the demand side of the equation, there was no increase to export demand as many expected. Currently, the U.S. is running well above the pace needed to meet the current USDA goal, but the only change that took place was an increase to feed demand of 100 million bushels. Feed and residual demand is now 750 million bushels larger than 2025. Corn ending stocks are now estimated at 2.227 billion bushels and well above the pre-report estimate of 1.972 billion bushels. The nearby Corn contract lost nearly 25 cents yesterday and took out many technical resistance points along the way. Today’s lower follow-through pushed many contracts within 10 cents of the contract lows set in August, an area that traders will look to hold the Corn complex going forward. The silver lining in all of this is U.S. export demand has been very strong and even lower prices will help to keep exports moving.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Mar
419.75
1.75
CHI Wheat
Mar
510.50
0.75
KC Wheat
Mar
519.50
7.25
Soybeans
Mar
1038.75
10.25
Soy Oil
Jan
50.78
0.96
Soy Meal
Mar
291.60
6.70
Live Cattle
Feb
237.250
2.000
Feeder Cattle
Jan
366.275
4.225
Lean Hogs
Feb
84.625
0.200
Crude Oil
Feb
61.13
1.63
Ch Cutout
358.02
0.91
Sel Cutout
359.04
0.99
Feeder Index
369.12
0.56
Pork Cutout
93.10
0.78
Dollar Index
99.137
0.2750
DOW
49,180
409
National Corn Basis
-36.37
0.54
National Bean Basis
-69.92
0.86
Dates to Remember
January 23- Cattle on Feed Report
January 29- January Feeder Cattle Expiration
January 30- Cattle Inventory Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
84.625
85.675
1.050
83.175
1.450
National Cash
68.08
66.36
1.72
79.14
11.06
Index
80.60
81.62
1.02
80.99
0.39
Cutout
93.10
93.84
0.74
90.20
2.90
IA/SMN Cash
70.55
69.08
1.47
79.20
8.65
IA/SMN Weights
295.50
294.20
1.30
293.20
2.30
Slaughter
2,683,000
2,228,000
455,000
2,533,809
149,191
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
232.07
203.76
South Cash
232.52
200.88
North Steer Basis
-3.00
5.52
Choice Boxes
358.02
353.19
4.83
333.35
24.67
Select Boxes
359.04
350.81
8.23
317.57
41.47
Spread
-1.02
2.38
3.40
15.78
16.80
Carcass Weights
894
893
1
874
20
Slaughter
553,000
474,000
79,000
591,422
38,422
FC Index
369.12
362.17
6.95
277.30
91.82
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
N/A
$201.00
KS
$232.52
$200.88
NE
$232.07
$203.76
IA/MN
$231.63
$204.66
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/6/2026
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
94,761
1,786
-151,843
4,208
322,758
2,024
Feeder Cattle
16,838
1,543
-10,677
1,496
43,325
615
Lean Hogs
81,858
2,937
-143,012
6,253
300,221
1,343
Corn
-16,426
7,158
-236,795
13,447
1,576,187
44,360
Soybeans
57,717
26,845
-211,889
17,372
806,003
5,243
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle took out last week’s high. Resistance is at today’s high of 237.550 and then 240.375. Support is at 233.125 followed by the 20-day MA of 232.250.
Feeder Cattle Markets
March Feeder Cattle posted new highs for the move today. Resistance is at 368.725 and then 370.675. Support is at 353.350 followed by the 20-day MA of 346.350.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs fell back below the 20-day MA yesterday. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 84.850 and then 86.500. Support is at 83.925 and then 83.775.
