10/17/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures traded sharply lower all day after President Trump announced “I think we have a deal that’s going to bring beef prices down.” No one is sure how he is going to accomplish this, but the futures do not like uncertainty and negative headlines. The common thought across the beef complex is President Trump will relax the 50% tariff on Brazil that has made it economically impossible for Brazil to sell the U.S. their beef, or during communications with the President of Argentina this week the two struck some sort of deal to increase imports from the country. President Trump made comments about high beef prices a few months ago but nothing ended up happening at that time. No matter what the plan is, the futures did not like the news and erased all of their gains from the previous five days. Cash cattle traded higher again this week as feedlots looked to minimize the negative basis that has taken over the market the past month. Most of the cattle in the North traded at 240 on Thursday with 241 in Iowa on Friday. The South traded at 240 as well. Boxed beef was higher this morning with choice up $0.89 to $367.00 and select was $1.43 higher at $350.36. This is the second week in a row that choice boxes will finish higher. This week choice only gained $0.73, but is much better then the $10+ losses that were seen for four consecutive weeks during September. The Live Cattle complex will have expanded limits of 10.750/cwt on Monday.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures opened sharply lower and quickly found limit lower. Within the first half hour of today’s trade, all contracts except the October were locked down the 9.250/cwt limit and did not leave for the remainder of the day. The comments from President Trump do not directly impact the Feeder Cattle fundamentals like it does Live Cattle, but will decrease the amount of money feedlots can spend on Feeder Cattle to fill their pens. After today’s lower close, the November contract will show a loss of 4.200 for the week, but the settlement is just 1.675 below the low from Monday. Wednesday, the three nearby contracts finished the day fractionally lower and was the first lower finish in nine days. The March and further deferred contracts finished higher that day, and today ended their streak of ten consecutive higher closes which resulted in a gain of over 35.000/cwt.  The CME Feeder Cattle index is currently at $376.51 up $1.41 on the day and at an all-time record high. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to set new records across all classes of cattle across the entire country. Today’s futures action will definitely slow down the cash Feeder Cattle, but the index remains nearly $125 above a year ago at this time. Feeder Cattle futures will have expanded limits of 13.750/cwt on Monday.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures traded in an extremely tight range today and finished the day mixed. All of the Lean Hog contracts held within a dollar range today and some were as tight as .700/cwt. The December contract has now finished lower 12 of the last 15 days as the Lean Hog index and cash hogs continue to work lower. The pork cutout was fractionally higher yesterday at $102.17, but continues to hold above the $100 mark. Open interest within the Lean Hog complex continues to decrease on what appears to be long fund liquidation. Without the CFTC Reports it is hard to say what the current position of the managed money is right now, but with the futures action the last few weeks, and open interest decreasing over 20,000 contracts since the Hogs and Pigs Report, the managed money has definitely decreased their long position.

Corn: December Corn futures rebounded this week after finding strong support at 410 on Tuesday. The market pushed higher through midweek, breaking above the 10, 20, 50 and 100-day MA during Wednesday and Thursday’s trade. Friday’s close above the 100-day MA of 421 1/4 has given traders renewed confidence to stay long in this market. The next key resistance level is at 431 1/4, the recent high from September 17. The trade developments between the U.S. and China, or the lack thereof, remain the leading influence on market sentiment. Ongoing speculation over potential policies, tariffs and trade deals has left traders uncertain about the market’s next direction. Weather has also played a role, as rains across parts of the Midwest slowed harvest progress this week. Basis values have firmed a few cents in several local regions due to harvest stoppage and at the Gulf, supported by new export business. In the ethanol sector, production edged higher to 1.074 million barrels per day, up 3,000 barrels from the previous week and slightly above levels from a year ago. Ethanol stocks remain historically tight for mid-October. Meanwhile, soybean crush data for September came in at 197.9 million bushels, up 20.6 million from last year and 11.9 million from August. The soybean complex remains rangebound, with any breakout potential dependent on future trade headlines with the U.S. and China.