3/3/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have followed the stock market step for step to begin this week as the outside markets continue to fall under pressure following the attacks in Iran over the weekend. Both days this week, the futures opened sharply lower and then spent the remainder of the day working higher. The nearby contracts have faired better than the deferred contracts so far as the front months try to stay in line with the cash market. There has been limited cash trade to begin the week with packer bids of 235 this morning that caught no interest and a very small amount of trade at 237 today in Nebraska. Boxed beef was sharply higher this morning and has pushed to the highest levels of the year. Choice was quoted $6.60 higher at $387.94 and select was $1.53 higher at $379.74. Seasonal demand continues to improve which is helping boxed beef prices but the many weeks in a row of reduced kills is having more of an impact that anything. The last two weeks, total slaughter has been 516,000 head which is roughly 52,000 head less than a year ago and even smaller than the three year average. The war in Iran has no direct impact to the cattle market but does create uncertainty which the cattle markets do not like. With higher crude oil markets and lower equity markets, the fear is that consumers will be forced to pay more for gas along with less money available in investment accounts, and beef will be cut from the budget. Demand continues to be strong and is seen to be at 40-year highs regardless of the record prices at the meat counter.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have traded in volatile fashion both days this week but have fought off the negative outside factors so far. Yesterday’s low tested the 100-day MA in most of the contracts, a line that the Feeder Cattle have not traded near since the middle of December. The cash market continues to work lower as the lower futures have decreased the bids within sale barns. Today, the CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $2.23 lower to $369.59 through Monday’s sales, and is now $5.82 lower than a week ago. This is the first time the index has been quoted below $370.00 since January 29. Corn prices have stabilized and returned to near the yearly highs which is also helping to lower the price of cash feeders. Last week, the funds were buyers of 1,356 contracts, raising their long position to 18,162 contracts which is about half of their record position that was held last year. The managed money has been hesitant to build a sizable long position so far this year, but that did not keep the futures from nearing the contract highs set last October. If the fund sector of the market sees a reason to buy the cattle complex, there is plenty of room for them to do that and push prices higher.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the day mixed after testing contract highs in many of the deferred contracts this morning. The nearby contracts continue to be supported by the strength in the cutout market and the higher cash markets while the deferred contracts look for tighter supplies throughout the summer months. Yesterday, the pork cutout was quoted at $98.50 which was up $0.73 for the day and is the highest price in 2026. Pork demand continues to be supported by the high price of beef along with good exports. Slaughter last week was 23,000 head larger than the week before and 9,170 head less than the same week last year. Last week’s CFTC Report showed the funds as small buyers of the Lean Hog complex, raising their net long position to 116,983 contracts. Traders are now looking to the end of the month and the USDA Hogs and Pigs Report which will show current inventory numbers and what production looks like going forward.

Corn: Corn futures started the week higher but have failed to sustain any sort of direction throughout the first two days of the week. On the open Sunday night, the Corn market opened higher due to the attacks in Iran and the higher price of crude oil. That high held for the entire day yesterday and Corn futures finished the day lower. Today, the futures posted new highs for the week but ultimately traded lower before finishing the day slightly higher. The grain complex as a whole has not seen much of a move higher following this weekend’s attacks but it has helped hold premium into the markets. Export inspections that were released yesterday showed another good week of Corn shipments. Mexico, South Korea, and Japan continued to be at the top of the list as destinations for U.S. Corn. Corn shipments to date are 455 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA export goal. The USDA will update the balance sheet next Tuesday and the market will be looking for another increase in export demand. The Corn market will continue to monitor the war news the remainder of the week and keep an eye on crude oil futures.