3/17/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have started the week on a positive note and have been led by the nearby April contract that has gained $4.325 through the first two days. The week began sharply higher as the JBS strike had begun along with positive influences from the outside market. It feels like the market enjoyed the solidification that the strike in Greeley was actually taking place and the unknown was no longer looming over the market. The strike has helped increase the price of boxed beef and choice boxes have traded back above the $400 level for the first time since September. This morning choice was quoted $1.08 higher at $403.74 and select was up $4.49 to $399.00. The choice/select spread has narrowed to $4.74 after climbing back over $10.00 last week. Cash trade has been quiet to start the week but feedlots will certainly be asking higher this week as packers look to increase slaughter as their margins have improved. The futures have pushed their way to some technical resistance levels that will need to be taken out the next few days in order to open the door for higher prices and return to levels from the beginning of March.

Feeder Cattle: The Feeder Cattle index was quoted higher today after sixteen straight days being lower. After Monday’s sales, the index is at $358.31 which was up $1.26 on the day but $7.28 lower than a week ago. Feeder Cattle futures have enjoyed a lower Corn market thus far this week along with higher equity markets. The most active April contract has gained $11.700 through the first two days, and just like the Live Cattle complex, has traded back to technical resistance areas. The March contract has been trading at a big discount to the CME Feeder Cattle index for the past two months and after today’s trade, the March contract is now at a $1.49 premium to the index. All sales through next Thursday will be combined into the index and will determine the settlement for the contract. There is a Cattle on Feed Report on Friday at 2 p.m. Early estimates are for cattle on feed to be down 0.8%, placements to be down 1.0%, and marketing to be 7.7% less than a year ago.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures broke their five day losing streak today and finished the day slightly higher. Trade volume was very light yesterday as traders attempt to dissect the outside markets and what that means for the Lean Hog index. The cash fundamentals continue to work higher and are being led by the pork cutout. Yesterday, the pork cutout was quoted $0.25 higher at $100.44, and has stayed above the $100 level for three consecutive days. Export data for the month of January showed a decrease in pork shipments for the month compared to December, but still 2% larger than last January. Mexico accounted for 42% of the exports while Japan was the second leading country at 14% of the total. We are just over a week away from the USDA’s next Hogs and Pigs Report. Estimates are yet to be released but tighter numbers of hogs will be expected.

Corn: Corn futures traded sharply lower on Monday following the soybean market that finished the day limit lower. Today, Corn finished the day mixed as the old crop contracts were steady to slightly lower and the new crop contracts were a penny or two higher. The lack of support in the grain markets as a whole stemmed from comments from President Trump saying his meeting later this month with China may not take place. The managed money were huge buyers of the grain complex last week and the Corn market was the main commodity they were focused on. In Corn, the managed money were buyers of over 140,000 contracts for the week ending last Tuesday, the equivalent of over 700 million bushels. Export inspections that were released yesterday showed another good week of Corn shipments and were at the upper end of the estimated range and above the ten-week average. After yesterday’s movement in the grain markets, one has to wonder if planting intentions are again being changed for this growing season. Soybeans moved higher creating more of an incentive to plant soybeans over Corn, but after yesterday’s sharply lower move, those plans may be changing.