Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to new all-time highs and pushed through the 250.000 level for the first time ever this morning. The deferred contracts continue to be the leaders of the Live Cattle complex as the nearby contracts remain closer to the current cash market. Last week’s cash cattle market was mainly 234-235 in the North, while the South traded very few cattle and showed an average of 235 in Kansas. Total negotiated trade volume for the southern states was 2,084 head which is well below the normal head counts that are usually traded in a week. Boxed beef continues to be stable in this area. Historically, boxed beef works higher during the month of October and into the end of the year. This year has seen a slight recovery but has been more sideways than higher. This morning, choice was $0.70 higher to $364.61 and select was $0.67 higher at $350.42. The choice/select spread has narrowed to $14.19. A tight choice/select spread typically indicates poor demand. That is most likely not the case this year as many news articles are reporting beef demand is currently at a 40-year high. The main focus within the Live Cattle complex has been fund buying. With the historic move higher over the last 10 days, there is no other explanation than fund buying. Without the CFTC report every week due to the government shutdown, we do not know the current length that the managed money has, but it is larger than the last report of just under 125,000 contracts.
Feeder Cattle: The Feeder Cattle complex also traded to new all-time record highs today as the most active November contract reached 382.800 today. This extends the streak of higher closes to eight consecutive days while the November contract has posted a new contract high five days in a row. Over the course of the last eight trading sessions, November has added 31.450/cwt from the low to today’s high. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to lag the futures market but has increased as well. Today’s release showed a gain of $4.02 to $373.02 through Monday’s sales. Fund buying has been the reason that the Feeder Cattle futures have put together this historic run the past two weeks. Tight supplies of Feeder Cattle remain in the country, and with no timeline for the reopening of the Mexican border, the short supplies look to persist well into 2026.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures continue to fall victim to seasonal pressure and have finished lower 10 of the last 12 trading sessions. The December contract has now become the lead month and closed 1.700 lower at 83.150. The October contract expired today at 97.475 which is currently 1.100 under the Lean Hog index. The pork cutout continues to hold above the $100 mark as the morning report was quoted $0.32 higher at $103.91, with the bellies gaining $5.77. The port fees for the U.S. and China both go into effect today as the trade war looms on. China’s hog production has seen a significant increase after recovering from African Swine Fever. However, even if the trade war wasn’t taking place, China wouldn’t be a customer of U.S. pork products.
Corn: December Corn futures finished the day higher after three consecutive down days. Since the open on October 9, the December contract has lost 14 cents from the high to this morning’s low. The December contract did find technical support at 410 today. Resistance levels include the 50-day MA of 415 1/4 and then the 100-day MA of 422. The grain markets continue to search for answers as President Trump announced that there will be no meeting with South Korea later this month. With no WASDE or CFTC reports due to the government shutdown, traders are making assumptions about the market and current supply and demand. With the uncertainty, the Corn market will most likely stay rangebound until news or reports are released as traders limit their risk. Soybeans continued with another down day as they are suppressed by the China news of port fees going into effect today. The Soybean complex has been a negative influence on the Corn market for the past few weeks.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Dec
413.00
2.25
CHI Wheat
Dec
498.50
3.50
KC Wheat
Dec
488.50
7.25
Soybeans
Nov
1006.50
1.25
Soy Oil
Dec
50.57
0.03
Soy Meal
Dec
274.30
0.20
Live Cattle
Oct
241.825
1.250
Feeder Cattle
Oct
380.175
4.675
Lean Hogs
Dec
83.150
1.700
Crude Oil
Nov
58.82
0.67
Ch Cutout
364.61
0.70
Sel Cutout
350.42
0.67
Feeder Index
373.02
4.02
Pork Cutout
103.59
0.83
Dollar Index
99.041
0.2280
DOW
46,477
409
National Corn Basis
-40.83
0.45
National Bean Basis
-75.53
0.29
Dates to Remember
October 14- October Lean Hog Expiration
October 24- Cattle on Feed Report (Pending)
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
97.475
97.850
0.375
75.800
21.675
National Cash
92.29
99.39
7.10
74.47
17.82
Index
98.57
102.02
3.45
84.08
14.49
Cutout
103.59
107.35
3.76
94.97
8.62
IA/SMN Cash
92.43
99.35
6.92
74.30
18.13
IA/SMN Weights
289.00
287.90
1.10
284.80
4.20
Slaughter
2,577,000
2,602,000
25,000
2,583,066
6,066
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
234.44
187.79
South Cash
235.00
187.91
North Steer Basis
-2.50
0.18
Choice Boxes
364.61
364.53
0.08
313.32
51.29
Select Boxes
350.42
348.91
1.52
289.10
61.32
Spread
14.19
15.62
1.43
24.22
10.03
Carcass Weights
860
Slaughter
547,000
562,000
15,000
585,337
38,337
FC Index
373.02
364.24
8.78
250.61
122.41
Cash Cattle Markets
TX/OK/NM
$231.86
$187.84
KS
$235.00
$187.91
NE
$234.44
$187.79
IA/MN
$233.96
$187.45
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 9/23/2025
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
124,903
2,844
-161,328
548
363,401
1,438
Feeder Cattle
24,327
1,564
-12,803
82
84,119
543
Lean Hogs
142,444
186
-201,313
8,394
352,067
2,552
Corn
-94,675
14,624
-97,598
10,692
1,655,388
15,821
Soybeans
-29,302
31,589
-92,440
27,234
975,806
5,810
Live Cattle Markets
December Live Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at that high of 246.975. Support is at 237.275 followed by the 20-day MA of 237.250.
