Commentary

With markets closed tomorrow, the cattle complex finished the week with big gains as the cash markets continue to be red hot. Fat cattle traded as high as 213 in the North this week while the CME feeder cattle index posted a new all-time high. Traders are hopeful that talks with Japan open the door to continued export business. Corn futures turned sideways as corn planting moves forward and export demand remains strong.

Live and Feeder Cattle futures have both rallied into technical resistance as open interest continues to decrease. Cash trade has yet to be established this week after trading $3.50 lower a week ago. Lean Hog futures also gained back most of their losses seen over a week ago as cash fundamentals and the pork cutout all drift lower. Nearby corn futures have worked lower after a six day streak of higher closes while new crop has been steady higher this week.

The cattle complex traded in correlation with the equity markets all week but finished the week on a positive note. Cash cattle traded lower towards the beginning of the week as sellers were able to capture a good basis. Lean hogs fundamentals have fallen lower while the futures rallied to finish the week. Corn finished higher every day this week as the U.S. carryout is now below 1.5 billion bushels and the U.S. growing season is right around the corner.

The cattle complex has traded with extreme volatility to begin the week as the equity markets have been under heavy pressure. Traders are waiting to see what cash cattle looks like as packers continue to have slim inventories but attempt to buy cattle cheaper with a lower futures market. Lean hog futures have been under pressure all week as traders worry about the impact the new tariffs will have on pork export demand. Corn traded into overhead resistance levels on Tuesday and set up an important day on Wednesday to see if higher prices are in the near future.

Chinese tariff retaliations sent all livestock markets limit lower on Friday. Live cattle and feeder cattle have been unable to shed the negative news and lower equity markets as the cash fundamentals remain strong. Lean hog futures are worried about export demand to China with the reciprocal tariffs in place. Corn futures faired much better this week after the USDA Prospective Planting report confirmed more corn acres in 2025.

Live cattle futures moved higher following the higher boxed beef market, while feeder cattle continue to follow record-high prices in sale barns. Lean hogs continue to be cautious as tariffs with North American trade partners are set to go into place on Wednesday. Corn has rallied nearly 20 cents since the USDA Prospective Planting Report that confirmed larger corn acres than a year ago.

Cash trade in the country has been slow to develop this week as feedlots are in no hurry to sell cattle and packers are not interested in increasing their bids. Cash feeder cattle continue to set records across all classes of cattle. The USDA Hogs and Pigs Report showed there are less hogs than the estimates had thought, but Lean Hog futures could not hold onto the early gains on Friday. Corn futures posted a new low for the month as traders await the USDA numbers for 2025 acres.

After setting new contract and all-time highs to finish last week, live cattle and feeder cattle futures have turned lower and in volatile fashion while the cash fundamentals surrounding both complexes remain strong. Lean hog traders are waiting for the latest USDA hog inventory update while cash fundamentals have become stagnant. The corn market has been trading sideways as the industry waits for the first glimpse into the 2025 growing season with the release of the Prospective Planting Report next Monday.

Cash fat cattle traded to a new all-time high this week and live cattle futures posted new record highs. The CME feeder cattle index is currently at a record high and the feeder cattle futures traded through to 290 for the first time ever. Hogs continue to chop sideways while waiting for more certainty on tariffs with Mexico. Corn exports were good this week but were unable to push the futures higher.

Live and Feeder Cattle continue to post now contract highs, while the feeders are setting all-time record highs. Tight supply of available cattle continues to drive the cash markets to record levels. Lean hogs have traded sharply in both directions this week and ran into overhead resistance and support under the market. Corn found support with the wheat market to begin the week and before having a very quiet day today. Traders continue to watch relations between U.S. and key trade partners as tariffs are looming.