3/31/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have finished higher four days in a row and have gained nearly $10.000/cwt in that time. Many of the deferred contracts filled the gap that was left in October before the futures saw a $40.000/cwt sell off in just over a month’s time. This move higher started on virtually no news and has continued to work higher with no bullish news entering the market. The cash averages last week were steady with the week prior and boxed beef has fallen back below the $400 mark over the last week, along with the equity markets working lower. There has been no cash news up to this point in the week but expectations early in the week were for higher money, and with the nearby futures pushing above $243.000 today, asking prices continue to be moved higher. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice being quoted up $2.34 to $396.44 and select up $3.78 to $394.79. The choice/select spread is now at $1.65 after recovering from negative territory in the middle of last week. The cash market this week will need to be higher to support the move higher in the futures market as the funds will look for bullish fundamentals to hold these levels. A lot of the technical objectives that have been hanging over the market have been met. New buying and additional interest will need to enter the market to see new highs in the near future.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have added nearly $20.000/cwt over the past four days and have been the leader of the cattle complex. The CME Feeder Cattle index has gained $8.88 over the past two weeks as cash Feeder Cattle continue to work higher. Today’s release of the index was $0.81 higher at $365.93 through Monday’s sales. Open interest within the Feeder Cattle complex has dropped back below 70,000 contracts after the expiration of the March contract and has now lost over 10,000 contracts over the last month. Open interest climbed back above 70,000 after the first of the year and had remained there until the beginning of this week. Typically on big moves higher like we have seen, it comes with increased open interest on fund buying. During the last two weeks, and the rally that has taken place in the Feeder Cattle complex, open interest is not suggesting that the managed money are the buyers.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures tested the 20-day MA yesterday but could not find additional buying. The market turned around and has now finished lower each of the last two days. Last week’s Hogs and Pigs Report gave the market a one day jump higher and left a gap in the market from Thursday night’s close. All of the cash markets have worked lower over the past week which is not helping support the futures market. The national cash average is down $1.04 compared to a week ago and is currently at $90.92. The pork cutout was quoted at $97.57 yesterday which was up $1.01 on the day but down $2.03 compared to a week ago. Last week’s CFTC Report showed the managed money sector as seller of over 15,000 contracts, reducing their long position to 101,483 contracts.

Corn: The USDA released their Prospective Planting Report and Quarterly Stocks Report this morning and gave the industry an idea of what acres will look like for 2026. Corn acres were projected to be 95.3 million, which is down 3.45 million acres from last year’s final acre total. Soybeans acres are estimated up 3.48 million compared to a year ago at 84.7 million acres. All wheat acres were down to 43.8 million acres. Corn futures were four cents lower heading into the report and ended up finishing the day steady to two cents higher despite the somewhat negative acre number. The soybean and wheat markets helped support the Corn market and with the Corn market trading lower the two days heading into the report, some of the bearishness was already built in. The Quarterly Stocks Report showed no surprises with all report numbers coming within the estimated range. Grains will now focus on trading summer weather and planting progress over the next few months. The next major report will be released on June 30 where they can make revisions to this Prospective Planting Report.

 

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn May 457.75 2.00
CHI Wheat May 616.25 9.25
KC Wheat May 635.50 9.25
Soybeans May 1171.00 11.25
Soy Oil May 68.88 0.41
Soy Meal May 316.40 1.50
Live Cattle April 243.025 3.475
Feeder Cattle April 369.125 5.825
Lean Hogs April 90.425 0.050
Crude Oil May 101.53 1.35
Ch Cutout 396.44 2.34
Sel Cutout 394.79 3.78
Feeder Index 365.93 0.81
Pork Cutout 97.57 1.01
Dollar Index 99.930 0.5790
DOW 46,244 1027
National Corn Basis -40.60 0.48
National Bean Basis -73.73 0.15

Dates to Remember

March 31- Prospective Planting

April 2- April Live Cattle Option Expiration

April 3- Good Friday: No Markets

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 90.425 91.050 0.625 87.725 2.700
National Cash 90.92 91.96 1.04 88.49 2.43
Index 90.76 91.78 1.02 88.65 2.11
Cutout 97.57 99.60 2.03 97.45 0.12
IA/SMN Cash 90.95 92.11 1.16 88.78 2.17
IA/SMN Weights 290.50 291.00 0.50 290.70 0.20
Slaughter 2,524,000 2,491,000 33,000 2,476,591 47,409

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 234.91 211.21
South Cash 237.13 207.88
North Steer Basis 0.00 5.91
Choice Boxes 396.44 400.20 3.78 335.26 61.18
Select Boxes 394.79 396.30 1.51 320.01 74.78
Spread 1.65 3.90 2.25 15.25 13.60
Carcass Weights 904 903 1 871 33
Slaughter 520,000 503,000 17,000 608,580 88,580
FC Index 365.93 361.59 4.34 291.50 74.43

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM $237.49 $208.10
KS $237.13 $207.88
NE $234.91 $211.21
IA/MN $235.22 $212.48

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 3/24/2026
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 110,909 4,294 -151,758 426 333,411 458
Feeder Cattle 17,810 123 -9,786 103 68,776 2,146
Lean Hogs 101,483 15,070 -155,520 17,735 332,195 333
Corn 284,548 55,744 -567,545 45,429 1,820,157 8,424
Soybeans 197,904 4,093 -271,259 7,460 969,960 2,748

Live Cattle Markets

April Live Cattle tested the highs from February today. Resistance is at 244.125 and then 244.575. Support is at 236.300 followed by the 20-day MA of 234.925.

Feeder Cattle Markets

April Feeder Cattle traded to the highest level since the beginning of February today. Resistance is at 371.025 and then 374.925. Support is at 356.850 followed by the 20-day MA of 353.175.

Lean Hogs Markets

June Lean Hogs failed to move through the 20-day MA this week. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 107.125 and then 107.350. Support is at 104.550 followed by 102.950.

Corn Markets

May Corn finished the day higher despite the USDA showing more Corn acres than expected for 2026. Support is at 451 1/4 and then 449 1/4. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 459 1/2 followed by 473 3/4.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.  Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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