Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have gained $3.250/cwt the first two days of this week following last week’s disappointing cash trade. The deferred contracts pushed back above the 20-day MA to finish last week and gave the Live Cattle complex a technical boost to begin the week. Cash this week has been quiet up to this point with no bids or offers in the country. With the improved futures prices, the feedlots will be asking more money and hoping for at least steady with the October futures. The delivery period for the October contract began on Monday and there were no deliveries posted last night against the contract. With the cash averages last week near 230 in the North, this is definitely something to keep an eye on now that the futures have worked to an over $3 premium to that cash level. With the lower cash market and the basis flipping to negative, many feedlots will keep cattle on feed longer, increasing carcass weights and weekly beef production. Carcass weights are not being released due to the government shutdown, but the latest data that was released showed steer and heifer weights 16 pounds larger than a year ago and 36 pounds heavier than the 3-year average. This morning, boxed beef was higher with choice being quoted at $364.53, up $1.19 on the day and select was $0.94 higher at $348.91. Seasonally, boxed beef stabilizes in this time period and works sideways to higher through the holiday season.
Feeder Cattle: The Feeder Cattle futures have been the leader of the cattle complex to start the week and have now gained more than $11.000/cwt over the last three trading sessions. The April and further deferred contracts posted new contract highs today. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins posted on X that there was another case of New World Screwworm detected in Mexico. This case was 170 miles from the U.S. border which continues to feed the idea that the U.S. and Mexico are far from a timeline to reopen the border. While the Feeder Cattle futures rocketed higher in the final hour of trade yesterday before the announcement was made, the news must have been out to some of the traders. The CME Feeder Cattle index has recovered slightly over the past few days after falling nearly $6 in three days last week. Through Monday’s sales, the index is quoted at $364.24 and just $3.37 below the record high of $367.61.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures started the week with small losses in the nearby contracts and small gains in the deferred months on Monday. Today, all contract months closed lower with December losing 1.100 and February suffering the biggest loss of 1.275. The Lean Hog index is down $1.68 since last Friday currently at $102.02, but still at a $4.17 premium to the October futures which expire next Tuesday. With the government shutdown still in place we will not see the pork export data or the Commitment of Traders Report until the government resumes session. With the absence of these reports, the futures will rely heavily on what the pork cutout prices and cash hog prices trade at. The pork cutout is currently at $107.35, and cash hogs continue to trade under the $100 level. With new crop corn in the feed supply and favorable growing conditions, look for hog weights to start increasing rapidly, creating more hogs being available to the cash market.
Corn: Corn futures continue to be stuck in a sideways range just below the 20-day MA. The WASDE report that is scheduled for this Thursday is currently in jeopardy as the government shutdown will prevent this report from being released. Export inspections were released yesterday and showed another good week of Corn shipments. Total shipments were 63.0 million bushels for the week ending October 2. This was near the top end of the range of guesses and nearly 8.0 million bushels ahead of the 10-week average. The USDA crop progress data is also on hold with the current government shutdown, but private analyst Reuters has corn harvest at 29% complete nationally, which is a gain of 18% during the week. The Corn market continue to search for news and without the normal USDA reports, there is less news than normal. With harvest continuing to progress and the charts bumping their head on technical resistance, the Corn market has turned to a choppy sideways trade until there is news or a fundamental change to the market.
Closing Prices
Market
Month
Last
Change
Corn
Dec
419.75
2.00
CHI Wheat
Dec
506.75
6.00
KC Wheat
Dec
492.00
3.50
Soybeans
Nov
1022.00
4.25
Soy Oil
Dec
51.04
0.66
Soy Meal
Dec
276.90
0.20
Live Cattle
Oct
233.100
1.225
Feeder Cattle
Oct
365.500
3.400
Lean Hogs
Oct
97.850
0.475
Crude Oil
Nov
61.78
0.09
Ch Cutout
364.53
1.19
Sel Cutout
348.91
0.94
Feeder Index
364.24
0.77
Pork Cutout
107.35
0.95
Dollar Index
98.529
0.4200
DOW
46,536
158
National Corn Basis
-42.20
1.10
National Bean Basis
-79.75
0.02
Dates to Remember
October 9- WASDE Report (pending)
October 14- October Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
Lead Month Future
97.850
99.850
2.000
83.975
13.875
National Cash
99.39
102.44
3.05
76.68
22.71
Index
102.02
104.78
2.76
84.22
17.80
Cutout
107.35
112.22
4.87
96.05
11.30
IA/SMN Cash
99.35
102.06
2.71
76.65
22.70
IA/SMN Weights
287.90
287.00
0.90
284.20
3.70
Slaughter
2,602,000
2,530,000
72,000
2,606,371
4,371
Cattle Fundamentals
Current
One Week Ago
Change
One Year Ago
Change
North Cash
230.00
187.32
South Cash
232.86
186.73
North Steer Basis
-0.25
-0.43
Choice Boxes
364.53
370.63
6.10
305.93
58.60
Select Boxes
348.91
346.83
2.08
289.33
59.58
Spread
15.62
23.80
8.18
16.60
0.98
Carcass Weights
878
862
Slaughter
557,000
555,000
2,000
611,571
54,571
FC Index
364.24
365.33
1.09
247.48
116.76
Cash Cattle Markets
Region
This Week
Last Week
Last Year
TX/OK/NM
$232.73
$186.95
KS
$232.86
$186.73
NE
$230.00
$187.32
IA/MN
$229.81
$187.34
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 9/23/2023
Commodity
Current Managed Money
Change
Current Producer/Commercial
Change
Total OI
Total OI Change
Live Cattle
124,903
2,844
-161,328
548
366,282
125
Feeder Cattle
24,327
1,564
-12,803
82
82,687
937
Lean Hogs
142,444
186
-201,313
8,394
364,963
1,414
Corn
-94,675
14,624
-97,598
10,692
1,579,770
4,763
Soybeans
-29,302
31,589
-92,440
27,234
941,778
264
Live Cattle Markets
December Live Cattle finished back above the 20-day MA yesterday. Support is at the 20-day MA of 235.125 and then 232.450. Resistance is at 241.350.
