5/1/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures started the month sharply higher and posted new contract highs throughout the complex before falling throughout the day and finishing the day lower. This week’s cash market took place early in the week at sharply higher money and left the market little to look forward to towards the end of the week. There has been limited numbers of cattle traded the final two days of the week but most cattle traded from 255-257 live and 400 on a dressed basis on Tuesday and Wednesday. Boxed beef was quoted lower this morning with choice being down $0.24 at $389.28 and select $1.65 lower at $386.52. Both choice and select will finish the week about $2.00 higher than week ago levels. Packers will likely slow down the chain speed again next week and cut kills to manage inventory of fat cattle while the boxed beef market struggles to work higher. This week’s estimated slaughter is 534,000 head, 5,000 head larger than a week ago and above most expectations for the week. Steer and heifer carcass weights were down slightly this week but remain near record highs as feedlots leverage the economic advantage to make cattle bigger.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures pushed to new contract highs in most months today on what appeared to be new fund buying to start the month as well as buy stops getting triggered just above the old contract highs. The market drifted lower late in the morning and finished near its lows for the day. The Corn market continued to climb for most of the day as well and that added some selling pressure to the Feeder Cattle complex. The most active August contract traded a nearly $17.500 range this week after an over $10.000 range a week ago. The CME Feeder Cattle index is quoted at $374.03 through Thursday’s sales. This is a gain of $4.71 compared to a week ago and is just over $5 below the all-time high of $379.09. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 1,676 contracts for the week ending Tuesday. This reduced their net long position to 17,089 contracts.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures gapped lower this morning after news of pseudorabies being discovered in Iowa. It has since been learned that the case was limited to five boars on a small farm and those boars were brought in from Texas. It is thought that they contracted the disease from wild boars in the state before they were shipped north. These boars have been euthanized and there is a five-mile quarantine set in place around the farm. The futures market attempted to recover mid-day after testing the yearly lows, but ended the day in the middle of the range. On Wednesday, the futures pushed back above the 20-day MA and created a positive technical picture, but the market fell back below that line on Thursday. Export inspections released yesterday showed a four-week high in pork shipments and Mexico accounted for over 55% of the total volume. The monthly export totals for March will be released next week. To this point in 2026, exports look very good so long as Spain continues to fight ASF problems within the country.

Corn: December Corn futures traded through $5 today and new contract highs were set in the 2027 contracts. Crude oil posted new contract highs on Thursday before finishing lower and carrying the lower momentum into today, but the Corn futures continue to appreciate the $100+ price of oil. Weather premium appears to be getting placed into the deferred months as the U.S. growing season gets underway. Continued good demand from all demand streams is also helping the Corn market chug higher. Ethanol margins remain very good, feed demand is good, and export sales continue to move at good levels. Currently, the U.S. is about 60 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA export goal. Basis levels continue to improve across the Corn Belt as well with farmers focusing on getting the crops planted. The technical picture within the Corn complex improved this week, but a settlement above $5 in the December contract will be the next hurdle to jump for the Corn market to continue working higher.

Closing Prices

Market Month Last Change
Corn July 480.25 5.50
CHI Wheat July 637.75 1.00
KC Wheat July 694.50 1.00
Soybeans July 1203.25 7.75
Soy Oil July 75.16 0.62
Soy Meal July 319.30 0.40
Live Cattle June 253.000 1.000
Feeder Cattle May 371.400 1.250
Lean Hogs May 92.825 0.625
Crude Oil June 102.02 3.05
Ch Cutout 389.28 0.24
Sel Cutout 386.52 1.65
Feeder Index 374.03 1.56
Pork Cutout 96.76 0.43
Dollar Index 98.196 0.1400
DOW 49,592 59
National Corn Basis -32.27 0.32
National Bean Basis -58.65 0.25

Dates to Remember

May 12- WASDE Report

May 14- May Lean Hog Expiration

Hog Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
Lead Month Future 92.825 94.300 1.475 92.400 0.425
National Cash 92.64 92.27 0.37 92.39 0.25
Index 91.41 91.43 0.02 89.69 1.72
Cutout 96.76 97.82 1.06 96.46 0.30
IA/SMN Cash 92.65 92.67 0.02 92.93 0.28
IA/SMN Weights 290.90 291.70 0.80 291.60 0.70
Slaughter 2,446,000 2,469,000 23,000 2,476,311 30,311

Cattle Fundamentals

Current One Week Ago Change One Year Ago Change
North Cash 255-258 246.00 8-12 Higher 222.41 34.09
South Cash 250-258 246.11 4-12 Higher 217.00 37.00
North Steer Basis 0.00 -0.50 0.50 3.08 3.08
Choice Boxes 389.28 387.16 2.12 343.17 46.11
Select Boxes 386.52 384.96 1.56 324.28 62.24
Spread 2.76 2.20 0.56 18.89 16.13
Carcass Weights 902 902 0 878 24
Slaughter 534,000 529,000 5,000 562,668 28,668
FC Index 374.03 369.32 4.71 296.10 77.93

Cash Cattle Markets

Region This Week Last Week Last Year
TX/OK/NM 250-258 $246.00 $217.34
KS 250-258 $246.11 $217.00
NE 255-258 $246.00 $222.41
IA/MN 255-258 $246.36 $222.01

CFTC Disaggregated COT Report

As of: 4/28/2026
Commodity Current Managed Money Change Current Producer/Commercial Change Total OI Total OI Change
Live Cattle 136,591 1,796 -182,286 5,966 354,665 1,237
Feeder Cattle 17,089 1,676 -11,126 347 66,632 723
Lean Hogs 57,565 8,026 -116,080 8,074 313,545 3,105
Corn 264,103 79,697 -554,366 79,919 1,823,313 9,485
Soybeans 185,282 7,602 -262,938 1,024 918,743 11,395

Live Cattle Markets

June Live Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at that high of 256.625 and then 258.725. Support is at 251.900 followed by the 20-day MA of 248.375.

Feeder Cattle Markets

May Feeder Cattle tested their contract high today. Resistance is at 378.275 and then 378.500. Support is at 370.100 followed by the 20-day MA of 367.550.

Lean Hogs Markets

June Lean Hogs tested the yearly low again today. Support is at 100.350 and then 100.175. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 103.100 followed by 104.450.

Corn Markets

July Corn pushed to new highs for the move today. Resistance is at 484 and then 487 1/2. Support is at 471 1/4 followed by the 20-day MA of 463.

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.  Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.

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