Feeder Cattle Markets
November Feeder Cattle posted a new all-time record high today. Resistance is at that high of 382.800. Support is at 368.600 followed by the 20-day MA of 360.400.
Lean Hogs Markets
December Lean Hogs pushed to new lows for the move today. Support is at 81.825 and then 81.075. Resistance is at the gap left this morning at 84.450 and then 85.500.
Corn Markets
December Corn traded to new monthly lows today. Support is at that low of 409 1/4 followed by 403 1/2. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 420 1/4 and then 424 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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10/14/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded to new all-time highs and pushed through the 250.000 level for the first time ever this morning. The deferred contracts continue to be the leaders of the Live Cattle complex as the nearby contracts remain closer to the current cash market. Last week’s cash cattle market was mainly 234-235 in the North, while the South traded very few cattle and showed an average of 235 in Kansas. Total negotiated trade volume for the southern states was 2,084 head which is well below the normal head counts that are usually traded in a week. Boxed beef continues to be stable in this area. Historically, boxed beef works higher during the month of October and into the end of the year. This year has seen a slight recovery but has been more sideways than higher. This morning, choice was $0.70 higher to $364.61 and select was $0.67 higher at $350.42. The choice/select spread has narrowed to $14.19. A tight choice/select spread typically indicates poor demand. That is most likely not the case this year as many news articles are reporting beef demand is currently at a 40-year high. The main focus within the Live Cattle complex has been fund buying. With the historic move higher over the last 10 days, there is no other explanation than fund buying. Without the CFTC report every week due to the government shutdown, we do not know the current length that the managed money has, but it is larger than the last report of just under 125,000 contracts.
Feeder Cattle: The Feeder Cattle complex also traded to new all-time record highs today as the most active November contract reached 382.800 today. This extends the streak of higher closes to eight consecutive days while the November contract has posted a new contract high five days in a row. Over the course of the last eight trading sessions, November has added 31.450/cwt from the low to today’s high. The CME Feeder Cattle index continues to lag the futures market but has increased as well. Today’s release showed a gain of $4.02 to $373.02 through Monday’s sales. Fund buying has been the reason that the Feeder Cattle futures have put together this historic run the past two weeks. Tight supplies of Feeder Cattle remain in the country, and with no timeline for the reopening of the Mexican border, the short supplies look to persist well into 2026.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures continue to fall victim to seasonal pressure and have finished lower 10 of the last 12 trading sessions. The December contract has now become the lead month and closed 1.700 lower at 83.150. The October contract expired today at 97.475 which is currently 1.100 under the Lean Hog index. The pork cutout continues to hold above the $100 mark as the morning report was quoted $0.32 higher at $103.91, with the bellies gaining $5.77. The port fees for the U.S. and China both go into effect today as the trade war looms on. China’s hog production has seen a significant increase after recovering from African Swine Fever. However, even if the trade war wasn’t taking place, China wouldn’t be a customer of U.S. pork products.
Corn: December Corn futures finished the day higher after three consecutive down days. Since the open on October 9, the December contract has lost 14 cents from the high to this morning’s low. The December contract did find technical support at 410 today. Resistance levels include the 50-day MA of 415 1/4 and then the 100-day MA of 422. The grain markets continue to search for answers as President Trump announced that there will be no meeting with South Korea later this month. With no WASDE or CFTC reports due to the government shutdown, traders are making assumptions about the market and current supply and demand. With the uncertainty, the Corn market will most likely stay rangebound until news or reports are released as traders limit their risk. Soybeans continued with another down day as they are suppressed by the China news of port fees going into effect today. The Soybean complex has been a negative influence on the Corn market for the past few weeks.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
October 14- October Lean Hog Expiration
October 24- Cattle on Feed Report (Pending)
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 9/23/2025
Live Cattle Markets
December Live Cattle posted a new contract high today. Resistance is at that high of 246.975. Support is at 237.275 followed by the 20-day MA of 237.250.
Feeder Cattle Markets
November Feeder Cattle posted a new all-time record high today. Resistance is at that high of 382.800. Support is at 368.600 followed by the 20-day MA of 360.400.
Lean Hogs Markets
December Lean Hogs pushed to new lows for the move today. Support is at 81.825 and then 81.075. Resistance is at the gap left this morning at 84.450 and then 85.500.
Corn Markets
December Corn traded to new monthly lows today. Support is at that low of 409 1/4 followed by 403 1/2. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 420 1/4 and then 424 1/2.