Live Cattle: The cash cattle market continues to surprise traders, and the futures market has no choice but to play catch up. Early trade in the south at 201 gave way to 202 trade later in the week, but the north will have the title to the headlines. Feedlots waited until Friday to start trading, and they received the higher money they were seeking. Small trade started at 208, then 210, then 212, with rumors of trade as high as 214 in the country. The futures took out the all-time high of 199.825 on Wednesday, then broke the $200 level for the first time and haven’t looked back. Since the first of the year, February cattle have gained $13.175/cwt in 16 sessions. Weights continue to climb and will continue to look worse than normal on a year-over-year basis due to the winter storm a year ago. Overall, the funds are in control of the cattle complex, now holding massive long positions and willing to defend at all costs, along with cash fundamentals enticing new buying. Cattle on Feed numbers were released this afternoon, showing Cattle on Feed at 99%, Placements at 97% and Marketings at 101%. Placement was close to 5% below the average guess and below the low end of the guess, while On Feed and Marketing numbers were right on the average guess.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures continue to notch out new contract highs. The most active April contract posted new highs both of the final 2 days of this week. Rumors of the Mexican border being opened to feeder cattle imports continue to swirl, but the official reopening date continues to get pushed back. It feels to me that traders are very aware and are keeping a close eye on this topic, but until there is a resolution in place, the funds continue to add to their record-long position. Cash feeders are now moving sideways with the rally we have seen in the corn market, but cattle futures are providing support. Single-day index values for the last 2 days have been 280.01 and 279.90 respectively. January Feeders will expire at noon on Thursday, January 30, and the index and futures will need to be in line by then.
Lean Hogs: After starting the week sharply lower on Tuesday, Lean Hog futures traded mostly sideways but found some recovery to finish the week. Index values continue to work mildly higher, along with a cutout market that is also supported. The cold storage report shared this afternoon shows bellies in cold storage at 61% of a year ago and 152% of a month ago. Overall, pork in storage is down 6% from a year ago and up 2% on the month.
Corn: Futures markets traded up to the $5 mark this week with May and July contracts trading through. Limited buying support was found at those levels and futures finished the week back below $5 in all months. Argentina reduced their export tax by 7%, and we will likely see more corn exports flowing out of the country as a result. Ethanol production in the U.S. was up 4K million barrels per day compared to last week. Year to date, production is 3.8% above a year ago, which is needed to meet the USDA estimate that has been set. Cash basis continues to fade with the rally in the futures along with aggressive farmer selling.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
March
485.75
4.00
CHI Wheat
March
543.75
10.50
KC Wheat
March
569.25
11.50
MN Wheat
March
594.00
9.50
Soybeans
March
1054.75
9.75
Soy Oil
March
45.25
0.24
Soy Meal
March
304.00
11.30
Live Cattle
April
203.025
2.300
Feeder Cattle
March
276.575
2.500
Lean Hogs
April
88.200
1.000
Crude Oil
March
74.78
0.16
Ch Cutout
328.27
2.19
Sel Cutout
316.13
1.08
Feeder Index
278.3
0.75
Pork Cutout
91.77
1.60
Dollar Index
107.46
0.587
DOW
44,393
171
National Corn Basis
-33.07
0.54
National Bean Basis
-62.09
0.64
Dates to Remember
Jan 30- January Feeder Cattle Expiration
Jan 31- Cattle Inventory
Feb 7- February Live Cattle Option Expiration
Feb 11- WASDE Report
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
82.300
81.125
1.175
73.900
8.400
National Cash
82.25
80.24
2.01
53.10
29.15
Index
81.93
81.19
0.74
69.67
12.26
Cutout
91.77
90.39
1.38
88.80
2.97
IA/SMN Cash
81.78
80.57
1.21
54.01
27.77
IA/SMN Weights
291.70
292.20
0.50
292.10
0.40
Slaughter
2,477,000
2,627,000
150,000
2,688,319
211,319
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
208-212
203.76
3-7 Higher
174.21
35.79
South Cash
201-202
201.00
Steady to 1 Higher
175.85
26.15
North Steer Basis
8.00
8.40
0.40
-0.26
8.26
Choice Boxes
328.77
333.82
5.05
299.50
29.27
Select Boxes
316.12
321.45
5.33
287.24
28.88
Spread
12.64
12.37
0.27
12.26
0.38
Carcass Weights
882
881
1
838
44
Slaughter
599,000
603,000
4,000
614,786
15,786
FC Index
278.30
278.31
0.01
230.21
48.09
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
201-202
$201.00
$174.98
KS
201-202
$200.98
$174.21
NE
208-212
$203.76
$175.85
IA/MN
208-212
$204.66
$175.82
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/21/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
148,466
1,045
-177,922
5,093
382,298
1,064
Feeder Cattle
29,375
626
-11,003
341
81,916
703
Lean Hogs
92,150
11,448
-148,379
5,076
300,622
444
Corn
311,678
19,450
-590,251
49,487
1,989,088
31,537
Soybeans
40,330
5,497
-136,570
16,412
860,773
12,112
Live Cattle Markets
Futures broke through the all-time high of 199.825 this week, then surpassed the 200.00 level. Not much to go on for upside chart resistance. $205 and $210 may offer phycological resistance and long-term charts show a little resistance just over $210.00.
