Commentary

Chinese tariff retaliations sent all livestock markets limit lower on Friday. Live cattle and feeder cattle have been unable to shed the negative news and lower equity markets as the cash fundamentals remain strong. Lean hog futures are worried about export demand to China with the reciprocal tariffs in place. Corn futures faired much better this week after the USDA Prospective Planting report confirmed more corn acres in 2025.

Live cattle futures moved higher following the higher boxed beef market, while feeder cattle continue to follow record-high prices in sale barns. Lean hogs continue to be cautious as tariffs with North American trade partners are set to go into place on Wednesday. Corn has rallied nearly 20 cents since the USDA Prospective Planting Report that confirmed larger corn acres than a year ago.

Cash trade in the country has been slow to develop this week as feedlots are in no hurry to sell cattle and packers are not interested in increasing their bids. Cash feeder cattle continue to set records across all classes of cattle. The USDA Hogs and Pigs Report showed there are less hogs than the estimates had thought, but Lean Hog futures could not hold onto the early gains on Friday. Corn futures posted a new low for the month as traders await the USDA numbers for 2025 acres.

After setting new contract and all-time highs to finish last week, live cattle and feeder cattle futures have turned lower and in volatile fashion while the cash fundamentals surrounding both complexes remain strong. Lean hog traders are waiting for the latest USDA hog inventory update while cash fundamentals have become stagnant. The corn market has been trading sideways as the industry waits for the first glimpse into the 2025 growing season with the release of the Prospective Planting Report next Monday.

Cash fat cattle traded to a new all-time high this week and live cattle futures posted new record highs. The CME feeder cattle index is currently at a record high and the feeder cattle futures traded through to 290 for the first time ever. Hogs continue to chop sideways while waiting for more certainty on tariffs with Mexico. Corn exports were good this week but were unable to push the futures higher.

Live and Feeder Cattle continue to post now contract highs, while the feeders are setting all-time record highs. Tight supply of available cattle continues to drive the cash markets to record levels. Lean hogs have traded sharply in both directions this week and ran into overhead resistance and support under the market. Corn found support with the wheat market to begin the week and before having a very quiet day today. Traders continue to watch relations between U.S. and key trade partners as tariffs are looming.

Live and feeder cattle surged on strong cash fundamentals, tight supplies and record-high futures, while lean hogs saw a recovery but faced resistance amid tariff concerns. Corn futures declined despite strong export demand with uncertainty over Mexican tariffs weighing on the market.

Live cattle futures have had a quiet start to the week as traders wait to see how cash trade develops. Feedlots are priced higher while packers wait until later in the week to bid on cattle. Feeder cattle futures set new all-time highs as the CME feeder cattle index moves back higher as demand stays strong. Lean hogs traded lower on Tuesday after a near $8 rally following the tariff delays last week. Corn finished the day slightly lower as the USDA made no changes to the corn balance sheet in their monthly WASDE report.

Live and Feeder Cattle rallied into the end of the week and cash cattle traded back above $200 for the first time in three weeks. Lean Hogs found support on tariff delays with Mexico, our top pork customer. After more than two weeks of declining prices, Corn found support and traded higher each of the last three days this week.

Cattle futures saw sharp swings while boxed beef remains stagnant despite seasonal demand trends. The hog market continues to struggle with tariff pressures dragging prices lower regardless of steady cash fundamentals. Tariff concerns also linger for the corn market with higher corn acres projected causing markets to search for support.