10/3/2025 Market Commentary

Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures finished the week higher after another week of lower cash trade. Cash trade in the North was mainly 230 on a live basis and 360 on a dressed basis. The South traded a few cattle at 233 yesterday but most feedlots are asking for more money headed into the weekend. Boxed beef was lower again this week and has now surpassed most expectations as to how low it could trade. This morning choice was $0.27 lower at $362.95 and finished the week $9.52 lower. Select was $2.19 higher at $345.59, but $7.61 lower than a week ago. Slaughter this week was estimated at 557,000 head which is a 2,000 head improvement from a week ago, but nearly 55,000 less than the same week a year ago. Slaughter data was not released this week due to the government shutdown but the over past weeks carcass weights have been increasing. It is beginning to feel like the North is losing the currentness of market-ready cattle that they were able to hold for the better part of 2025. With the cash price drifting over $15 lower over the past six weeks, and the basis completely being erased, many feedlots are beginning to fight the market, and have no incentive to pull cattle ahead to keep weight off of the market.

Feeder Cattle: The CME Feeder Cattle index has moved over $6 lower throughout the course of this week as cash Feeder Cattle have plateaued. As we look back on the last year, Feeder Cattle prices have remained higher than the Live Cattle futures and Corn market would suggest. This is mostly due to the record basis that feedlots have enjoyed when selling fat cattle. Many feedlots were buying cattle that had a breakeven well above the futures market, but with the basis that had been seen, that was the only way to keep the pens full. Now that the basis has been completely erased, Feeder Cattle in the sale barns have failed to reach new highs. This has affected the bigger yearling type cattle first, as those cattle will have less days on feed and are closer to a harvest date. Open interest again rose above 80,000 contracts after yesterday’s trade. In the middle of the week, open interest fell below the 80,000 contract mark for the first time since the beginning of June.

Lean Hogs: Today was the first day this week that all of the Lean Hog contracts finished higher. The October contract closed 0.30 higher at 98.975 which is still 4.725 below the Lean Hog index. The Lean Hog index has been on a downward trend all week, closing the week at $103.70. From the close on last Friday, the December contract has lost 3.750, finishing today at 87.300. The pork cutout market has come under pressure as well, as it has seen a $6.00 decline this week. Along with the cutout, the national cash hog price fell under $100.00 this morning as the negotiated report showed the national average at $98.74. October expires on October 14 and if we continue to see the pressure on the cutout and cash hog price, the index will continue to decline, narrowing the gap between the October contract month.

Corn: Corn futures finished the week lower after a solid recovery in the middle of the week. Wednesday the futures plunged below technical support areas but battled back to finish higher on the day. That bar on the charts now looks somewhat like a blow off bottom and pushed the futures back to the 20-day MA. Currently, the Corn futures look to trade between the 20- and 50-day MA until some news hits the market to drive it in either direction. News within the Corn complex is slower than normal. With the current government shutdown in place, many reports are not being released. The main one within the grain complex is the export information. Flash sale reports and export inspections are not being released, giving the market less news to trade upon. The weekly CFTC report will also be delayed until the government is back open.