10/27/2026 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures started the day higher but spent the majority of the day lower. Yesterday’s open has essentially set the high for the week up to this point after Friday afternoon’s friendly Cattle on Feed Report. A friendly report had been baked into the market for over a week leading up to Friday, so the sluggish start to the week does not come as a huge surprise. The report showed cattle on feed slightly lower than a year ago while the trade was expecting a small increase. This report also showed the breakdown of steers and heifers on feed. Steers accounted for 62% of the cattle on feed which is the same as a year ago while heifers were 38% of the total and 1% less compared to last year. This would indicate there is a small bit of heifer retention taking place but it is not showing up in a big way. Cash trade waited until after the Cattle on Feed Report last week but was higher across all regions. The South traded at 230 which would be up $2 compared to the week prior and the North traded at mainly 227. Boxed beef has had a good start to the week after a sluggish end to last week. This morning choice was $4.15 higher at $373.59 and $7.80 higher so far this week. Select also gained $2.55 to $360.11 and is up $7.42 on the week. Last week’s Cold Storage Report showed beef nearly unchanged compared to a month and year ago. Total beef in cold storage is down 0.7% compared to last year and 1.2% less than last month but is nearly 10% less than the 5-year average. Hopes for cash trade this week are higher as the October futures expire. The October/December spread has traded back down to within a buck after trading over $4.000 less than a month ago. This leaves little difference in basis levels no matter what month the feedlots are hedged in.

Feeder Cattle: October Feeder Cattle have now gained $6.700 over the past three trading sessions and have gained over $30 since September 18. Live Cattle futures gaining nearly $20.000/cwt along with Corn losing nearly a dollar a bushel have pushed the Feeder Cattle index higher, forcing the contract to play catch up. On September 18 the October contract was at nearly a $20.000/ discount to the Feeder Cattle index and as of the close today is a $2.13 premium. October will expire on Thursday at noon and will need to be close to the cash index at its time of expiration. The bull spreads were in full force today with October finishing $2.90 higher, November $1.400 higher, January $1.100 higher and all of the further out deferred contracts finishing the day just slightly higher. Cash Feeder Cattle continue to sell better than the crush would suggest due optimism about tight numbers and higher prices for cattle in the first quarter of next year, helping feedlots push their bids. Yesterday, 3,000 head of Feeder Cattle passed through the three open Mexican ports which is the largest single day total of 2026. Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed report confirmed the tight numbers of available Feeder Cattle and showed the third month in a row of record small placements into feedlots. Today, the CME Feeder Cattle index was quoted $2.12 higher at $350.67. This is up $8.51 since a week ago.

Lean Hogs: Lean Hogs suffered another large move lower during today’s trade, with futures ending down $1.925 to $2.65 across the board. December closed at $62.025 after failing to hold the support of $65.00 on Monday’s trade. This is the lowest close on the front month futures since September of 2020. The push lower continues to be justified with sliding cash and pork-cutout prices. The Pork Cut-Out printed $0.29 lower yesterday at $73.800. Currently the Belly market is $20 lower than the lowest price in the last 10-years, and $80 off the highs. As discussed multiple times before, change does not happen until we see more demand (especially domestically) to the pork products. In the cash market, the national cash average came in yesterday at $59.46, down $7.94 from the previous day, and $2.50 lower than where the board closed. Long-term charts hope the market can find support in the $60-$65 range, if not there is risk into the $50 range.

Corn: December Corn saw another soft session, finding a low at 448 1/2 before closing only 1/4 cent off that low. If immediate support at today’s lows fails to hold, the trade will look toward the July consolidation area around 444. Though the market appears comfortable in oversold territory, it is offering an opportunity for those looking to add length. Geopolitical news has dominated the soybean narrative to start the week. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term in a close runoff against conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, sending the Brazilian real into a sharp selloff and, in theory, weakening demand for U.S. grains. Beans set a new recent low in Monday’s session following the news, and today the complex continued its fight to hold the 100-day moving average. On harvest progress, USDA puts soybeans at 79% complete, up 15 points from last week, while corn is 60% complete, up 16 points. Late Friday, USDA issued a correction to its September Crop Production estimate for U.S. corn due to data errors in the Nebraska ears-per-acre count. The October 9 estimate, the most recent report, was left unchanged. The trade expects no change in monetary policy in tomorrow’s announcement and will look to the December Fed meeting for the final rate change of the year.