10/10/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Cash trade took all week to develop with the feedlots holding out for higher money and that is what came late in the day on Friday. Cattle traded at 362 on a dressed basis in Nebraska this morning and 235 on a live basis later in the day. The futures market rallied from over $2 lower this morning to finish the day higher as a result of the cash news. The nearby October contract led the futures complex and finished the day 3.450 higher as it continues to align with the current cash market. Feedlots in the North were hoping for an even basis this week and after the cash market traded higher, the October contract followed suit and erased all of the basis gain. The South has not traded yet this week as they were asking for 237 to begin the week and are currently bid 235. There was no slaughter data from the USDA again this week due to the government shutdown. Weights continue to be heavier than a year ago as feedlots feed cattle longer and have been fighting the lower cash market and the basis flip that has occurred over the past month. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice being quoted $1.05 higher at $366.27 and select $2.67 higher at $347.00. This is the first week that boxed beef will show a weekly gain since the end of August. Seasonally, the choice cutout stabilizes and moves sideways to higher through the end of the year as holiday demand stabilizes prices.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures finished higher all five days this week and extended the streak to six consecutive days. The most active November contract has added 25.400/cwt over the course of the previous six days and set a new all-time record high today. It has been a week for the record books as the Feeder Cattle complex pushed to new contract highs each of the final three days this week, and the buying continued until the close every day. The November contract has averaged a gain of 4.100/cwt per day this week. The CME Feeder Cattle index has also posted a new record high today at $367.92. Sale barns across the U.S. continue to set new records every day as demand remains strong and numbers of available Feeder Cattle are tight. The Mexican border remains closed and there is no timeline for a reopening.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs fell victim to seasonal pressure this week as the nearby contracts finished lower all five days. The December contract lost 3.725 this week and settled today at 84.025. The pork cutout has dropped $11.00 in the last 11 days and is currently at $102.64. With the grilling season behind us, the primal cuts have traded lower, hurting the average carcass price. The cash hog price has also dropped to its lowest level since May, as the national cash price was quoted at $96.33 yesterday afternoon. Last week’s Iowa/Southern Minnesota average hog weights were 289 pounds, up from the previous week of 287.9, and a year ago of 284.8. We will continue to see those weights increase as we continue into the fall. Today’s Lean Hog index is quoted at $100.08 which is down $2.76 from where we started the week, narrowing the gap between the October futures to a premium of $3.08.

Corn: December Corn finished lower each of the last two days after failing to trade through the 20-day MA. Technical resistance has been the 20-day MA the past few weeks and the contract has not been able to close above that line so far in the month of October. The grain markets as a whole continues to search for news as most government reports are on hold. This morning, President Trump said that there is no reason to meet with China later this month and sent the entire grain complex lower. The industry is waiting for China to buy U.S. soybeans, and comments like this morning’s further delay the chance of that happening. Crude oil finished the day under $60/barrel today which will not benefit ethanol demand. Ethanol demand has been strong, along with export demand, keeping the U.S. corn carryout at a manageable level. Feed demand has been reduced with the lower cattle and hog numbers.