1/30/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded sharply higher in the nearby contracts this morning but finished sharply lower in the deferred contracts. Cash cattle traded sharply higher this week and exceeded most expectations for the week. Cattle began to trade at 238 in the North this morning and that gave way to 240 and 241 with rumors of 242 being paid as well. There were two major packers that needed cattle and were having to compete to get cattle bought which led to the higher market. The South traded at mainly 240 but did trade some cattle at 241. Boxed beef was mixed this week as the choice/select spread has again narrowed. Choice was quoted at $366.44 this morning which is down $2.26 on the week while select is at $363.00 and up $1.70 this week. The colder winter weather has kept cattle weights steady over the past few weeks. Steer and heifer weights were down two pounds this week but are still 27 pounds heavier than a year ago. Today’s cattle inventory report will be viewed as friendly to the market and confirms that tight supplies of cattle will remain into the future despite more heifer retention than a year ago.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished the month sharply lower on what appeared to be fund liquidation ahead of today’s Cattle Inventory Report. The Feeder Cattle complex never found life today even when the Live Cattle futures were sharply higher. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues its move sharply higher and is currently at $370.69 through Thursday’s sales and is now at the highest level since October 22, and a new high for the current move. This week’s index values were on limited numbers as many sales in the South were cancelled due to the winter weather. Over the next two weeks, the sale barns in the South will see high volumes of Feeder Cattle as they sell a normal week’s worth of cattle plus all of last week’s cattle. The increased volume in the South will keep the Feeder Cattle index under pressure. Today’s Cattle Inventory Report showed the annual calf crop down 1.6% compared to a year ago and 0.9% below the average guess. Heifers kept as replacements were up 0.9% but 0.8% below the average guess ahead of the report.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures posted new contract highs again this week in every contract except the nearby February. Wednesday morning the futures gapped lower and have yet to fill that gap as the last three days have been relatively tight trading ranges. Currently, the Lean Hog index is at $85.72, $1.53 below the February futures contract with two weeks until expiration. Weekly export sales were very good for pork this week at 56,000 tonnes, an 18-month high and nearly double of the average of weekly sales. Mexico accounted for half of the exports while China was also a significant buyer. The pork cutout continues its rangebound trade and is currently at $93.43 and is the lowest in over two weeks. The cutout traded as high as $97.26 early this week, but has returned to the $93-95 range that it has become comfortable in.

Corn: Corn futures finished the day lower but did recover from the lows set earlier in the session. Technical resistance along with lack of positive news have added pressure to the markets everyday this week and pushed the futures to new lows for the week this afternoon. The 20-day MA lies just above many of these contracts and will be the first line of resistance that needs to be taken out in order to sustain a move higher. Export sales for the week were again near the upper end of estimates with Japan, Mexico, and Columbia being the top buyers. The U.S. continues to run ahead of the USDA pace needed to get to the current export goal. The outside markets continue to weigh on the grain markets as the metal markets have become irrational and the U.S. dollar index has become volatile.