2/6/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures quickly traded to limit lower on Thursday morning but bounced back off that level immediately after. News of a strike by workers at the JBS Greely plant sent the funds into liquidation mode. The strike is still a few weeks away and it sounds like both sides are back to the negotiating table in an attempt to resolve things before a strike does take place. After the market closed on Thursday, the packers began bidding 240 in all regions and the North began to trade cattle while the South held out for more money. That excited the futures market to begin today and the futures traded sharply higher all day until the last hour when a large portion of the gains were erased. Cash in the North has traded as high at 245 this afternoon and the South also traded at 245 today. President Trump said he is planning to sign an executive order this afternoon that would quadruple beef imports from Argentina. At the surface, this looks like it would be a major increase to the U.S. beef supply, but Argentina is not a large supplier of beef. Final numbers from 2024 show Argentina as the eighth largest country that the U.S. imports beef from and quadrupling that total would move them to number six. Boxed beef was higher this morning as choice was quoted at $369.91, up $2.66 and select was $3.48 higher to $363.85 on very small load counts. The packers continue to slow down the chain speeds in an attempt to string out the amount of market-ready cattle and support the boxed beef prices. This week’s estimated slaughter is 536,000 head which is 8,000 head larger than last week but over 46,000 head smaller than the same week a year ago.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the week with big weekly gains but did fall from their weekly highs. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues its move higher and came within $1.35 of its all-time record high of $376.51 from October 16. After Thursday’s sales, the index is quoted at $374.47 which was $0.69 lower on the day but $3.78 higher than a week ago. The nearby March contract traded back into the gap that was left in October but could not fully fill the gap before the futures slipped lower. Technical traders will continue to eye those gaps as an area of interest on the charts, especially if the cash fundamentals continue to stay strong. Open interest decreased on Thursday on what looked to be fund liquidation, and is now back to nearly 77,000 contracts after briefly trading above 80,000 last week. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 194 contracts, bringing their net long position to 16,435 contracts as of Tuesday.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures continue to see fund buying flood into the complex as worries of disease and hog supplies continue to drive the market higher. Open interest within the complex has skyrocketed the past two weeks and is now above 380,000 contracts, 80,000 more than just two weeks ago. The market is now approaching all-time record large open interest and is outpacing the Live Cattle complex which rarely happens. According to today’s CFTC Report, the managed money is long 128,857 contracts. This is a 15,051 contract increase on the week and only 17,431 contracts short of their all-time record length. The pork cutout continues to find support in the low $90.00 area. Yesterday, the cutout was quoted $2.27 higher to $95.00. Export sales were down this week after a very good week last week. After the first five weeks of the year, U.S. pork exports are 15% larger than the same time a year ago and the highest in the last five years.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week lower after posting new highs for the move this morning. Wednesday, President Trump announced that he had a positive phone call with the President of China and he stated that China would consider buying more U.S. Soybeans. This sent the Soybean market sharply higher and pushed the nearby contract to a weekly gain of over $0.50. Corn futures have been reluctant to go higher with the Soybean market and finished the week with a small two cent gain. Most traders remain hesitant as China has yet to purchase or take delivery of their promise, but premium was placed back into the market this week. This could be beneficial to the corn market in the long-term as the thought of China returning back to the U.S. market for Soybeans in the future will help increase the price of U.S. Soybeans, and in turn give farmers more optimism and profitability to plant more acres to Soybeans instead of Corn. At the end of the day, Corn demand has never been stronger but the U.S. has a large amount of supply. Exports are currently estimated at record large and up to this point of the year, the U.S. is ahead of the pace needed to meet the export goal by 350 million bushels. Ethanol demand has been record large with the exception of a few weeks where cold weather slowed down the plants, and feed demand is also record large. The market is looking for a way to lower the carryout and right now, the easiest way to do that is with less Corn production in 2026.