6/16/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded sharply higher today and have gained $8.025/cwt through the first two days of the week. The August contract traded above the 20-day MA last week and pushed above that level to start this week and that has brought the managed money back to the complex as buyers. Open interest increased yesterday which indicated new buying. Today, the futures took out the most recent highs set just ten days ago and that propelled the futures to the highest levels since May 18. Choice beef has also moved higher and is nearing the $400 mark. This morning, choice was quoted $4.86 higher at $399.91 and select was $1.58 higher at $377.99. The choice/select spread has widened out to $21.92 and is now at the highest levels since September 2025. Cash trade has been quiet up to this point of the week but the higher futures have caused the feedlots to be optimistic. Late last week, a major packer in the North bid 258 for cattle to be delivered this week indicating that the packers may be shorter on inventory than initial thoughts. Carcass weights have began to drop as the cash price and basis levels were favorable to feedlots for the past month. Average carcass weights for slaughter data ending May 30 fell eight pounds last week but remain 22 pounds higher than a year ago. Steer and heifer weights were down four pounds but 31 pounds larger than last year. Seasonally, carcass weights bottom between June 10 and June 20. Estimates for Thursday’s Cattle on Feed Report are for 2.3% more cattle on feed than a year ago while placements look to be 11% less.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures also traded sharply higher today and have now gained more than $30.000/cwt from the lows set after the discovery of New World Screwworm in the United States. Open interest and fund length had fallen to the lowest level since November of 2024 with the move lower a few weeks ago and both of those have increased over the past few days. The CME Feeder Cattle index has now moved to a discount to the futures after holding a premium to the nearby futures contract since the May contract expired. These two will not need to converge until the end of August when the August contract goes off the board but will likely remain fairly close throughout the coming months. Today, the index was quoted $1.33 higher at $364.00 through Monday’s sales. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to sell well across the country as feedlots have open pens and feed prices continue to work lower. Estimates for Friday’s CFTC Report are for placements for the month of May to be down 7.2% compared to May 2025.

Lean Hogs: June Lean Hogs expired on Friday at 92.525 leaving the July board as the lead month which closed out last week higher at 97.450. That momentum in the July contract was quickly erased on Monday though, and the trade lower followed through into Tuesday to a close of 94.850. Meanwhile, the October contract broke through their support levels in the 80.000 area, closing out the day at 79.925. The Lean Hog index is starting to show some weakness after closing last week at $92.90 and dropping to $92.09 on Tuesday. The pork cutout is also struggling to show any sign of consistency after trading above the $100 level a couple of times in the last few weeks and then trading as low as $94.47 last week. Today, the pork cutout was quoted at $95.59 with the biggest losers being the hams and butts. 

Corn: Corn futures again set new contract lows when the December contract touched 434 1/4 on Monday’s open. Today, Corn futures traded higher at the beginning of the session but failed to hold as they closed the day mixed. News of a peace deal signing in the Middle East pushed energy markets and grains lower from the open Sunday night. Unlike many of the past potential peace deals, this looks to be coming true and will open the Strait of Hormuz for trade. All eyes will be on the amount of oil and fertilizer that crosses the strait over the next six months. Crop condition ratings continue to show no concern for U.S. crop production in 2026. Corn good/excellent ratings rose 1% to 68% vs 72% last year. Soybeans also increased 1% in good/excellent and are now at 66%, right in line with last year at this time. The market continues to watch for any potential buyers globally to grow demand while the supply of grains is expected to be abundant.