Live Cattle: Futures started the shortened holiday week with a softer tone. Bull spreads continue to hold as traders are unwilling to let the front months trade too far away from the cash market, while some skepticism remains as to the duration of this cash market continuing to be sustainable. Morning boxes were softer in the choice, but higher in the select. The Choice/Select spread continues to narrow, now down to 11.16, indicating softer demand. The long-asked question of how long the consumer can withstand these prices at the meat counter is starting to show signs of weakness. With December credit card receipts hitting the already taxed consumer, cheaper and lower cuts are finding demand at the grocery store. Early asking prices in the country are steadily higher this week. Trade will most likely be late in the week with some basis trade exceptions, with most feedlots wanting to gain some weight back after this cold weather snap. The next Cattle on Feed report will be out on Friday at 2 p.m. The average guess for On Feed is 99.8% of a year ago, with Placements at 101.8% and Marketings at 101.3%.
Feeder Cattle: Cash feeder cattle have seemed to plateau for the time being. Corn futures have rallied close to 60 cents a bushel over the last 2 months and, as a result, feedlots have taken the top end off of their bids in sale barns. The index has not backed off in extreme fashion but has started to move sideways. Nearby futures continue to be supported by the cash while the deferred contracts are starting to grow weary as to the staying power of the cash feeders at this level. The index today is quoted up 1.86 at 278.92. Weather seems to also be playing a factor in softer bids in the sale barns, although we have yet to see that reflected in the index.
Lean Hogs: Futures started the day higher but quickly turned lower in most of the deferred months. Cash and index remain steady while the product works slightly higher to a new high for the month of January. Last week we mentioned the US Dollar/Peso and its potential effect on pork exports to Mexico, this morning the US Dollar is sharply lower, helping that spread become more attractive for exports to Mexico. The Trump administration is not currently announcing immediate tariffs, but rather putting the agreements up for review, which is a small victory for the time being.
Corn: Strength across the futures market continued to start the week. March corn took out the next line of resistance at 488 this morning, while May and July are bumping up against $5. The corn market is trying to make up the price discrepancy now that we have shrunk our carryout 26% since June. A combination of increased demand and smaller production throughout the latest reports has brought our carryout to a much more manageable level and much tighter than originally thought. Cash basis continues to drift lower with the rally in the futures. A lot of elevators and ethanol plants have plenty of corn around them and aren’t needing to push bids to get corn bought.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
March
490.00
5.75
CHI Wheat
March
558.75
20.00
KC Wheat
March
575.50
27.00
MN Wheat
March
602.25
18.75
Soybeans
March
1067.25
33.25
Soy Oil
March
45.77
0.08
Soy Meal
March
311.00
13.80
Live Cattle
April
197.325
0.175
Feeder Cattle
March
267.250
0.800
Lean Hogs
April
81.200
0.075
Crude Oil
March
75.86
1.53
Ch Cutout
332.56
0.60
Sel Cutout
321.4
1.96
Feeder Index
278.92
1.86
Pork Cutout
92.31
1.71
Dollar Index
108.064
1.283
DOW
43,932
444
National Corn Basis
-32.23
0.49
National Bean Basis
-60.43
0.57
Dates to Remember
Jan 24- Cattle on Feed
Jan 24- Cold Storage
Jan 30- January Feeder Cattle Expiration
Jan 31- Cattle Inventory
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
81.200
83.625
2.425
70.925
10.275
National Cash
79.17
79.14
0.03
46.53
32.64
Index
81.40
80.76
0.64
68.75
12.65
Cutout
92.31
90.20
2.11
85.60
6.71
IA/SMN Cash
80.39
79.20
1.19
46.22
34.17
IA/SMN Weights
292.2
293.2
1.00
291.3
0.90
Slaughter
2,627,000
2,531,000
96,000
2,617,168
9832
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
203.76
174.21
South Cash
201.00
175.85
North Steer Basis
6.48
-0.26
Choice Boxes
332.56
332.98
0.42
289.26
43.30
Select Boxes
321.40
318.71
2.69
271.85
49.55
Spread
11.16
14.27
3.11
17.41
6.25
Carcass Weights
881
874
7
854
27
Slaughter
603,000
589,000
14,000
605,147
2,147
FC Index
278.0=92
278.55
.37
228.51
50.41
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$201.00
$174.98
KS
$200.98
$174.21
NE
$203.76
$175.85
IA/MN
$204.66
$175.82
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/14/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
147,421
3,965
-183,015
3,063
375,141
1,469
Feeder Cattle
28,749
2,365
-11,344
489
81,410
372
Lean Hogs
103,598
6,408
-153,455
5,885
305,873
2,696
Corn
292,228
38,882
-540,764
52,432
1,911,231
50,918
Soybeans
34,833
63,445
-120,158
66,450
845,734
12,128
Live Cattle Markets
The 199.825 all time appears to be keeping a dark cloud over the futures. Contract high is 199.700 that traded on 2 separate days. Both will offer top-side resistance along with 200.00. 195.325 and the 20-day MA at 193.550 continue to be support line underneath the market.
