Commentary

Live and feeder cattle surged on strong cash fundamentals, tight supplies and record-high futures, while lean hogs saw a recovery but faced resistance amid tariff concerns. Corn futures declined despite strong export demand with uncertainty over Mexican tariffs weighing on the market.

Live cattle futures have had a quiet start to the week as traders wait to see how cash trade develops. Feedlots are priced higher while packers wait until later in the week to bid on cattle. Feeder cattle futures set new all-time highs as the CME feeder cattle index moves back higher as demand stays strong. Lean hogs traded lower on Tuesday after a near $8 rally following the tariff delays last week. Corn finished the day slightly lower as the USDA made no changes to the corn balance sheet in their monthly WASDE report.

Live and Feeder Cattle rallied into the end of the week and cash cattle traded back above $200 for the first time in three weeks. Lean Hogs found support on tariff delays with Mexico, our top pork customer. After more than two weeks of declining prices, Corn found support and traded higher each of the last three days this week.

Cattle futures saw sharp swings while boxed beef remains stagnant despite seasonal demand trends. The hog market continues to struggle with tariff pressures dragging prices lower regardless of steady cash fundamentals. Tariff concerns also linger for the corn market with higher corn acres projected causing markets to search for support.

Lower prices were seen across the entire commodity sector to finish the week and the month of February. Live cattle struggle to find buyers with a cash market that has turned lower over the past month and product market that fails to find strength. Feeder cattle posted gains for the week following a near-record cash market and lower corn. Lean hogs traded sharply lower on the news of tariffs going into effect next week for multiple countries, and corn finished the week lower as traders begin to look at the 2025 growing season and a large amount of corn acres.

Live Cattle futures increased on higher boxed beef values, while cash cattle fell for the third week. Feeder Cattle surged on tight supplies, while Lean Hogs and Corn both showed concern over trade restrictions.

Live cattle traded $2-3 lower this week but the futures markets managed to trade sideways. The USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report showed no surprises as cattle inside of feed yards is slightly smaller than a year ago and placements were 2% larger than 2024. Lean hogs fell victim to softer cash fundamentals, lead by the pork cutout, and April futures finished the week $4.925 lower. Corn continues to be supported as it posted new highs for the move this week but gave up most of their gains on Friday.

Live Cattle continue to fight headwinds of poor fundamentals and a record long position that is being unwound, while Feeder Cattle futures trade higher on historically high cash prices. Lean Hogs are following the cash fundamentals higher, setting new contract highs in the summer months. Corn exports remain strong and have shown good demand for U.S. corn, pushing futures to levels we haven’t seen since May 2024.

Feeder cattle futures stayed sweet this Valentine’s Day, edging higher with strong demand in the sales barns still but live cattle prices dropped sharply, pressured by weak cash trade and lower slaughter rates. Lean hogs hit new highs, but Mexico trade concerns linger. Corn stays strong with solid exports and prospects for increased 2025 planted acres.

Cattle futures fell due to bird flu concerns, though live cattle saw some recovery later, while feeder cattle remained weak with lower cash prices and pressure from imports from Mexico. Lean hogs stayed strong with higher production forecasts and strong prices, nearing contract highs. Corn markets held steady despite lower South American production estimates, strong U.S. ethanol demand and unchanged export projections.