2/13/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week with sizable weekly gains but traded in a much tighter range than last week. Wednesday, the Live Cattle complex led the entire cattle complex higher on what looked to be fund buying in anticipation of a higher cash market. A portion of those gains were erased on Thursday as cash trade was slow to develop. Cash trade in the South has yet to take place on a widespread basis but there have been a few cattle traded at 246. Most of the feedlots are priced at 248 and have yet to move their expectations lower. The North has traded cattle from 243-245 this afternoon. This is fully steady to a dollar higher than the upper end of last week’s trade, but this week’s average will be much higher than last week. Boxed beef continues to trade sideways to lower as we have entered into a very difficult time of year for beef demand. This morning, choice was quoted at $364.49 which is down $5.52 on the week. Select is at $363.29 and has lost $0.56 this week. The choice/select spread has narrowed to $1.10 after finding some relief last week. Most of the talk around the industry right now seems to be kill cuts in the coming weeks as packers will be taking days off and trying to string out the inventory of fat cattle as well as increase the price of boxed beef.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures tested the 20-day MA most of this week but ended up finishing above that line. The CME Feeder Cattle index has become stagnant over the last week as it continues to hang near the all-time record high that was set last October. Currently, the index is at quoted at $373.91 which is down just $0.56 on the week. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to move higher but there have been higher volumes of cattle at sales this week compared to the prior two weeks due to the cold and snow that had hit the southern states. The managed money has been very quiet within the Feeder Cattle complex the past few weeks. Today’s CFTC Report showed the funds as sellers of 273 contracts, leaving their net long position well within historical levels. Traders continue to watch the bullish fundamentals and tight numbers that are ahead, but have yet to push the futures up to the current index level or to the highs from last fall. This has been a trend for some time now as most wait for the index to prove it can stay at these elevated levels through the expiation of the futures contracts.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished lower each day this week and extended their streak to seven days in a row. After the open interest within the complex climbed at a record pace for the first four weeks of 2026, open interest has fallen sharply over the past week. The decrease in open interest would indicate that the managed money has began liquidating their long position that had been built over the course of the past two months. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as buyers of 4,424 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday. This increased their net long position to 133,281 contracts, and at that time, not too far from the all-time record of 146,288 contracts. Next week’s report will show what happened in the final three days of this week. The cash fundamentals surrounding the Lean Hog complex have been relatively flat and the pork cutout remains in the mid $90 range as domestic demand remains strong and exports continue to run at good levels.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week higher after following the Soybean market most of the week. Tuesday’s WASDE Report had no surprises for the grain markets and was neutral to slightly friendly for the Corn market. In order for Corn to sustain a rally in the coming months there will need to be some sort of production scare that would ultimately lower the carryout below two billion bushels. Export sales for the week ending February 5 were released yesterday showing strong Corn sales and the third highest total in the last three months. Japan was the featured buyer this week but Mexico remains in the lead for yearly totals. Corn futures held the 20-day MA this week and that will remain as support under the market moving forward.