Feeder Cattle Markets
New contract highs across all months again this week. Front months will be kept in check with cash and index levels. $280.00 is the next level for feeders to hurdle.
Lean Hogs Markets
April futures settled the week back above the 20-Day MA. Managed money should find some assurance being above this line again. 50-Day MA at 88.925 will be the first resistance level.
Corn Markets
March corn futures traded through resistance of 488 early in the week. 504 1/2 is the next line of resistance. 480 and then 473-474 is bottom side support.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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1/24/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: The cash cattle market continues to surprise traders, and the futures market has no choice but to play catch up. Early trade in the south at 201 gave way to 202 trade later in the week, but the north will have the title to the headlines. Feedlots waited until Friday to start trading, and they received the higher money they were seeking. Small trade started at 208, then 210, then 212, with rumors of trade as high as 214 in the country. The futures took out the all-time high of 199.825 on Wednesday, then broke the $200 level for the first time and haven’t looked back. Since the first of the year, February cattle have gained $13.175/cwt in 16 sessions. Weights continue to climb and will continue to look worse than normal on a year-over-year basis due to the winter storm a year ago. Overall, the funds are in control of the cattle complex, now holding massive long positions and willing to defend at all costs, along with cash fundamentals enticing new buying. Cattle on Feed numbers were released this afternoon, showing Cattle on Feed at 99%, Placements at 97% and Marketings at 101%. Placement was close to 5% below the average guess and below the low end of the guess, while On Feed and Marketing numbers were right on the average guess.
Feeder Cattle: Feeder cattle futures continue to notch out new contract highs. The most active April contract posted new highs both of the final 2 days of this week. Rumors of the Mexican border being opened to feeder cattle imports continue to swirl, but the official reopening date continues to get pushed back. It feels to me that traders are very aware and are keeping a close eye on this topic, but until there is a resolution in place, the funds continue to add to their record-long position. Cash feeders are now moving sideways with the rally we have seen in the corn market, but cattle futures are providing support. Single-day index values for the last 2 days have been 280.01 and 279.90 respectively. January Feeders will expire at noon on Thursday, January 30, and the index and futures will need to be in line by then.
Lean Hogs: After starting the week sharply lower on Tuesday, Lean Hog futures traded mostly sideways but found some recovery to finish the week. Index values continue to work mildly higher, along with a cutout market that is also supported. The cold storage report shared this afternoon shows bellies in cold storage at 61% of a year ago and 152% of a month ago. Overall, pork in storage is down 6% from a year ago and up 2% on the month.
Corn: Futures markets traded up to the $5 mark this week with May and July contracts trading through. Limited buying support was found at those levels and futures finished the week back below $5 in all months. Argentina reduced their export tax by 7%, and we will likely see more corn exports flowing out of the country as a result. Ethanol production in the U.S. was up 4K million barrels per day compared to last week. Year to date, production is 3.8% above a year ago, which is needed to meet the USDA estimate that has been set. Cash basis continues to fade with the rally in the futures along with aggressive farmer selling.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
Jan 30- January Feeder Cattle Expiration
Jan 31- Cattle Inventory
Feb 7- February Live Cattle Option Expiration
Feb 11- WASDE Report
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 1/21/2025
Live Cattle Markets
Futures broke through the all-time high of 199.825 this week, then surpassed the 200.00 level. Not much to go on for upside chart resistance. $205 and $210 may offer phycological resistance and long-term charts show a little resistance just over $210.00.
Feeder Cattle Markets
New contract highs across all months again this week. Front months will be kept in check with cash and index levels. $280.00 is the next level for feeders to hurdle.
Lean Hogs Markets
April futures settled the week back above the 20-Day MA. Managed money should find some assurance being above this line again. 50-Day MA at 88.925 will be the first resistance level.
Corn Markets
March corn futures traded through resistance of 488 early in the week. 504 1/2 is the next line of resistance. 480 and then 473-474 is bottom side support.