1/23/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the day with big gains following a better than expected cash market this week. There was limited trade in the North yesterday at 232 and that gave way to 234 trade today. The South traded cattle at 235 today which is $2 higher than a week ago. Today’s jump in cash was lead by the packers being a little bit shorter bought than many thought and with the colder weather that has set in for most of cattle-feeding country, many feedlots were not willing to sell cattle at even money. Boxed beef found slight support this week and both choice and select will finish higher than a week ago. Choice was quoted at $368.70 this morning and is $6.79 higher than a week ago. Select is up $1.00 on the week and will finish at $361.30. The choice/select spread is now at $7.40 and improved $5.79 this week. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed cattle on feed down 3% compared to a year ago and marketing up 2%. Both categories were right in line with the pre-report estimates.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures traded down to support levels this morning before reversing course and finishing the day higher. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to be the driver of the complex while traders continue to watch the price of Corn. The CME Feeder Cattle index has drifted lower for the majority of the week following last Friday’s sharply lower futures market. Currently, the index is at $363.48 which is $6.67 lower on the week and $1.32 below the January futures contract that will expire on Thursday. Today’s Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of December down 5% compared to December 2024 and near the upper end of the pre-report estimates. For the first time in almost a year, Texas placed more cattle compared to a year ago at 110%. This is due to the initial closure of the Mexican border taking place at the end of November 2024 and Texas not being able to place those cattle into their feed yards last December. Placements in the state of South Dakota were down 18%, Iowa was down 10%, Kansas down 7%, and Nebraska was 8% lower.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures posted new contract highs on Thursday in all months except the nearby February contract. Optimism surrounding tight numbers of hogs into the summer along with continued disease pressure has continued to build a premium into the deferred contracts. Iowa/Southern Minnesota hog weights were 3.9 pounds per head lighter than the week prior and now just 1.1 pounds bigger than a year ago. This is the second biggest weekly drop in recent history and the lighter carcasses have pushed packers to search for pigs. This week’s kill was 139,000 head smaller than a week ago mainly due to the extreme cold across the country. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of 14,794 contracts, increasing their net long position to 97,418 contracts. Open interest has increased to over 342,000 contracts and is at the highest levels since last October. This is mainly due to increased spec buying from the funds and increased hedging from hog producers.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week higher following a great week of exports. Total exports for the week far exceeded the expectations ahead of the report and was the highest weekly total of the current crop year. The U.S. is now 8% ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA export goal. The holidays were slow for U.S. export demand but have picked up significantly in recent weeks. The drop in the futures market has helped export demand beyond the already strong demand prior to the fall in prices. The United States remains as the cheapest source for Corn in the world. Ethanol production for last week was down 77,000 barrels per day from the prior week but well above the same week a year ago and the three-year average.