Feeder Cattle Markets
Top side resistance remains at the contract high of 271.000 in the March contract. Small support remains at 265.650. 20-Day MA at 264.300 will offer support along with the low from January 8 at 263.625.
Lean Hogs Markets
Continued chart failure after taking out top-side resistance last week. 100-day MA should offer some support at 86.40 in the April contract. Settlement below the 20-day MA will have pressure some of the managed money to start liquidating long positions.
Corn Markets
March Corn traded through resistance level of 488 this morning and is now trading at the highest level since May. Next resistance level will be $5 and then 504 1/2. Downside support will surface in the 475 area.
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1/21/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Futures started the shortened holiday week with a softer tone. Bull spreads continue to hold as traders are unwilling to let the front months trade too far away from the cash market, while some skepticism remains as to the duration of this cash market continuing to be sustainable. Morning boxes were softer in the choice, but higher in the select. The Choice/Select spread continues to narrow, now down to 11.16, indicating softer demand. The long-asked question of how long the consumer can withstand these prices at the meat counter is starting to show signs of weakness. With December credit card receipts hitting the already taxed consumer, cheaper and lower cuts are finding demand at the grocery store. Early asking prices in the country are steadily higher this week. Trade will most likely be late in the week with some basis trade exceptions, with most feedlots wanting to gain some weight back after this cold weather snap. The next Cattle on Feed report will be out on Friday at 2 p.m. The average guess for On Feed is 99.8% of a year ago, with Placements at 101.8% and Marketings at 101.3%.
Feeder Cattle: Cash feeder cattle have seemed to plateau for the time being. Corn futures have rallied close to 60 cents a bushel over the last 2 months and, as a result, feedlots have taken the top end off of their bids in sale barns. The index has not backed off in extreme fashion but has started to move sideways. Nearby futures continue to be supported by the cash while the deferred contracts are starting to grow weary as to the staying power of the cash feeders at this level. The index today is quoted up 1.86 at 278.92. Weather seems to also be playing a factor in softer bids in the sale barns, although we have yet to see that reflected in the index.
Lean Hogs: Futures started the day higher but quickly turned lower in most of the deferred months. Cash and index remain steady while the product works slightly higher to a new high for the month of January. Last week we mentioned the US Dollar/Peso and its potential effect on pork exports to Mexico, this morning the US Dollar is sharply lower, helping that spread become more attractive for exports to Mexico. The Trump administration is not currently announcing immediate tariffs, but rather putting the agreements up for review, which is a small victory for the time being.
Corn: Strength across the futures market continued to start the week. March corn took out the next line of resistance at 488 this morning, while May and July are bumping up against $5. The corn market is trying to make up the price discrepancy now that we have shrunk our carryout 26% since June. A combination of increased demand and smaller production throughout the latest reports has brought our carryout to a much more manageable level and much tighter than originally thought. Cash basis continues to drift lower with the rally in the futures. A lot of elevators and ethanol plants have plenty of corn around them and aren’t needing to push bids to get corn bought.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Jan 24- Cattle on Feed
Jan 24- Cold Storage
Jan 30- January Feeder Cattle Expiration
Jan 31- Cattle Inventory
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/14/2025
Live Cattle Markets
The 199.825 all time appears to be keeping a dark cloud over the futures. Contract high is 199.700 that traded on 2 separate days. Both will offer top-side resistance along with 200.00. 195.325 and the 20-day MA at 193.550 continue to be support line underneath the market.
Feeder Cattle Markets
Top side resistance remains at the contract high of 271.000 in the March contract. Small support remains at 265.650. 20-Day MA at 264.300 will offer support along with the low from January 8 at 263.625.
Lean Hogs Markets
Continued chart failure after taking out top-side resistance last week. 100-day MA should offer some support at 86.40 in the April contract. Settlement below the 20-day MA will have pressure some of the managed money to start liquidating long positions.
Corn Markets
March Corn traded through resistance level of 488 this morning and is now trading at the highest level since May. Next resistance level will be $5 and then 504 1/2. Downside support will surface in the 475 area.