6/23/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to the highest levels since May 6 yesterday but traded off of those highs throughout the day and then finished the day lower today. The cash market moved higher at the end of last week as packers were bidding 260 late in the day Friday which helped push the futures higher yesterday. The Cattle on Feed Report was also a little friendly as the on feed total and placements numbers were both lower than the pre-report estimates. This week’s cash market is expected to be higher again as packers appear to be shorter on inventory. The feedlots will most likely be asking 265 to begin the week. Bids have been quiet up to this point of the week but there was a major packer in the North that was willing to call in with a 408 dressed bid. Boxed beef was quoted sharply higher this morning with choice being $4.20 higher at $400.26 and select was $7.18 higher at $382.77. The choice/select has narrowed up to $17.49 after trading well over $20.00 a few times in the last week. Last week’s CFTC Report was released yesterday due to the holiday on Friday. As of last Tuesday, the managed money were buyers of 15,347 contracts, increasing their net long position to 124,349 contracts. Open interest has increased slightly through this move higher in the futures but is nowhere near where it ran for the majority of 2025.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures opened the week sharply higher but have quickly erased over $5.000/cwt since those highs were set. Open interest within the complex has moved higher as the futures moved to a price well below the current cash fundamentals. The latest rally in the futures moved the futures above the cash market but now the cash market has gained steam and moved back above the futures. Today, the CME Feeder Cattle index is currently at $373.00 which is $2.44 higher on the day and $9.00 higher on the week. As of last Tuesday, the managed money was long 13,123 contracts which was an increase of 2,203 contracts. This is the first sizable increase in a few months but still leaves the managed money with less length than they have been holding for the past 18 months.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures finished the day mixed but the August contract has now finished higher for four days in a row. This morning, it traded through the 20-day MA for the first time since May 18, but could not settle the day above that line. The Lean Hog index is currently at $91.64 which is down $0.45 on the week and at the lowest level in the past three weeks. The pork cutout has rebounded from the lows set toward the end of last week but continues to hang in the mid $90.00 level. Currently, the pork cutout is quoted at $96.08, well below the monthly high of $101.18. The CFTC Report showed the managed money as sellers again last week. The funds are currently short 20,959 contracts which increased 7,258 contracts on the week. The all-time record short position is 31,110 contracts. Open interest remains to be below 300,000 which is a big drop from last fall. The USDA will release their quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Thursday. Estimates are for all hogs to increase 0.9%, breeding stock to decrease 0.7%, and litter size to increase 1.4%.

Corn: Corn continued their move lower today despite U.S. crop conditions remaining steady this week and comparable to last year’s record-breaking results. Crop stress continues to be talked about throughout much of the Corn Belt with too much moisture in the eastern Corn Belt and not enough in the western areas. Wheat ratings continue to drop, losing another two points despite trade expectations for a slight improvement. Corn prices keep falling as oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil futures lower and eroding grain premiums. One private analyst has trimmed South American acreage expansion due to higher input costs and El Niño concerns. El Niño is currently front-loading moisture in South America but is forecasted to bring dryness from August through November, coinciding with planting and early crop development. India and Australia are also likely to experience dryness, as is Thailand’s palm oil region. Next week, the USDA releases the Planted Acres Report, with the trade monitoring for potential changes, especially amid the ongoing drought in the U.S. Plains.