6/5/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week higher but well off of the highs set earlier today. The futures posted a low in the opening minutes on Thursday following the news of a Screwworm being detected in Texas on Wednesday. The futures quickly traded from sharply lower to positive in just a few minutes and proceeded to move higher through the rest of the day. Today’s move higher pushed all of the Live Cattle contracts through the 20-day MA but they could not settle above that line. Cash trade was mixed this week compared to a week ago with the North trading cattle from 253-258 and the South trading from 255-258. This week’s averages will likely be about a dollar below last week’s weighted averages. Boxed beef was mixed this week compared to a week ago. For the week, choice was up $1.11 to $393.17 while select was down $3.54 to $386.86. The choice/select spread has widened out to $6.31. The fear surrounding the Screwworm mainly comes from consumer sentiment and the possible opening of the Mexican Border now that it is already here. Screwworm will not affect the food supply but concerns as to whether the consumer will shy away from beef has been a topic. We should remember that we have been importing beef from Mexico the entire time the Screwworm was present in the country and consumers have not backed away up to this point.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures turned in a massive $17.000/cwt range and finished the day limit higher yesterday. This morning, the August contract traded through the 20-day MA and filled the gap that was left two weeks ago before finishing the day just slightly higher. The Feeder Cattle futures spent the middle of the week trading lower as it was rumored that there was a case of Screwworm in Texas. This eventually was confirmed to be true and pushed the Feeder Cattle complex to the lowest levels since the final days of 2025. The market has been worried about when the Screwworm would show up in the U.S. for going on 18 months, and the last few weeks in particular, the market had traded lower pricing in the potential discovery. Traders will now watch what protocols are set within the U.S. as far as transport of animals and ways to combat the Screwworm from spreading, as well as any signs indicating the re-opening of the Mexican border. The CME Feeder Cattle index lost $12.02 this week. Currently, the index is quoted at $361.38 which was up $2.17 on the day. Today’s CFTC Report show the funds as buyers of 248 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday, increasing their net long position to 10,843 contracts.

Lean Hogs: After opening the week at $95.700, June contract climbed to a high of $96.350 on Wednesday before finishing lower on the week at $94.300. The deferred contracts followed the same trend as the nearby months as they finished $1.000-$1.850 lower across the complex. The Lean Hog index finished the week stronger at $92.51 which is up $1.59 since last Friday. This is the highest the Lean Hog Index has been since October 27. The pork cutout worked higher this week at $101.18 which is $1.73 higher on the week and back above the $100 level for the first time since April 20. The bellies finishing out the week at $115.66. Slaughter this week is estimated at 2,428,000. This week’s CFTC Report continued to show long liquidation and new selling by the managed money. They were sellers of 19,535 contracts on the week, which leaves them net short 6,551 contracts.

Corn: Corn futures finished lower each day this week and the nearby July contract posted new contract lows each of the past two days. The December contract is nearing its contract low but has not seen as significant of a decline as the nearby contracts. The feature during this collapse in the Corn market has been fund selling. Today’s CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers of 90,422 contracts, reducing their net long position to 115,082 contracts. This is nearly 1/3 of the long position that they held just one month ago when it was reported they were long almost 344,000 contracts. The crude oil market has also traded lower the past two days as it fails to find much support above $100. Weather with in the U.S. remains favorable for production for 2026 as weather models still predict above normal moisture and slightly warmer temps in the 6-10 day forecast. Basis levels continue to firm across the Corn Belt as farmer selling has slowed with the lower futures prices.