Corn Markets
March Corn futures finished well off of their lows today but have had significant losses this week. Support is at today’s low of 417 1/4 and then the contract low of 410. Resistance is at 425 1/2 and then 434 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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1/13/2026 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to new highs today following the Feeder Cattle complex. There has been no cash cattle trade to this point of the week but with the stronger futures market, the feedlots will be asking for higher money. Last week’s averages in the North were near 232 while Kansas averaged 232.52 and Texas was not reportable. Boxed beef has been higher to start the week but the choice/select spread has gone inverted for the first time since February of 2022. This morning, choice was $0.91 higher to $358.02 and select was up $0.99 at $359.04. Since last Tuesday, choice has gained $4.83 and select has added $8.23. Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money as buyers of 1,786 contracts, bringing their total long position to 94,761. Their all-time record long position is 156,909 contracts which was set in 2025. If there is a bullish fundamental surprise that enters the Live Cattle complex there is plenty of room for the funds to be buyers of the complex. Currently, the fundamentals of the complex are not overly friendly with the cash markets that are at a discount to the futures, record carcass weights, and a lower Corn market that will continue to make carcasses larger and increase production.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded sharply higher today after yesterday’s big drop in Corn prices. Throughout the day on Monday, the Feeder Cattle complex failed to find support from lower feed prices but in the last 20 minutes of trade, most contracts posted new highs for the day. Today, the futures opened higher and never looked back, posting new daily highs in the final minutes. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to work higher but at a much slower pace than at the start of the year. Now that Corn is nearing its contract low, the market is pricing in higher Feeder Cattle prices to come across the complex. A few weeks back, we mentioned the Feeder Cattle index and its values at the end of 2024 and the start of 2025. From December 23, 2024 until the end of that year the index lost $9.03 and then gained $24.58 in the first ten days of 2025. From December 23, 2025 to the end of the year the index lost $5.04 and since the beginning of the year it has gained $20.68. The end of the year is always affected by light volume in sale barns, and the past two years the increased price of the futures along with big runs of Feeder Cattle at the new year has brought big buyer interest and has increased the price of cash Feeder Cattle.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded slightly higher in the nearby contracts today while the far out deferred contracts were slightly lower. After posting new highs for the move and some contracts posting new contract highs last week, the market has found itself waiting for some news to propel the futures in either direction. The February contract did break lower yesterday and pushed to the lowest levels since the middle of December, but recovered by the end of the day and that followed into today. Yesterday’s WASDE Report took into account the larger supplies of pigs that were reported in last month’s Hogs and Pigs Report. Production for 2026 was increased 740 million pounds which is a 2.3% increase from last year. The largest portion of the increased production is expected in the third quarter where they estimate a 4.3% increase compared to 2025.
Corn: Corn futures fell under heavy pressure yesterday after the USDA’s WASDE Report. Trade expectations ahead of the report were looking for a decrease of two bushels per acre Corn yield and in turn, a decrease in overall production. The USDA showed an increase of a half a bushel an acre along with an increase of 1.3 million harvested acres. Both of these numbers combined added 269 million bushels to total production for 2025. On the demand side of the equation, there was no increase to export demand as many expected. Currently, the U.S. is running well above the pace needed to meet the current USDA goal, but the only change that took place was an increase to feed demand of 100 million bushels. Feed and residual demand is now 750 million bushels larger than 2025. Corn ending stocks are now estimated at 2.227 billion bushels and well above the pre-report estimate of 1.972 billion bushels. The nearby Corn contract lost nearly 25 cents yesterday and took out many technical resistance points along the way. Today’s lower follow-through pushed many contracts within 10 cents of the contract lows set in August, an area that traders will look to hold the Corn complex going forward. The silver lining in all of this is U.S. export demand has been very strong and even lower prices will help to keep exports moving.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
January 23- Cattle on Feed Report
January 29- January Feeder Cattle Expiration
January 30- Cattle Inventory Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/6/2026
Live Cattle Markets
February Live Cattle took out last week’s high. Resistance is at today’s high of 237.550 and then 240.375. Support is at 233.125 followed by the 20-day MA of 232.250.
Feeder Cattle Markets
March Feeder Cattle posted new highs for the move today. Resistance is at 368.725 and then 370.675. Support is at 353.350 followed by the 20-day MA of 346.350.
Lean Hogs Markets
February Lean Hogs fell back below the 20-day MA yesterday. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 84.850 and then 86.500. Support is at 83.925 and then 83.775.
Corn Markets
March Corn futures finished well off of their lows today but have had significant losses this week. Support is at today’s low of 417 1/4 and then the contract low of 410. Resistance is at 425 1/2 and then 434 1/2.