10/21/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have finished higher both days this week as beef remains at the front of many national headlines. Typically, having the cattle market or beef markets all over the news is not a good thing for cattle prices, but so far this week, the futures market has shed off the publicity. President Trump and Secretary Rollins continue to be interviewed and answer questions surrounding the comments that the president made on Thursday afternoon about what his plan is to lower beef prices. So far, all of their answers have pointed to a deal with Argentina and a plan to import beef from the country. In 2024, Argentina was number ten on the list of countries that the U.S. imported beef from. Their beef supply would not make a huge impact to the supply of beef in the U.S. and would do little to decrease the overall price of beef at the grocery store. This morning boxed beef was mixed with choice $2.76 higher at $371.94 while select was $1.35 lower at $352.11. The choice/select spread has widened out to $19.83 as retailers begin to buy for holiday demand. Cash cattle have been quiet so far this week as there have been no bids and the feedlots have yet to price cattle. Most feedlots will be looking for an even basis against the October board, which today, would make cash prices $4 higher than a week ago.

Feeder Cattle: Feeder Cattle futures have also traded higher to start this week after finishing last week limit lower. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to set new records across the country and that has kept the CME Feeder Cattle index supported. Last week, the index posted a new all-time record at $376.51 as Live Cattle futures pushed to new contract highs. The last two days have seen a lower index quote but many sale barns are still seeing record prices for the cattle they are selling. Today, the Feeder Cattle index was quoted at $373.11, which is $3.04 lower, but still above the same time a week ago. Feeder Cattle futures have not performed as well as the Live Cattle futures this week, but the cattle crush remains at all-time lows as the Feeder Cattle futures have outperformed the Live Cattle futures and Corn market throughout 2025.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures started the week lower but were able to finish higher across the complex today. The December contract led the way and finished 1.200 higher, closing at 83.275. Today’s close puts the December contract at a $12.30 discount to the current Lean Hog index which continues to trend lower. The pork cutout remains above the $100 mark and was quoted at $101.99 this morning. We will continue to see packers run high slaughter numbers into the end of the year which will keep pressure on the cutout market. The national cash price dipped below $90 yesterday afternoon and has lost $3.00 in a week’s time. The 5-year average cash hog price is in the mid $70s for this time of year, therefore a $90 cash price shows there is not an abundance of hogs ready for market.

Corn: December Corn finished lower today for the first time in six days, closing at 419 3/4 today, just below the 100-day MA. This level remains a key area of support before 410 which is the recent low. Upside resistance will be at 431 1/4, which has been the highest level the December contract has traded since July 7. Since early September, the December contract has traded in a tight 22-cent range. The ongoing government shutdown has limited the flow of new data, keeping traders cautious with reduced market visibility. According to outside estimates, the managed money were buyers of Corn on Friday, reducing their net short position by around 3,000 contracts. While official crop progress reports are not being released, industry predictions show harvest is on schedule, with much of western Iowa and eastern Nebraska expected to wrap up within the next week or two. Corn and soybeans have been better supported this week. November soybeans have rallied 32 cents in the last four trading days, pushing back above the 1030 level. Optimism surrounding U.S. and China trade discussions has given the market some life as President Trump continues to make comments about potential Chinese purchases. The market will need to see actual purchases from China to prove the headlines are true before a sustained rally can take place.