Feeder Cattle Markets
October Feeder Cattle reached their highest level in over a month today. Resistance is at 367.150 and then the contract high of 369.375. Support is at the 20-day MA of 356.100 followed by 353.100.
Lean Hogs Markets
December Lean Hogs continue to hold at the 50-day MA. Support is at the 50-day MA of 86.100 and then 85.575. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 88.350.
Corn Markets
December Corn has failed to settle above the 20-day MA. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 422 1/2 followed by 428 1/4. Support is at the 50-day MA of 414 3/4 and then last week’s low of 410 1/2.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by Producers Commodities LLC, NFA ID: 0355787 and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures and futures options may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Producers Commodities LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Contact designated personnel from Producers Commodities LLC for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals.
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10/7/2025 Market Commentary
Live Cattle: Live Cattle futures have gained $3.250/cwt the first two days of this week following last week’s disappointing cash trade. The deferred contracts pushed back above the 20-day MA to finish last week and gave the Live Cattle complex a technical boost to begin the week. Cash this week has been quiet up to this point with no bids or offers in the country. With the improved futures prices, the feedlots will be asking more money and hoping for at least steady with the October futures. The delivery period for the October contract began on Monday and there were no deliveries posted last night against the contract. With the cash averages last week near 230 in the North, this is definitely something to keep an eye on now that the futures have worked to an over $3 premium to that cash level. With the lower cash market and the basis flipping to negative, many feedlots will keep cattle on feed longer, increasing carcass weights and weekly beef production. Carcass weights are not being released due to the government shutdown, but the latest data that was released showed steer and heifer weights 16 pounds larger than a year ago and 36 pounds heavier than the 3-year average. This morning, boxed beef was higher with choice being quoted at $364.53, up $1.19 on the day and select was $0.94 higher at $348.91. Seasonally, boxed beef stabilizes in this time period and works sideways to higher through the holiday season.
Feeder Cattle: The Feeder Cattle futures have been the leader of the cattle complex to start the week and have now gained more than $11.000/cwt over the last three trading sessions. The April and further deferred contracts posted new contract highs today. Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins posted on X that there was another case of New World Screwworm detected in Mexico. This case was 170 miles from the U.S. border which continues to feed the idea that the U.S. and Mexico are far from a timeline to reopen the border. While the Feeder Cattle futures rocketed higher in the final hour of trade yesterday before the announcement was made, the news must have been out to some of the traders. The CME Feeder Cattle index has recovered slightly over the past few days after falling nearly $6 in three days last week. Through Monday’s sales, the index is quoted at $364.24 and just $3.37 below the record high of $367.61.
Lean Hogs: Lean Hog futures started the week with small losses in the nearby contracts and small gains in the deferred months on Monday. Today, all contract months closed lower with December losing 1.100 and February suffering the biggest loss of 1.275. The Lean Hog index is down $1.68 since last Friday currently at $102.02, but still at a $4.17 premium to the October futures which expire next Tuesday. With the government shutdown still in place we will not see the pork export data or the Commitment of Traders Report until the government resumes session. With the absence of these reports, the futures will rely heavily on what the pork cutout prices and cash hog prices trade at. The pork cutout is currently at $107.35, and cash hogs continue to trade under the $100 level. With new crop corn in the feed supply and favorable growing conditions, look for hog weights to start increasing rapidly, creating more hogs being available to the cash market.
Corn: Corn futures continue to be stuck in a sideways range just below the 20-day MA. The WASDE report that is scheduled for this Thursday is currently in jeopardy as the government shutdown will prevent this report from being released. Export inspections were released yesterday and showed another good week of Corn shipments. Total shipments were 63.0 million bushels for the week ending October 2. This was near the top end of the range of guesses and nearly 8.0 million bushels ahead of the 10-week average. The USDA crop progress data is also on hold with the current government shutdown, but private analyst Reuters has corn harvest at 29% complete nationally, which is a gain of 18% during the week. The Corn market continue to search for news and without the normal USDA reports, there is less news than normal. With harvest continuing to progress and the charts bumping their head on technical resistance, the Corn market has turned to a choppy sideways trade until there is news or a fundamental change to the market.
Closing Prices
Dates to Remember
October 9- WASDE Report (pending)
October 14- October Lean Hog Expiration
Hog Fundamentals
Cattle Fundamentals
Cash Cattle Markets
CFTC Disaggregated COT Report
As of: 9/23/2023
Live Cattle Markets
December Live Cattle finished back above the 20-day MA yesterday. Support is at the 20-day MA of 235.125 and then 232.450. Resistance is at 241.350.
Feeder Cattle Markets
October Feeder Cattle reached their highest level in over a month today. Resistance is at 367.150 and then the contract high of 369.375. Support is at the 20-day MA of 356.100 followed by 353.100.
Lean Hogs Markets
December Lean Hogs continue to hold at the 50-day MA. Support is at the 50-day MA of 86.100 and then 85.575. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 88.350.
Corn Markets
December Corn has failed to settle above the 20-day MA. Resistance is at the 20-day MA of 422 1/2 followed by 428 1/4. Support is at the 50-day MA of 414 3/4 and then last week’s low of 410 1/2.