1/13/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to new highs today following the Feeder Cattle complex. There has been no cash cattle trade to this point of the week but with the stronger futures market, the feedlots will be asking for higher money. Last week’s averages in the North were near 232 while Kansas averaged 232.52 and Texas was not reportable. Boxed beef has been higher to start the week but the choice/select spread has gone inverted for the first time since February of 2022. This morning, choice was $0.91 higher to $358.02 and select was up $0.99 at $359.04. Since last Tuesday, choice has gained $4.83 and select has added $8.23. Friday’s CFTC report showed the managed money as buyers of 1,786 contracts, bringing their total long position to 94,761. Their all-time record long position is 156,909 contracts which was set in 2025. If there is a bullish fundamental surprise that enters the Live Cattle complex there is plenty of room for the funds to be buyers of the complex. Currently, the fundamentals of the complex are not overly friendly with the cash markets that are at a discount to the futures, record carcass weights, and a lower Corn market that will continue to make carcasses larger and increase production.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded sharply higher today after yesterday’s big drop in Corn prices. Throughout the day on Monday, the Feeder Cattle complex failed to find support from lower feed prices but in the last 20 minutes of trade, most contracts posted new highs for the day. Today, the futures opened higher and never looked back, posting new daily highs in the final minutes. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to work higher but at a much slower pace than at the start of the year. Now that Corn is nearing its contract low, the market is pricing in higher Feeder Cattle prices to come across the complex. A few weeks back, we mentioned the Feeder Cattle index and its values at the end of 2024 and the start of 2025. From December 23, 2024 until the end of that year the index lost $9.03 and then gained $24.58 in the first ten days of 2025. From December 23, 2025 to the end of the year the index lost $5.04 and since the beginning of the year it has gained $20.68. The end of the year is always affected by light volume in sale barns, and the past two years the increased price of the futures along with big runs of Feeder Cattle at the new year has brought big buyer interest and has increased the price of cash Feeder Cattle.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded slightly higher in the nearby contracts today while the far out deferred contracts were slightly lower. After posting new highs for the move and some contracts posting new contract highs last week, the market has found itself waiting for some news to propel the futures in either direction. The February contract did break lower yesterday and pushed to the lowest levels since the middle of December, but recovered by the end of the day and that followed into today. Yesterday’s WASDE Report took into account the larger supplies of pigs that were reported in last month’s Hogs and Pigs Report. Production for 2026 was increased 740 million pounds which is a 2.3% increase from last year. The largest portion of the increased production is expected in the third quarter where they estimate a 4.3% increase compared to 2025.

Corn: Corn futures fell under heavy pressure yesterday after the USDA’s WASDE Report. Trade expectations ahead of the report were looking for a decrease of two bushels per acre Corn yield and in turn, a decrease in overall production. The USDA showed an increase of a half a bushel an acre along with an increase of 1.3 million harvested acres. Both of these numbers combined added 269 million bushels to total production for 2025. On the demand side of the equation, there was no increase to export demand as many expected. Currently, the U.S. is running well above the pace needed to meet the current USDA goal, but the only change that took place was an increase to feed demand of 100 million bushels. Feed and residual demand is now 750 million bushels larger than 2025. Corn ending stocks are now estimated at 2.227 billion bushels and well above the pre-report estimate of 1.972 billion bushels. The nearby Corn contract lost nearly 25 cents yesterday and took out many technical resistance points along the way. Today’s lower follow-through pushed many contracts within 10 cents of the contract lows set in August, an area that traders will look to hold the Corn complex going forward. The silver lining in all of this is U.S. export demand has been very strong and even lower prices will help to keep exports moving.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn Mar 419.75 1.75
CHI Wheat Mar 510.50 0.75
KC Wheat Mar 519.50 7.25
Soybeans Mar 1038.75 10.25
Soy Oil Jan 50.78 0.96
Soy Meal Mar 291.60 6.70
Live Cattle Feb 237.250 2.000
Feeder Cattle Jan 366.275 4.225
Lean Hogs Feb 84.625 0.200
Crude Oil Feb 61.13 1.63
Ch Cutout 358.02 0.91
Sel Cutout 359.04 0.99
Feeder Index 369.12 0.56
Pork Cutout 93.10 0.78
Dollar Index 99.137 0.2750
DOW 49,180 409
National Corn Basis -36.37 0.54
National Bean Basis -69.92 0.86

Dates to Remember

January 23- Cattle on Feed Report

January 29- January Feeder Cattle Expiration

January 30- Cattle Inventory Report

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 84.625 85.675 1.050 83.175 1.450
National Cash 68.08 66.36 1.72 79.14 11.06
Index 80.60 81.62 1.02 80.99 0.39
Cutout 93.10 93.84 0.74 90.20 2.90
IA/SMN Cash 70.55 69.08 1.47 79.20 8.65
IA/SMN Weights 295.50 294.20 1.30 293.20 2.30
Slaughter 2,683,000 2,228,000 455,000 2,533,809 149,191

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 232.07 203.76
South Cash 232.52 200.88
North Steer Basis -3.00 5.52
Choice Boxes 358.02 353.19 4.83 333.35 24.67
Select Boxes 359.04 350.81 8.23 317.57 41.47
Spread -1.02 2.38 3.40 15.78 16.80
Carcass Weights 894 893 1 874 20
Slaughter 553,000 474,000 79,000 591,422 38,422
FC Index 369.12 362.17 6.95 277.30 91.82

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM N/A $201.00
KS $232.52 $200.88
NE $232.07 $203.76
IA/MN $231.63 $204.66

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 1/6/2026
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 94,761 1,786 -151,843 4,208 322,758 2,024
Feeder Cattle 16,838 1,543 -10,677 1,496 43,325 615
Lean Hogs 81,858 2,937 -143,012 6,253 300,221 1,343
Corn -16,426 7,158 -236,795 13,447 1,576,187 44,360
Soybeans 57,717 26,845 -211,889 17,372 806,003 5,243

Live Cattle Markets

February Live Cattle took out last week’s high. Resistance is at today’s high of 237.550 and then 240.375. Support is at 233.125 followed by the 20-day MA of 232.250.

Feeder Cattle Markets

March Feeder Cattle posted new highs for the move today. Resistance is at 368.725 and then 370.675. Support is at 353.350 followed by the 20-day MA of 346.350.

Lean Hogs Markets

February Lean Hogs fell back below the 20-day MA yesterday. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 84.850 and then 86.500. Support is at 83.925 and then 83.775.

Corn Markets

March Corn futures finished well off of their lows today but have had significant losses this week. Support is at today’s low of 417 1/4 and then the contract low of 410. Resistance is at 425 1/2 and then 434 1/2.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.  Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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