8/18/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures started the day sharply higher today after the news of a labor agreement at the Cargill plant in Ft. Morgan, Colorado hit the news wires yesterday afternoon. Those early gains failed within the first hour and the complex traded lower until the morning boxed beef report came out and showed choice sharply higher. Choice was quoted $10.04 higher at $389.61 and select was $2.54 higher at $366.80. This is an increase of $19.23 compared to a week ago for choice and $16.61 for select. These increases come after the closure of the Tyson plant in Joslin, Illinois at the end of last week. It feels like the rally in beef the last few days is driven by fear of less beef being available due to the plant closure instead of increased demand or sustained beef prices. There has been limited to no cash trade so far this week but there have been bids of 225 live and 355 dressed in the North today. The feedlots are hoping for higher prices and better basis than current levels being offered. Traders will continue to watch developments with the Cargill plant in Ft. Morgan along with boxed beef prices over the coming days.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures also started the day higher before slipping lower but were then lifted by the higher Live Cattle board and lower Corn market. All contract months finished higher today with the exception of the nearby August contract as it continues to price in the current cash Feeder Cattle market. Today, the Feeder Cattle index was quoted $0.88 lower at $343.55. This is the lowest level that the index has been quoted since early December of last year. Anticipation of the Mexican border being opened has hurt cash Feeder Cattle prices along with the lower futures and reduced optimism surrounding cash fat cattle. The August contract will expire next Thursday and is currently at a $4.33 discount to the Feeder Cattle index.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures continued the trend lower today. All contracts except October set new contract lows but October did set a new low for the move. Technical support in the October contract is found at 80.000 followed by the next major support area at 75.000. The national cash average was lower yesterday, losing $0.68, settling at $92.62. The pork cutout continues to stay below the $100 mark, coming in at $98.75 yesterday. Less than a month ago the cutout was nearing $105. Total pork production was down 1.6% last week compared to last year, due to slaughter cuts and hog weights that continue to decline seasonally. One thing to pay attention to within the Lean Hog market over the next couple months is the price of Corn and feed as margins continue to tighten. If there is not a decline in feed costs and new crop cash Corn costs near $5.00, producers may look at taking finishing weight off these animals if no premium is added to the market. The managed money also continues to pay attention to exports as they stay strong with optimism going into the end of the year.

Corn: The Pro-Farmer crop tour reported that the Corn crops in South Dakota and Ohio are performing below last year’s levels and the current USDA estimates. Although the Pro-Farmer tour generally provides lower yields than the USDA, it is specifically noting a year-over-year decline. In Ohio, the tour measured corn yields at 3% below last year, while the USDA projects a 5% increase for 2026. Recent social media reports from those that are on the tour indicate weak and immature crops in Indiana, as well as pollination and tip-back issues in Nebraska. Final totals for these two states will be out later tonight. Crop conditions for both corn and soybeans are continuing to deteriorate. On Monday, Corn export inspections totaled 75 million bushels, placing exports 200 million bushels above the USDA’s marketing year projection with two just weeks remaining in the marketing year. Continued disruptions in the Black Sea region are contributing to higher grain prices, and elevated fuel costs are supporting robust ethanol margins. President Trump announced that he will not extend the 60-day interim deal with Iran, which expired yesterday. If hostility resumes, war premium may be reintroduced to the Corn market.